Governor, Senate Poll Roundup: Looking at the Closest Races

A flood of new polls on this year's key governor and Senate races came out Sunday and Monday, and here are the ones that showed the tightest races and those where the margins are larger, but the outcome is still in at least some doubt. (You can find details of these polls, and links to them, further down this posting).

-- One point separates Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet and Republican Ken Buck in the Colorado Senate race, according to Public Policy Polling. Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research gives Buck a four-point lead.

-- The race for governor in Connecticut, where Republican Jodi Rell is stepping down, is a tight one between Republican Tom Foley, a former ambassador to Ireland, and Democrat Dan Malloy, the mayor of Stamford, according to surveys by Quinnipiac University, Public Policy Polling and Rasmussen Reports.

-- The Florida governor's race is also a nail-biter. A Quinnipiac poll has Democrat Alex Sink, the state's chief financial officer, ahead of Republican newcomer Rick Scott, a former health care executive, by a point. A Sunshine State News poll puts Sink ahead by three points.

-- One of the most closely-watched races in the nation -- the Senate contest between Democrat Harry Reid and Republican Sharron Angle -- is headed for a "photo finish," according to Public Policy Polling. A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll has Angle ahead by 3 points.

-- In Ohio, Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland, whose approval ratings had sunk along with the state's economy, trailed former Republican Rep. John Kasich for much of the campaign season, but surveys from Quinnipiac and Public Policy Polling now have them separated by a point. The Ohio Poll from the University of Cincinnati differs somewhat. That poll, conducted Oct. 27-31, has Kasich ahead by a little over four points. A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll has Kasich ahead by 4 points.

-- Democratic incumbent Patty Murray, seeking her fourth term, never could put much distance between herself and Republican Dino Rossi in the polls, usually holding a lead over Rossi that was within the margin of error. The difference between the two is still within the margin of error, but in Public Policy Polling's latest survey, this time it is Rossi who has the edge. A McClatchy/Marist Institute poll over the weekend gave Murray a one-point advantage. Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research has Murray two points ahead.

There are a number of races still close, but not as close as the ones we mentioned above:

-- Some recent polls in Alaska suggested that Republican insurgent Joe Miller, who defeated Republican incumbent Lisa Murkowski for the GOP nomination, was starting to see his numbers slide. The latest Public Policy Polling survey puts him ahead of Murkowski and Democrat Scott McAdams by 7 points each, even though nearly 6 in 10 voters have an unfavorable view of him.

-- In California, it looks like the Democrats go into election day with the advantage in both the governor and Senate races, but we put it in this category because Public Policy Polling's final survey of the race has the leads of Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Jerry Brown and three-term Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer at five and four points respectively. A SurveyUSA poll that surfaced late Monday had the two Democrats ahead by bigger margins, although it also showed a bigger number of undecided voters.

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-- The Colorado governor's race, which was shaken up when former Republican Rep. Tom Tancredo decided to jump in as a third-party candidate, looked like it was getting close for a while, as Tancredo started to pick up Republican votes from the collapsing candidacy of GOP nominee Dan Maes. A Public Policy Polling survey points to a victory by Democrat John Hickenlooper, the mayor of Denver, although his margin right now is five points. A Fox News/ Pulse Opinion Research poll has Hickenlooper leading by three points.

-- The Republican candidates for governor and Senate in Illinois both have modest leads in the latest Public Policy Polling survey, and appear to be favorites, but the outcome is not certain in a pair of contests where voters did not like any of the candidates. Republican Mark Kirk has a 4 point lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias in the Senate race, while Republican Bill Brady leads Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn by 5 points in the governor's race. A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll has Kirk ahead by 4 points and Brady by 6 points.

-- Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick has held varying leads in recent polls in his bid for re-election in Massachusetts, where economic woes, as they have for many governors, took its toll on his approval ratings. He still leads Republican Charlie Baker in the three-way race (which includes Democrat-turned-independent Tim Cahill), but a Western New England College Polling Institute survey has his lead at five points.

