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Do Voters Keep Democrats on a Short Leash? Parsing History and the Midterms

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Two presidents, two traumatic crises, two half-terms judged by what didn't happen instead of what did. The two presidents are George W. Bush and Barack Obama, who respectively prevented further terrorist attacks on American soil and a repeat of the Great Depression.
And that's where the similarities end. When the nation is attacked or at war, citizens rally around the president. When the economy is terrible, they desert the president – even if, as last week's exit polls show, less than a quarter blame him for the mess.
Democrats should be on notice: They're on a short leash with the American people. Two years in charge of the White House and Congress, and boom, what have you done for us lately? Not enough. You're outta here, in one-third the time voters gave Bush and the GOP to control Washington and work their will on the country.
Are Democrats on a shorter leash than Republicans? Is there a trust gap between the parties? Are we now a center-right country, or a country that swerves back and forth, or a country merely going through the "hate" phase of its love-hate relationship with government?
It sure seems sometimes that voters don't give Democrats the benefit of the doubt. You can enumerate any number of mistakes made by Democrats and Obama, but none to date compare with invading Iraq for reasons that didn't pan out, and then mismanaging the war in a spectacular and tragic manner. Yet Bush was re-elected in 2004, at the height of the violence and chaos, and so was the GOP Congress.
Bush himself was the fourth Republican elected to two terms as president since Franklin Roosevelt. Democrats have had exactly one: Bill Clinton. And while voters gave four more years to Republican Ronald Reagan's vice president, George H.W. Bush, they denied that extension to Democrat Al Gore, Clinton's vice president (the asterisk being that Gore won a half million more votes even as he lost the electoral vote).
Some non-partisan analysts say there are too few presidents to draw the conclusion that Democrats get the short end. Sometimes history turns on personalities, tactics or historical circumstances. The Bushes were aided by weak Democratic opponents in 1988 and 2004. Gore ran in a nation fatigued by the Clinton scandals and impeachment. Jimmy Carter faced serious problems including a recession, U.S. hostages in Iran and a Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.
As for all those two-term GOP presidents, Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report, said they were elected and re-elected to balance out a Congress held by Democrats for 40 years until Republicans took over in 1995. He also said the creation of Social Security and Medicare – high-profile Democratic successes that expanded government during the Roosevelt and Johnson administrations -- gave rise to an "anti-government counterweight."
That was exacerbated in the 1970s. James Thurber, head of American University's Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, said the Watergate scandal created a trust-in-government gap that persists to this day. "Mainly trust has been going down. That affects whoever is in the majority," he said.
It is a particular disadvantage to be the party more identified with big or activist government. Ronald Reagan increased federal spending and federal workers. George W. Bush added a new Medicare benefit to cover prescription drugs and begged Congress to pass the $700 billion bank bailout. Clinton, the Democrat, declared that "the era of big government is over," shrank the federal workforce and balanced the federal budget. Even so, in the public mind, Democrats are firmly entrenched as the party of big government.
That image has been reinforced mightily during Obama's first two years. His term to date has been marked by expansions of government to cope with the economic crisis he inherited (the bank and auto bailouts, the stimulus package and tighter regulation of Wall Street), as well as new government roles in health care and the student loan program that Obama had promised in his campaign. It would be shocking, really, if all of that had not given rise to the tea party movement and escalating resistance to federal spending and regulation.
Democratic strategist Matt Bennett, a vice president of the centrist think tank Third Way, said it may be hard to document a historical pattern of built-in bias against Democrats. But at the moment, he said, "it feels like there is a structural barrier to Democrats. It feels right now like we're pushing a rock up a hill all the time with much of the electorate."
It's a fact-based feeling. The Republican base in 2010 "is twice as big as ours," Bennett said. His group examined voter ideology in the national exit poll and found that liberals were 20 percent of the electorate in 2006 and 2010. Conservatives, meanwhile, went from 32 percent in 2006 to 41 percent in 2010. Furthermore, while Democrats held on to 55 percent of moderates, that was worse than their 60 percent in 2006.
The sharpest swing came among independents, who voted 56 percent to 38 percent for Republican House candidates. That was almost completely reversed from 2006, when Democratic House candidates carried independents 57 percent to 39 percent, and considerably worse than Obama's performance with independents in 2008 (he won them 52 percent to 44 percent).
Independents are swinging back and forth rapidly and dramatically. In the era of cable, the Internet and social networking, Rothenberg said, it is easy to make people angry and to raise money for ads that stoke the anger. "The speed of news and the polarization in society make it harder for politicians these days," he said.

