Republicans' Midterm Wave Didn't Drown Colorado Democrats

One week after the Republican wave, GOP fingers are still pointing in Colorado, where the party saw mixed results in the 2010 midterm elections.

There was good news for Colorado Republicans, for sure. GOP candidates defeated two Democratic House members, Rep. Betsy Markey in the 4th Congressional District and Rep. John Salazar in the 3rd CD. Republicans also took a narrow majority in the state House, winning it back from Democrats. They defeated incumbent Democrats in the state treasurer and secretary of state's office.

And their gubernatorial candidate, Dan Maes, managed to poll 11 percent, slightly more than necessary to keep the GOP from becoming a minor party under state law. That 11 percent and the fiasco behind it is a large part of the finger-pointing.

That's because two big prizes -- offices that won't be up for grabs for six years in one case and four years in another -- escaped the GOP's grasp.

Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet clung to his seat by fewer than 16,000 votes over GOP challenger and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck after a race marked by nasty TV ads and more than $30 million in outside spending. He gets a six-year term and his counterpart, Democratic Sen. Mark Udall, isn't up for reelection until 2014.

And Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper easily captured the governor's race over flawed GOP candidate Maes and renegade American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo.

"Here in Colorado, you had this island that got wet and wasn't submerged," said Rob Witwer, a former GOP state lawmaker and co-author of "The Blueprint: How the Democrats Won Colorado (and Why Republicans Everywhere Should Care)."

Republicans are left asking how it happened. How much did Maes' candidacy impact Buck's loss? Or did Buck do himself in with a series of verbal blunders, including saying on "Meet the Press" that people choose to be gay?

Should they blame the tea party for backing Maes, who ended up being a public-relations nightmare of a candidate with a range of skeletons in his closet? Blame the GOP kingmakers (whoever they may have been) for forcing state Sen. Josh Penry out of the governor's race a year ago, when former Congressman Scott McInnis' plagiarism problems were a figment of the imagination?

Denver Post columnist Vincent Carroll blamed the GOP's right wing for Buck's loss, saying former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton would have made a better candidate. Buck narrowly defeated Norton in a vicious primary. "The conservative surf was up, and the Colorado GOP couldn't get its big boards off the beach," Carroll wrote.

Over at Red State, Erick Erickson blamed the National Republican Senatorial Committee for Buck's loss -- and for the GOP failure to win back the U.S. Senate. "The NRSC, shortly before the end of the Colorado Primary, sent millions to Jane Norton freeing her up to attack Ken Buck to be anti-women. Michael Bennet then picked up Norton's campaign attacks and clobbered Buck," Erickson wrote. Federal Election Commission documents indicate the NRSC gave only $42,600 to Norton in the final days of the race.

Erickson noted that the Republican Governor's Association coordinated get-out-the-vote efforts in many states, but the RGA didn't play in Colorado with Maes' candidacy seen as a losing effort. Meanwhile, the GOP gained governorships in four surrounding states -- New Mexico, Wyoming, Kansas and Oklahoma.

But it may all come back to an informal but integrated Democratic power structure created in the early part of the decade and documented in "The Blueprint."

"I think the bigger question is, despite the TV ads, was the infrastructure below that in place to help Republicans capitalize on a wave year and the answer was no," Witwer said. "The infrastructure helps Democrats outperform the year."

That effort includes a range of 527 campaign finance groups spending money on advertising, as well as independent organizations designed to help get out the vote. Hispanic and women voters provided a huge boost to Bennet that pre-election polls may not have discerned. And the GOP ground game just wasn't that strong, Witwer said.

"At a certain point, saturation advertising gets diminishing returns," he said. "Any additional gains need to be made at the doorstep, on the phone. Democrats and Republicans matched each other on the airwaves but on the ground, Democrats once again dominated."

Witwer noted that one of the most successful Republican stories of the midterms is American Crossroads, a national group that raised money to support GOP campaigns. That group spent more than $5 million opposing Bennet and more than $838,000 supporting Buck.

"If you look at the brain trust behind Crossroads, these are people who 10 or 20 years ago would have gone to the party," Witwer said. "Now they're going to outside groups."

Even the tea party may be a model for the GOP in Colorado and elsewhere. Witwer noted that group abandoned Maes for Tancredo when it became clear that Maes had too much baggage.

"Both parties are still stuck in this 20th century mode of having a central office, a central leader, a central message," Witwer said. "When the leader stumbles or the party stumbles, the whole organization grinds to a halt. With the tea party, it just adapts."

Meanwhile, moderate Republicans who feel left out in Colorado may see one other bright spot this week. Hickenlooper appointed former Republican Gov. Bill Owens (whom many considered plenty conservative back in his day) to as one of the statewide chairs of his transition team.