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Poll: GOP Headed for Big Win on Tuesday, Although Democrats Make Gains

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Republicans are heading into election day with their lead on the "generic" congressional ballot somewhat narrowed, but still running ahead of the Democrats among those Americans who are most likely to vote, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Oct. 25-28. (Story; Poll Data).
Those likely voters say by 49 percent to 45 percent that they would choose the Republican candidate in their district with 2 percent answering "other" or "neither" and 3 percent having no opinion. The margin of error is 3 points.
That represents a slight gain for the Democrats who trailed by 49 percent to 43 percent in the Post/ABC's Oct. 3 poll. At the beginning of September, when the campaign season kicked off in earnest, Republicans had led by 53 percent to 40 percent.
VotersThe gain, which the Post said was probably not enough to head off the Republican drive to pick up or surpass the 39 seats they need to take control of the House, most likely shows Democrats are beginning to get more engaged as election day approaches, chipping at the monopoly that Republicans have had most of the year on voter enthusiasm.

In an analysis of competitive races across the country, the Post said that 19 Democratic-held seats currently lean towards the Republicans, 47 are considered "toss-ups" and another 38 lean towards the Democrats but are in "potential jeopardy."
The New York Times reported Friday that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and groups aligned with the party "have unleashed a last-minute paroxysm of spending in competitive House races in the final days of the campaign that has them outpacing Republicans" and said it appeared to result from a calculated decision to conserve campaign cash for the final few weeks of the campaign.
But it was evident from the Post/ABC poll that an "enthusiasm gap" still exists. When all registered voters are asked the question about which party's candidate they support -- and not just those considered most likely to vote -- the Democrats lead by 49 percent to 44 percent.
That disparity extends to the results the poll showed when voters were asked which party they preferred based on several different criteria.
Asked which party voters trusted to do a better job coping with the main problems facing the country in the next few years, 45 percent of likely voters chose the Republicans while 41 percent picked the Democrats, with 10 percent answering "neither" and the remainder saying both or expressing no opinion.
But when all registered voters are asked, 45 percent choose the Democrats and 40 percent choose the Republicans.
On handling the economy, likely voters favor the Republicans by 47 percent to 43 percent, but when all registered voters are asked, the Democrats come out on top by 47 percent to 42 percent.
Forty-eight percent of likely voters say the Republicans better represents their own values compared to 44 percent for the Democrats, but those numbers are almost reversed when all registered voters are asked.
Democrats and Republicans are about tied among likely voters on the question of which party is more concerned with their needs, with the Democrats at 45 percent and Republicans at 44 percent. Democrats edge Republicans among likely voters on the question of who better understood the economic problems people are having by 44 percent to 42 percent, (the remainder in each case are in the "both/neither" category or expressed no opinion). Among all registered voters, the Democrats lead by double-digits on those two questions.

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ialbel

Seems we have some here who may be in panic mode. "We the people" is a good place to start ...When the president labels the "WE" as the enemies I think a line has been crossed. This election is a chance to denounce the arrogant ideologue who currently resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. While he would like to stay a bit longer this election can serve as his eviction notice. Now, "WE" the landlords must worry about what damage he can do until he finally leaves. This election is the most important for the USA in my lifetime. Apparently many Americans are also awakened and ready to be heard. Ayn Rand said, "Civilization is the progress toward a society of privacy. The savage's whole existence is public, ruled by the laws of his tribe. Civilization is the process of setting man free from men." The problem with one post here is that the writer equates charity with government. This takes charity and turns it into government largesse. Where is the morality in that? Remember, this is the most charitable nation on earth and that is not the province of only liberals. This is not true and we should not demonize the rich since this exposes our greed and jealousy as well. "WE" need to unite as Americans again, but the left is so divisive and covetous that we are evolving into a nation of polarized camps. "WE" need to find our common identity and restore faith in our nation. Government cannot do this. Obama cannot do this. We may now see a swing back towards individual responsibility. Hopefully government will follow.