-- In the Minnesota governor race, Democrat Mark Dayton, who served one term as the state's senator before deciding not to run again, looked like he was getting the race in hand in recent polls, and he may still. But the latest Public Policy Polling survey had him ahead of Republican Tom Emmer by only 3 points.

-- The polls have consistently shown a tight race for the governorship in Oregon between Democrat John Kitzhaber, who is a former two-term governor, and Republican Chris Dudley, a political newcomer best known for his years in the NBA. A SurveyUSA poll over the weekend had Kitzhaber ahead by seven points, but given that previous surveys by other pollsters showed the race to be closer, the outcome still looks uncertain to us.

-- In Pennsylvania, Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak appeared to be enjoying a surge in the Senate race against Republican Pat Toomey, a former GOP congressman and onetime head of the conservative Club for Growth. The latest Quinnipiac and Public Policy Polling surveys each have Toomey ahead by five points which looks to be enough, but not necessarily out of reach.

-- Most pollsters seem to believe that West Virginia's governor, Joe Manchin, has stabilized his lead over Republican businessman John Raese in the contest to fill the Senate seat left open by the death of Robert Byrd. Manchin is very popular with voters, but he has had to swim against the current of anger in the state at President Obama and national Democrats. Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling gave Manchin leads in the four-to-five point range.

You can find more details on these polls below.

Alaska

POLLS FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY:

Republican Senate nominee Joe Miller is seen unfavorably by 59 percent of voters, but a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 30-31 still has him ahead in the three-way race with 37 percent, followed by Democrat Scott McAdams and write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski tied at 30 percent each. Three percent are undecided or prefer someone else. The margin of error is 2.5 points.

An irony of the race is that, in contrast to Miller, McAdams is seen favorably by 50 percent and unfavorably by 30 percent, with 20 percent not sure of their opinion of him.

PPP asked, and answered the question: "How can McAdams be so much more popular than Miller yet still be trailing the race? ... It's because 92 percent of the small group of voters that does like Miller is planning to vote for him. But only 56 percent of the voters with a positive opinion of McAdams are intending to cast their ballots for him, while 31 percent of them are going for Lisa Murkowski."

PPP said the candidacy of Murkowski, who decided to maker her independent bid after losing the nomination to Miller, may be helping Miller's Republican cause instead of hurting it by getting her support at McAdams' expense.


California

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Democrats appear to be retaining their edge in the governor and Senate race, although the numbers have tightened somewhat, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 29-31.

Democrat Jerry Brown leads Republican Meg Whitman in the governor's race by 51 percent to 46 percent, with 3 percent undecided. Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer leads Republican Carly Fiorina in the Senate race by 50 percent to 46 percent, with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.3 points.

A plurality or majority of voters have overall unfavorable views of Brown and Whitman, while they are split about Fiorina. Voters disapprove of the job Boxer is doing as senator by 50 percent to 40 percent, with 10 percent not sure.

Although the horse race margins have narrowed somewhat, PPP said "the odds of an upset in one or both of these races are better than they were a week ago but remain pretty small."

A SurveyUSA poll, conducted Oct. 26-31, has Brown ahead of Whitman by 48 percent to 37 percent, with 6 percent preferring another candidate and 9 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.1 points. In the Senat race, Boxer leads Fiorina by 46 percent to 38 percent with 6 percent preferring some other candidate and 10 percent undecided.

Colorado

POLLS FROM MONDAY AND THIS WEEKEND:

Republican Ken Buck and Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet are a point apart in the Senate race, with Buck leading Bennet by 49 percent to 48 percent, with 3 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 30-31. The margin of error is 3 points.

In the three-way governor's race, Democrat John Hickenlooper leads American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo, a former longtime Republican congressman, by 48 percent to 43 percent, with 8 percent for the official GOP nominee, Dan Maes, and 1 percent undecided.