Republicans were beneficiaries of the new volatility this year, but they could lose their hold on independents as quickly as Democrats did. In fact it already happened to them once, in the 2006 midterms. So far in the 21st century, there is no default setting for the GOP.
Maybe voters were more patient or maybe just more traumatized, but in 2002, 14 months after the 9/11 attacks, Bush gained eight seats in the House. Obama has lost more than 60 after facing a crisis that was arguably just as grave – the seemingly imminent collapse of the U.S. banking system and economy.
Each of those events was profoundly frightening in its way. The unforgettable horror of the attacks and the shock of suddenly realizing our oceans could no longer keep us safe. Then, seven years later, the daily announcements of mass layoffs, the stomach-lurching disappearance of savings and home values or even homes themselves, the questions (how bad can it get?) and the specter of another terrible new normal taking hold. The country's future seemed balanced on a razor's edge.
Bush benefitted from Americans uniting against the common enemy of al Qaeda. Obama not only has been punished for the tanked economy, he and his party and even a few Republicans have been punished for taking the bold steps that staved off catastrophe. Democrats and Obama have a shot at electoral redemption in 2012. If that doesn't work, their best option is to take a tip from Bush and leave judgments to history. By then, he has said, "We'll all be dead."
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95 Comments

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suddencall

Its called cutting your nose off to spite your face. A total show ignorance ,putting the same people back in that caused your problem in the first place, now we have a dead lock for the next two years,so the suffering will drag out.

November 13 2010 at 12:52 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Mary Pollard

Now that the Republicans have taken over the House, you people are going to be in for the surprise of your life. The republicans are going to cut the benefits for Social Security, Medicare and unemployment benefits. They told you this before the election that they were going to cut spending. These programs make up 75% of the budget. Forget "death squads". Medicare will not pay for any experimental cancer drug or anyone on life support who can not get better. On senator stated he would "shut the country down" if the health bill was not overturned. Do you realize what he is saying. If he can't have things his way he will cause thousands of people to be out of work. Of course he will still be working and getting a nice salary. I hope you don't work for the government.

November 10 2010 at 1:17 AM Report abuse -1 rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to Mary Pollard's comment
bbellerophon2010

I think it makes no difference. We can't afford to keep the current benefits anyway.

November 10 2010 at 12:27 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
seismedia

@Mary "you people are going to be in for the surprise of your life. The republicans are going to cut the benefits for Social Security, Medicare and unemployment benefits." I love surprises! Do you promise we can get rid of these flawed programs, get our good people off of the dole and out of the victimhood mindset so that they can truly experience the richness of the American Dream? Sorry if I doubt your optimism, but people have been talking about freeing ourselves from these burdens for decades.

November 10 2010 at 4:34 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
dc walker

LBJ was the last president from the Democratic Party, the next three were much further left, with the present one so far left as to be in his own party.

November 09 2010 at 9:03 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
Kenneth

The problem the people have not kept any of their state or federal representatives on a leash. They elect their local officials and stay on them constantly by attending their meetings etc. They elect state and federal and then go about their business. Would you hire an employee to your business without keeping an eye on what they are doing? Elected officials are no different they are your employee you pay them with your tax dollars. some can be trusted on a leash others need a short leash with a choker chain.

