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A Second Poll This Week Says Voters Don't Want to Re-Elect Obama

1 year ago
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Bruce Drake
Bruce Drake
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Another poll -- this one by McClatchy/Marist Institute -- has weighed in on President Obama's 2012 re-election prospects and found that 48 percent of registered voters say they'd cast their ballots against him while 36 percent would support him for another term, with 16 percent undecided. The poll was conducted Nov. 15-18.
It comes on the heels of a Quinnipiac University survey, conducted Nov. 8-15, that said 49 percent of registered voters did not think Obama deserved a second term compared to 43 percent who said he did, with 9 percent undecided.
As with the Quinnipiac poll, one of Obama's major weaknesses right now is with independents. They oppose his re-election by 50 percent to 30 percent, with 20 percent undecided. In the Quinnipiac survey, independents said Obama didn't deserve re-election by a 51 percent to 35 percent margin, with 14 percent undecided.
Barack Obama"As the electoral page turns from the midterms to 2012, President Obama starts off, not surprisingly, in a somewhat tenuous position," says Marist's Lee M. Miringoff.
Obama continues to suffer from the economic pounding being absorbed by Americans, with voters disapproving of his handling of the issue by 55 percent to 42 percent, with 4 percent undecided. That suggests, as we've noted before, that 2012 polls like these are more of a reflection of voters' moods today than how they might feel when election day gets closer in 2012.
The New York Times noted this ray of hope for Obama: Ray C. Fair, who is known for his use of econometric models as the basis for political predictions, says the early signs look good for his re-election.
Fair is expecting significant improvement in the American economy and told the Times that while he doesn't want to "push this too hard . .. The model certainly suggests that if the economy is good and improving as an election approaches, it's very difficult to defeat an incumbent president."
However, whether there is enough improvement is hardly a certainty. A new projection from the Federal Reserve predicts that the current 9.6 percent unemployment rate will fall only to 9 percent by the end of 2011 and 8 percent by the time of the presidential election, meaning more than 10 million Americans will remain jobless through that period, according to the Washington Post.
Where McClatchy/Marist and Quinnipiac differ is on the number of Obama's fellow Democrats who would like to see him challenged for the party's nomination. McClatchy/Marist says Democrats and Democratic leaning independents don't want to see him challenged by a bare 46 percent to 45 percent margin, with 9 percent undecided. Breaking that down, self-identified Democrats don't want to see a challenge by 51 percent to 41 percent, with 8 percent undecided, but that margin is tempered by the Democratic-leaning independents who, by 56 percent to 33 percent, do want to see a challenge.
Quinnipiac said Democrats and what it described as Democratic leaners did not want to see a challenge by a 64 percent to 27 percent margin, with 9 percent undecided.

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Marist/McClatchy asked the Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents whether they would want a challenger to be more conservative or more liberal, and the question produced a split decision: 40 percent opted for "more conservative," 39 percent said "more liberal" and 22 percent were undecided. Democrats in that group wanted a more liberal candidate by 42 percent to 36 percent with 22 percent undecided, while Democratic-leaning independents preferred someone more conservative by 50 percent to 30 percent, with 20 percent undecided.
When it comes to who Republicans and Republican-leaning independents favor for the 2012 GOP nomination, the poll produces the same top tier of four candidates that others have: Mitt Romney at 20 percent, Mike Huckabee at 16 percent, Sarah Palin at 13 percent and Newt Gingrich at 10 percent.
In the second tier, New Jersey's new governor, Chris Christie, gets 9 percent, followed by Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 5 percent, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels at 4 percent, Indiana Rep. Mike Pence and former New York Gov. George Pataki at 3 percent, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty at 2 percent and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour at 1 percent.
The poll also tested a three-way 2012 race pitting Obama against Sarah Palin and an independent candidacy by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, even though Bloomberg has said he would not make such a run because a third-party candidate was doomed to be a spoiler. Obama is on top with 45 percent to 31 percent for Palin and 15 percent for Bloomberg, with 9 percent undecided. Bloomberg would cut into Palin's Republican base, taking 23 percent of that vote, which is actually slightly more than the 20 percent he'd get from independents.
Sixty-one percent don't want Bloomberg to run, but that's probably a less brutal verdict than a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday that said 56 percent of New York City voters would not like Bloomberg to have Thanksgiving dinner with them.