PPP says that, in the Senate race, "Neither candidate has much in the way of crossover appeal so it's all going to come down to whether more Democrats or Republicans vote."

As far as the governor's contest, even though the collapse of support for Maes has made this more of a two-way race, PPP says that effectively having two Republicans in the race is still having an impact with Hickenlooper able to count on 87 percent of the Democratic vote, while Tancredo attracts a lesser 71 percent of Republicans with 15 percent of them still backing Maes.

A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll, conducted Oct. 30, has Buck ahead by 50 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate and 1 percent undecided. In the governor's race, Fox has Hickenlooper leading Tancredo by 47 percent to 44 percent with 6 percent for Maes, 1 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided.

A McClatchy/Marist Institute poll conducted Oct. 26-28 has Buck leading Bennet by 49 percent to 45 percent with 3 percent for some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. The poll says, "Almost half of registered voters in Colorado -- 48 percent -- are very enthusiastic about voting on Tuesday. Conservatives are more enthusiastic than liberals. Republicans are slightly more so than Democrats."

Connecticut

POLLS FROM MONDAY AND THIS WEEKEND:

Democrat Richard Blumenthal is maintaining his lead over Republican Linda McMahon, running ahead of her by 53 percent to 44 percent with 3 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 25-31. The margin of error is 3.2 points.

The governor's race is much tighter, with Republican Tom Foley leading Democrat Dan Malloy by 48 percent to 45 percent, with 1 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided, according to Quinnipiac. The margin of error here is also 3.2 points.

"The late deciders are breaking for Tom Foley. There has been a big shift among independents in the final week of the campaign toward the Republican," said Quinnipiac's Doug Schwartz.

Rasmussen Reports, in a poll conducted Oct. 31, has Blumenthal leading McMahon by 53 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Last week, Blumenthal's margin was 56 percent to 43 percent.

In the governor's race, Rasmussen has Foley edging Malloy by 48 percent to 46 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate and 5 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points. Last week, Malloy led by 49 percent to 46 percent.

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 27-29 has Foley leading Malloy by a statistically-insignificant 49 percent to 47 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.6 points.

"A look inside the numbers makes it clear that attacks on Malloy, rather than an increase in voter affection toward Foley, are what has made this race so competitive in the final days," said PPP. At the beginning of the month, voters had viewed Malloy favorably by a 50 percent to 29 percent margin with the remainder not sure. In the new poll, 40 percent see him unfavorably while 39 percent see him favorably, with the remainder not sure. Foley is seen favorably by 41 percent and unfavorably by 38 percent, with 21 percent not sure. Foley has a double-digit lead among independents who make up 31 percent of the sample.

In the Senate race, Blumenthal leads McMahon by 54 percent to 43 percent, with 3 percent undecided. Independents are split in the Senate race. "A lot of indys in Connecticut are clearly planning to vote a Blumenthal/Foley ticket," PPP said.

Florida

POLLS FROM MONDAY AND THIS WEEKEND:

The outcome of the state's much-covered three-way Senate no longer seems in much doubt, with Republican Marco Rubio leading the field, but the governor's between Democrat Alex Sink and Republican Rick Scott is going down to the wire, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 25-31.

Sink leads Scott by 44 percent to 43 percent, with 4 percent preferring someone else and 9 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.2 points. Five percent of voters say they may yet change their minds.

"In the governor's race, the victor will be whoever wins a majority of the 9 percent of likely voters who remain undecided at this late date," said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown.

In the Senate race, Rubio leads independent Charlie Crist by 45 percent to 31 percent, with 18 percent for Democrat Kendrick Meek, 1 percent preferring someone else and 4 percent undecided. Crist is taking 47 percent of the Democratic vote, leaving Meek with 42 percent.

A Sunshine State News poll, conducted through Sunday, put Sink ahead of Scott by 49 percent to 46 percent with 5 pewrcent preferring someone else and 1 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.49 points.