November 01 2010 at 10:57 AM Report abuse +4 rate up rate down Reply
vobox3343

I just wonder what you guys will be doing when absolutely nothing gets done. No democratic gains no Republican gains - just gridlock. You actually need more Republicans in the Congress and Senate to obstruct? The ones you have in are already doing nicely, thank you. Are you planning a recall? Or, will you finally realize what eight years with a Republican administration, Congress and Senate should have taught you? How about the oil spills, war dead, mining deaths, lowered wages and crumbling infrastructure. By all means, let's switch - at out own peril.

November 01 2010 at 10:53 AM Report abuse -2 rate up rate down Reply
tbwr4

Tuesday can't get here soon enough. Been waiting 2 years to vote for change I can believe in. Neighbors loosing homes, friends loosing jobs, everyone loosing confidence in false promises, and a failure in the nations capital to do anything about it except to give all the money away to supporters as they could. No more passing bills under the table, and voting them in behind closed doors. No more government mandated health care. No more financial bailouts. No more letting CEO's / crooks off the hook. No more lies about ending the war, and forgetting about our own US boarders. No more giving special treatment to illigals than tending to our own US citizens. No more borrowing from China to pay our bills. No more higher taxes to pay for things no one wants to pay for. No more liberal, tax and spend, progressive, democrates telling us whats best for this country. Tuesday can not get here soon enough!

November 01 2010 at 12:42 AM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
sitokhan1

If the Republicans take back Congress we will see paralysis of government on an unparalleled scale. No matter how average Americans are hurting, all they will care about is investigating every part of Obama's Presidency no matter how much it costs. We'll have more racist laws like Arizona, and we'll fall further behind CHina.

October 31 2010 at 11:58 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
warren

This is not a defence of anybody its an opinion and if you are naming people of one party only as culprits of longevity and corruption then I would say maybe you are just a partisan with tunnel vision and nothing would take that R brand off you.Don't ever call yourself independent unless you have actually voted for more than one label in you life.

October 31 2010 at 11:47 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
BIFF JONES

Why do Republicans keep denying that the economy has gotten better, while all economic indicators have shown the economy growing stronger Republicans and their conservative hacks at Faux News continue to twist and manipulate the facts. There is little doubt that Obama has a excessive liberal agenda which needs to be reigned in, but he did not cause this mess and he has done some good things to get the economy turned in the right direction. The problem here is Obama is a Democrat the way Clinton was a Democrat and it wouldn't matter if they solved all the country's problems, created world peace, and made everyone a millionaire, Republicans would still hate them. That's just the way it is.

October 31 2010 at 11:28 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
warren

Barney Frank did not become head of the house banking committee until after 01/2007 and Chris Dodd did not become chairman in the Senate until after 01/2009.If you look at it with this perspective you are saying the housing problem was not building before that and all these exotic financial instruments where created and exploded in about a year.Let us all suspend reality and believe this.

October 31 2010 at 10:31 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to warren's comment
ellingt5

Please do not try and defend Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Anthony Weiner, Charlie Rangel, Maxine Waters, Barbara Boxer, Blanche Lincoln, Chuck Schumer or any of the career politicians that got us into this mess to save their careers. They forgot who put them in office and who they work for. They should each be ashamed for not adhering to their oath of office. They should have been fired years ago. They believe it is their seat and they are entitled to it. Well it is our seat and we will decide who really represents the American people!

October 31 2010 at 10:52 PM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
rann948

I have been forced to do something that I have not done since I started voting 40 years ago. I voted a straight ticket. Republican. While there may be some good intentions in the Obama agenda, I see it as divisive, a financial disaster, and an impediment to getting the economy going again. If the republicans drove the car in the ditch, the democrats filled the ditch with murky water. I only hope the new republicans and the blue dog democrats can become the voices of sanity and not be lured into pay-back mode.