November 09 2010 at 8:47 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
yankeei

I appreciate the electorate in states that overturned the predictable. I'm in a blue-dog state, and the races were very close. I hope those elected will remember the viable opposition when they go to Washington. There's no great mandate for you here in CT. Remember Pelosi and her arrogance. Hoping for the best in CT.

November 09 2010 at 7:18 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
Michael

Could it be that chronically acting in disregard of the voters' expressed opinions on policy gets you a bit of blowback? What are the limits of denial here, anyway?

November 09 2010 at 6:56 PM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply
catalogsplus

It seems clear that Dems need to be kept on a very short leash. Every time they take power the far left liberal agenda including spending, big govt, abortion, and amnesty for illegals quickly begins to take center stage and America boots them again. And in all fairness, when the religious right tries to hijack the GOP it does not fare much better. People want conservative spending, small government, and far less intrusion into our personal lives. Not so hard to understand.

November 09 2010 at 6:09 PM Report abuse +6 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to catalogsplus's comment
Mary Pollard

People say they want smaller government but the minute something bad happens to them, they want the government to fix it. Many people are unemployed and continue to want unemployment benefits way beyond the 26 weeks. They want the government to help them keep their homes, find them a job, pay for health services if they get sick etc. You can not have it both ways.

November 10 2010 at 1:24 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
Lobo Viejo 7

Every American should hold all politicians (local, State and Federal) responsible everyday of their political lives...a short leash yanked hard regular. Sitting on our collective citzens butts is what caused this mess we find ourselves in in the first place.

November 09 2010 at 4:39 PM Report abuse +18 rate up rate down Reply
rosematt

Wow. These people in the media and the Dem leadership really don't get it do they? No, it isn't that the voters have the Dems on a shorter leash than they do the Republicans. It is that the Dems pushed through highly unpopular legislation by parliamentary trickery and backroom payoffs while promising to be transparent in their negotiations. It is about the Dems in general, and this administration in particular, absoluting refusing to work in anything resembling a bipartisan manner. The quote from Obama, "Elections have consequences and I won" struck a sour chord with many voters. Add to that the appearance that the Dems are apologists for our percieved shortcomings constantly. One of the reasons Reagan was such a popular president is because he DIDN'T constantly trash our country and apologize to other countries. No, it isn't that the voters have the Dems on a shorter leash. It's that the voters are intolerant of a party that shows such arrogance and disregard for the people that voted them in. And the media and the Dems are still trying to avoid the truth that is obvious to almost everyone else in the country.

November 09 2010 at 4:35 PM Report abuse +25 rate up rate down Reply
jwmeritt

"The two presidents are George W. Bush and Barack Obama, who respectively prevented further terrorist attacks on American soil and a repeat of the Great Depression." How do you know that? It is easy to tell "no further terrorist attacks on American soil" but how the heck can you prove "prevented a repeat of the Great Depression"?!?!?!? Or maybe you just buy into what each CLAIMED? Perhaps there would not have been a Great Depression" anyway. Don't know.

November 09 2010 at 4:32 PM Report abuse +8 rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to jwmeritt's comment
Mary Pollard

If you didn't know that we were on the brink of a depression, then you don't know economics. If people can't pay back money loaned to them for mortgages everyone loses. Housing prices go down, cities and states don't get taxes paid and they have no money for services. If more and more people have no income after awhile the government can not pay unemployment benefits and can not pay for services and other benefits. Even social security is threatened because it is financed by the wages of the people working now. Jobs may never come back to the level they were because of outsourcing. Instead of blaming the government, why don't you attack the companies that have sent your jobs to China and other countries.

November 10 2010 at 1:36 AM Report abuse -2 rate up rate down Reply
dlraetz

The difference is that they don't run huge national debts, and their people pay for their health care through taxes that goes to the health care system--not into a general mish mashed pot.

November 10 2010 at 9:40 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

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