A University of South Florida Polytechnic poll conducted Oct. 23-27 for New York Times-owned newspapers in the state showed Scott Sink in the governor's race by 44 percent to 39 percent with 6 percent not liking either candidate and 11 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.

Illinois

POLLS FROM MONDAY:

Republicans have modest leads in both the governor and Senate races in a campaign where voters had little affection for any of the candidates, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 30-31.

In the Senate race, Republican Mark Kirk leads Democrat Alexi Giannoulias by 46 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent for Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones, 3 percent for libertarian Mike Labno and 7 percent still undecided.

In the governor contest, Republican Bill Brady leads Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn by 45 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent for Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, 4 percent for independent (and former Democrat) Scott Lee Cohen, 2 percent for Libertarian Lex Green and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error for both races is 3.4 points.

A majority of voters disapprove of the job Quinn is doing as governor and pluralities have unfavorable opinions of the other three candidates.

"Voters don't like any of their choices but they like the Democratic ones even less than the Republican ones and because of that look like they'll give the GOP a chance to do better in these offices," said PPP's Dean Debnam.

A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 30 has Kirk leading Giannoulias by 46 percent to 42 percent, with 6 percent for Jones, 2 percent for some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. Sixteen percent of voters say they could still change their minds. In the governor's race, Brady leads Quinn by 44 percent to 38 percent, with 6 percent for Cohen, 4 percent for Whitney, 2 percent for some other candidate and 6 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3 points.

Kentucky

POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:

Republican Rand Paul has opened up a 55 percent to 40 percent lead over Democrat Jack Conway in the Senate race, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30. Five percent are undecided.

"Over the last month of the campaign this went from being a relatively competitive race to a not so competitive one," PPP said. "That didn't have a ton to do with Rand Paul ... The shift is more a
reflection of Jack Conway's image with Kentucky voters being shattered in the closing days," in part due to a backlash against his ad depicting Paul as worshipping a deity named Aqua Buddha in his college days.

Massachusetts

POLLS FROM SATURDAY:

Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick leads Republican Charlie Baker in the governor's race by 42 percent to 37 percent with 11 percent for independent Tim Cahill, 3 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein and 6 percent undecided or refused to respond. The margin of error is 5 points. (Western New England College Polling Institute, Oct. 24-28).

Minnesota

POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:

Democrat Mark Dayton leads Republican Tom Emmer in the governor's race by 43 percent to 40 percent, with 15 percent for independent Tom Horner and 3 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 27-29. The margin of error is 2.2 points.

PPP notes that none of the three candidates are in positive territory when it comes to their favorability ratings, and that "neither Dayton nor Emmer really has any crossover appeal."

"Minnesota's a Democratic state so if the Democratic candidate wins all the Democrats and the Republican candidate wins all the Republicans and the independents split pretty evenly the Democratic candidate's going to win. That's where the contest stands right now so Emmer will have to make up some ground in the final days if he's going to pull this one out."

Nevada

POLLS FROM MONDAY AND THIS WEEKEND:

The Senate race between Republican Sharron Angle and Democrat Harry Reid is heading for a "photo finish," with Angle at 47 percent and Reid at 46 percent, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 30-31. The margin of error is 3.8 points. Scott Ashjian, who is running on the Tea Party of Nevada ticket to the dismay of many Tea Party activists, is polling 3 percent with another 3 percent preferring other candidates. However, it is not clear Ashjian is taking votes from Angle, who rode the Tea Party wave to the GOP nomination. Matched head-to-head, Reid leads Angle 49 percent to 48 percent with 3 percent undecided.

Angle and Reid are both seen unfavorably by a majority of voters.

PPP says that those who voted early favor Reid by 50 percent to 46 percent, while those yet to go to the polls favor Angle by 48 percent to 40 percent. "Democratic voters in Nevada really hold Reid's fate in their hands by whether they show up at the polls tomorrow or not," PPP said.

In the governor's race, PPP's poll showed Republican Brian Sandoval cruising to victory with a 55 percent to 44 percent lead over Democrat Rory Reid.