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Filed Under: Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Michael Bloomberg, Sarah Palin, Obama Administration, 2012 President, Poll Watch, Newt Gingrich, Barack Obama
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56 Comments

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regina7761

mitt romney should be the next president of the us---if grayson ran against obama that would be great---i think it will be romney and rubio in 2012

January 01 2011 at 2:17 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
jenniferkhyams

I am so sick of reading Romney in the run for 12, come on.....Newer fresher meat is out there with way better ideas. Look at the health care system Romney ran through. Let's start talking about and checking out Pence, Santorum, Thune, new faces not the ones that have been in and have done nothing to forward us - Romney, Huckabee, please Newt - Really!!!!

December 15 2010 at 11:30 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
cillastem

The problem with poll is that they only poll 8,000 or more for opinions. Which will never be able to speak for million of people.

December 01 2010 at 10:19 AM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
ftq73

I did not vote for Obama the first time and I will not vote for him the second time as I was completly correct in what I expected out of him. That being said I cant say that means I will vote republican next time. Time for a third party.

November 30 2010 at 11:29 AM Report abuse +4 rate up rate down Reply
shelcreates2

The problem with polls and surveys is the lack of important information for the readers. Percents of opinion are not followed by: total number of people responding out of all citizens; socio-economic level of group; racial makeup of group; geographical area survey given; and more I can't think of now. The danger of reports of this nature is that people and some policies are influenced by the perceptions of manipulated statistics. An explanation of the source of the data gathering groups would show if they had a special reason for research or funding from a bias source. Don't believe the numbers given to you, the reader, without being aware that all parts of government and its' partner the Media, all manipulate American thoughts.

November 30 2010 at 12:30 AM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply
angiebarnes919

There was also a poll stating the same thing about Bush, but the americans voted him back in, which was a huge mistake. Fools that most of us were and are.

November 29 2010 at 8:57 PM Report abuse -5 rate up rate down Reply
ettu

There is strength in numbers. If you don't vote, your giving the numbers game to the other side.

November 29 2010 at 7:18 PM Report abuse +6 rate up rate down Reply
Joe

I did not vote for Canidate Obama because I did not think he was expreienced enough to be President. I won't vote for President Obama because I don't feel he has proved me wrong. He did nothing to foster Bipartisen support. He has changed nothing in Washington, it is still business as usual.

November 29 2010 at 5:07 PM Report abuse +14 rate up rate down Reply
mistere

And we will....forget about the "thought we could" it will and it is happening. YOu have to quit focusing on the negativity the news media is putting out and dig for yourself as I have to find the real truth as to what is happening... What is happening is 17% unemployment, Triple the deficit that the last Prsident, Spent more money than all the Presidents before him combined, taking over of companies, close down anyone who disagree with him, call them racist, the rest of the world REALLY laughing at us and hate us, divided the country, spends more time abroad then in the white house, letting terrorist get off scot free, These are just a few of things that are "HAPPENING" Obama is imcompatent that is what is really happenning. Please look them up its all facts.

November 29 2010 at 1:00 PM Report abuse +10 rate up rate down Reply
dolphgreen

Is it not amazing? All these liberals who HATED Ronald Reagan now quote him. REMEMBER President Reagan did the WHIP AS- with a Democrat House & Senate. HE WAS A REAL AMERICAN. let's don't split hairs with this so called President. Jimmy Carter is elated, finally a President who will take away his crown as ABSOLUTE WORSE" in history & Carter may live to see that happen. God Bless this great nation!!

November 29 2010 at 12:46 PM Report abuse +16 rate up rate down Reply

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