October 31 2010 at 9:47 PM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to rann948's comment
Kenneth

Your comment is interesting. You are right about the Obama agenda is a financial disaster it the form of out of control spending. Government can not create jobs that is fact unless they hire government employees.The democrats state in their argument that the Bush tax cuts did not create many jobs they are correct since unemployment was around 5%. The ones that were not working were not qualified for the jobs that were available.When the younger generation does not want to finish high school or go to college they fill most of the unskilled labor jobs. that leave skilled or jobs requiring higher education. They also state that Bush spent money (True) since government was controlled by one party spending went unchecked, now we have the reverse. All his liberal ideas are negative to economic or business growth. Heathcare bill that makes companies offer a certain quality of insurance (this is an expense) Possible cap and trade another possible business expense. all business expenses have to be dealt with in two ways raise the cost of your goods or services or reduce labor costs. During a week economy the last thing any company wants to do is raise prices which only leaves one choice. They pass a bill that small business can take out loans. What small business is going to want to add debt during these times with weak revenue. The problem with the people we elect they have never run a business most of them have never held a real job.

October 31 2010 at 10:17 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
ellingt5

I too voted straight Republican for the first time. I made my decision when they pushed the Health Care Bill through on Christmas Eve with sleazy deals, backroom bribes and ignored the American people. After Pelosi arrogantly walked through the crowd with the large gavel, I became politically active for the first time in my life. I cannot stomach what they have done to our country. They have called innocent, hardworking Americans and police officers racist. They have sued Arizona for trying to secure our borders and protect us. Our pres has insulted, demeaned and defamed half of the people he was elected to represent. I don't trust polls since I personally have never been polled. Everyone MUST get out and vote and we need to protect our votes from fraud, ACORN and the black panthers!

October 31 2010 at 10:30 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
angiebarnes919

Why have people forgotten HOW we got here. It isn't all Obama fault. Please people fact check, research 4 yourself. The Reps put us in debt, they did not pay for the war (lied about that) young men and women killed or wound. Where is thier recovery? Medicare prescription bill, reduced taxes for the rich, wow The Reps don;t care about you most of us middle class. I would not vote for any Reps. They have said for the next 2 year there will be no govering. They will spend the next 2 yrs trying to get Obama. In the meantime we will continue to loss jobs and homes, continue to get sicker, and on and on. Some of you who are on the blog and blaming Obama, you maybe one of those who lose your job, your home, a love one, your healthcare. It's easy to blame Obama, but what about the people you are voting for on Nov 2. They have sold you a LIE and you have fallen for it. GOD HELP US ALL. Are there any sane, rational people out there????

October 31 2010 at 8:11 PM Report abuse -3 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to angiebarnes919's comment
Kenneth

The Democrats have sold you a lie that they can fix things and all will be better. I do not care who you put in power none of them can fix the problem. What are they going to fix? how are they going to fix ? cut taxes, throw tax money at the problem sit back and watch. The problem is one party control when the Republicans were in we had unchecked spending now we have the same thing with the democrats. You place both parties in office to balance and control the spending. As for the economy and jobs that is up to the people and business. it is almost impossible for government to fix either one since they do not and can not control either.

October 31 2010 at 9:43 PM Report abuse +6 rate up rate down Reply
geyserrecords

So it is observed that our country is split. One half of the country sees it one way and the other sees it another...given a few points of disparity. Can't we accept these facts? Not sure. I'm Florida Independent and lean towards Republican. My sister is proudly California Liberal. We love our country equally. We truly want what is best for our country, but we see the light differently. We respectfully and completely disagree, but we do agree that our concerns are for the betterment of the country. Why do we have such a divide? Because we are free to think. How do we compromise? We vote and majority wins. What bothers me is that I have often times heard about possible voters fraud by ACORN. I hope this is not the case and that we go into every election with fairness for the candidates. Stealing an election is unfair and not what this country is about. I am hoping for a fair election, which would then show the true majority and the wishes of the true majority, which even if I am against and do not believe in their views, would have won fair and square.

October 31 2010 at 6:40 PM Report abuse +11 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to geyserrecords's comment
JohnR

geyser, I don't believe any accusation against Acorn was ever shown to be true. And, they were forced to disband due to the false accusations. Even those much-played shock-videos were shown to be fakes.

October 31 2010 at 11:08 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply

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