A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 30 has Angle ahead of Reid by 48 percent to 45 percent, with 5 percent for some other candidate, 2 percent for neither and no undecideds. The margin of error is 3 points.

A Mason-Dixon Research poll conducted Oct. 25-27 for the Las Vegas Review-Journal has Sandoval leading Reid by 54 percent to 38 percent with 2 percent preferring some other candidate, 2 percent liking none of the candidates and 4 percent undecided. Sandoval is getting 90 percent support from fellow Republicans while Reid attracts support from only 74 percent of Democrats. Sandoval leads among independents by 61 percent to 29 percent with the remainder for other candidates or undecided.

Ohio

POLLS FROM MONDAY AND THIS WEEKEND:

The Ohio governor's race is being watched closely by many in the political world, including President Obama who would like Democrats to be holding the seat in this pivotal state when the 2012 elections roll around.

Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland has clawed his way back from running behind in the polls much of the year and now trails Republican John Kasich by one point, with Kasich running ahead by 47 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent preferring someone else and 6 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 25-30. The margin of error is 3.4 points. Only 5 percent of voters say they may yet change their minds.

"Gov. Ted Strickland has come from far back," said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown. "The question is whether he can get over the hump. He has momentum on his side. John Kasich has the historical tendency of undecided voters to break against well-known incumbents at the very end of a campaign."

The Senate race has never been close. Republican Rob Portman leads Democrat Lee Fisher by 56 percent to 37 percent, with 1 percent preferring some other candidate and 6 percent undecided, according to Quinnipiac.

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 28-30 has Strickland pulling to within one point of Kasich. Kasich now leads Strickland by 49 percent to 48 percent, with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.7 points.

"What Strickland has done over the last two months is bring the base home, PPP said. "He's now winning 87 percent of the Democratic vote, up from only 78 percent in the previous poll. Democrats also look like they'll now account for a larger share of the electorate, as the party's voters have increased their interest in turning out as the election has moved closer."

Strickland made his gains despite the fact that voters disapprove of the job he is doing by 50 percent to 41 percent, with 10 percent not sure of their opinion. Kasich isn't winning any popularity contests either: 43 percent see him favorably while 42 percent see him unfavorably, with 15 percent undecided.

PPP says, "If Kasich does end up winning it will be because he, like most Republican candidates nationally and particularly in the Midwest, is cleaning up with independents" among whom he has an 18 point lead over Strickland.

In the Senate race, PPP says Republican Rob Portman leads Democrat Lee Fisher by 57 percent to 39 percent, with 4 percent undecided.

The University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, conducted Oct. 27-31, has Kasich leading Strickland by 52 percent to 47.7 percent. The margin of error is 3.2 points.

A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 30 has Kasich ahead by 48 percent to 44 percent, with 4 percent for some other candidate and 4 percent undecided. Nine percent of voters say they could still change their minds. The margin of error is 3 points.

A Columbus Dispatch poll conducted Oct. 20-22 has Kasich ahead of Strickland 49 percent to 47 percent with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.3 points. The same poll has Portman leading Fisher by 46 percent to 40 percent, with 4 percent undecided.

Oregon

POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:

Democrat John Kitzhaber has pulled ahead of Republican Chris Dudley in the governor's race, leading him 48 percent to 41 percent with 2 percent for other candidates and 8 percent undecided, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted Oct. 23-28. The margin of error is 4.2 points.

Two polls from last week showed the governor's race to be a dead heat.

A poll by Davis, Hibbits & Migdall reported by the Portland Tribune conducted Oct. 24-25 has Dudley ahead of Kitzhaber by 46 percent to 43 percent with 2 percent for other candidates and 10 percent undecided. A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 25 has Dudley leading Kitzhaber by 49 percent to 46 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.

Pennsylvania

POLLS FROM MONDAY AND THIS WEEKEND:

Republican Pat Toomey heads into election day with a 50 percent to 45 percent lead over Democrat Joe Sestak, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Oct. 25-30. Five percent are undecided. The margin of error is 2.8 points. Fifteen percent of Sestak supporters and 12 percent of Toomey backers say they may yet change their minds.

"The Senate race has been neck-and-neck most of the way with Toomey slightly ahead," said Quinnipiac's Peter Brown. "It looks like that is how the candidates will cross the finish line."

The governor's race, by contrast, has not been close and Republican Tom Corbett leads Democrat Dan Onorato by 52 percent to 42 percent, with 6 percent undecided.

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 30-31 has Toomey leading Sestak by 51 percent to 46 percent, with 4 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 points. In the governor's race, Corbett leads Onorato by 52 percent to 45 percent, with 3 percent undecided.

"Joe Sestak and Dan Onorato each made impressive comebacks but it looks like they'll end up falling short," said PPP's Dean Debnam. "That Barack Obama is such a liability in the state only two years after taking it by double digits says a lot about how much the political climate has shifted and his ability to gain back support in places like Pennsylvania will be key for his 2012 prospects."

Washington

POLLS FROM MONDAY AND THIS WEEKEND:

Democratic incumbent Patty Murray and Republican Dino Rossi remain locked in a tight race for the Senate, with Rossi leading Murray by 50 percent to 48 percent, with 2 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 29-31. The margin of error is 2.2 points. Murray and Rossi have been running this closely for months, but this is the first time Rossi has the lead, although it is within the margin of error.

As is the case for many Democrats in other states, Murray is bucking a big "enthusiasm gap" between her party and the Republicans. Neither candidate has been able to break through and attract voters from the other party, and both have tepid numbers when it comes to whether voters see them positively or not.

A Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research poll conducted Oct. 30 has Murray leading Rossi by 49 percent to 47 percent with 4 percent preferring some other candidate and no undecideds. The margin of error is 3 points. Three percent of Rossi backers and 4 percent of Murray supporters say they could still change their minds.

A McClatchy/Marist Institute poll conducted Oct. 26-28 has Murray ahead by 49 percent to 48 percent with 3 percent preferring some other candidate or undecided, according to . The margin of error is 4 points. Sixty-two percent of Republicans describe themselves as enthusiastic about voting compared to 52 percent of Democrats.

West Virginia

POLLS FROM MONDAY AND THIS WEEKEND:

Democrat Joe Manchin leads Republican John Raese by 50 percent to 46 percent with 1 percent preferring some other candidate and 3 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Oct. 31. The margin of error is 4 points. Last week, Manchin led by 49 percent to 46 percent.

Fifty-three percent do not regard the issue of Raese and his wife having a home in Florida as very or at all important, while 44 percent do, with 3 percent undecided. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has taken aim at Raese on the subject with a campaign ad. Forty-eight percent regard Raese's views as extreme while 37 percent consider them mainstream, with 15 percent not sure. Fifty-three percent say they consider the race to be a referendum on President Obama's agenda. Sixty-seven percent of Republicans see the contest that way compared to 41 percent of Democrats. Manchin has been contending with a strong tide of sentiment running against Obama and national Democrats in the state.

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted Oct. 30-31 HAS Manchin leading Raese by 51 percent to 46 percent, with 3 percent undecided. The margin of error is 2.4 points.

While PPP says that Manchin has been weighed down by voter disapproval of President Obama and national Democrats, his showing owes to several factors: Raese has not been a particularly appealing opponent, the "enthusiasm gap" between the parties is not as evident here, and Manchin "has made enough conservatives comfortable voting for him."

Wisconsin

POLLS FROM THIS WEEKEND:

Republican Ron Johnson is leading Democratic incumbent Russ Feingold in the Senate race by 52 percent to 45 percent with 1 percent favoring some other candidate and 2 percent undecided, according to a McClatchy/Marist Institute poll conducted Oct. 26-28. The margin of error is 4.5 points.

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