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Did Obama Make Tax Cuts for the Rich Permanent by Kicking Them to 2012?

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With all the grace of a baggy-pants comedian doing pratfalls, the Obama administration agreed to an awkward compromise with Republicans in Congress on Monday night extending the Bush tax cuts for upper-income Americans (families earning more than $250,000) for an additional two years. The White House trumpeted the temporary payroll tax reduction that it won in exchange as well as the extension of unemployment benefits.

But Barack Obama's advisers apparently also believe that the president will ultimately prevail by dumping the tax-cut issue into the middle of the 2012 re-election campaign. Having failed to arouse the voters during the congressional elections with the tax-cuts-for-the-rich refrain, Obama somehow believes that the issue will rebound in his favor in 2012.

Is this another installment of a White House soap opera titled "Smart Presidents, Foolish Choices"? Or is this a tactical retreat as clever in its own way as Bill Clinton's feints and fast breaks after his 1994 electoral debacle? A good way to find out is to look at some plausible scenarios about how the income-tax-cut issue might play out in 2012.

The Comeback Kid: Obama's breakthrough moment comes during the final 2012 debate when he turns to his millionaire Republican opponent and simply asks, "How are you going to spend the additional $100,000 or so that you personally will get next year from extending the Bush tax cuts?" The Republican nominee (and it does not matter if the name turns out to be Mitt or Sarah or Haley) looks as puzzled as John McCain did when he was asked in 2008 exactly how many homes he and his wife own. By framing the argument in personal populist terms, Obama finds his voice.

So Obama is comfortably re-elected and the Democrats actually pick up a Senate seat even though few GOP incumbents are on the ballot. But the House (because of the seat shift from redistricting) narrowly remains Republican.

Flush with victory, Obama takes on the Republicans in a lame-duck veto fight over extending the tax cuts. But with the Republicans holding firm in the Senate (the filibuster problem) and the GOP controlling the House, the terrain is actually not much different for a victorious Obama in late 2012 than it is today.

With Congress and the White House deadlocked, tax rates for all Americans return to the Clinton levels on Jan. 1, 2013. Faced with an immediate paycheck uprising, Democrats in Congress begin publicly grousing over White House stubbornness and ideological inflexibility. A Democratic senator up for re-election in 2014 captures the mood of the caucus when he says: "Obama may never be running again. But I sure am. And I won't be blamed for raising the taxes of hard-working American families."

As a result, a bipartisan congressional majority agrees to extend all the tax cuts until the end of 2014. And guess – just guess – what will happen in 2014? Cost to the Treasury: an estimated $700 billion over 10 years for continuing the rate reductions for families earning more than $250,000.

Some Call It Surrender: Instead of "Drill, baby, drill," the chant at the 2012 GOP convention is "Tax cuts for all. Tax cuts forever." With Obama trailing in all national polls and the Senate Democrats in full panic, House Republicans make a pre-election push in early September to make the tax cuts permanent.

Rather than threatening a veto, Obama summons the bipartisan congressional leadership to the White House for a summit. (Sound familiar?) Without asking for anything in return (sound familiar?), Obama dramatically offers a compromise extending the tax cuts for all Americans until the end of 2016. Afterward, a senior Obama adviser is quoted as saying, "Now it's Hillary's problem."

Shellacking Revisited: Despite their 2012 expiration date, the tax cuts play a small role in the Obama re-election campaign. With the Great Recession turning into the Endless Recession, tax cuts and deficits take a back seat to the issue of never-returning jobs. On Election Night, the map looks like Michael Dukakis was the nominee instead of Obama with Democratic victories limited to the Pacific Coast and the Northeast.

During the lame-duck session of Congress, Obama repeatedly threatens to veto any tax-cut extensions for the wealthy. But with the Democrats facing another dismal decade like the 1980s, White House advisers warn the president that the votes may not be there to sustain his veto as shell-shocked liberals run for cover. Reluctantly, Obama signs legislation to make the Bush tax cuts permanent in late December 2012.

Morning in America: Under this scenario – brought to you by those wonderful folks who concocted Recovery Summer – a resurgent economy rewards Obama with the biggest presidential landslide since Ronald Reagan carried 49 states in 1984. Persuaded by the power of the president's oratory and daunted by the size of the Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress, the Republicans do not even try to save the tax cuts for families earning more than $250,000 a year.

Odds of this happening: About as likely as tax cuts for the rich paying for themselves without adding to the deficit.

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93 Comments

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pinapples2

I think that this country is going somewhere and it is not where it needs to be. how can you go to bed at night knowing that you are responsible for people committing crimes because they cannot find jobs or even keep a steady job. This country is totally ridiculous! The Repoblicians and yes I spelled just as I see it... they are robbing the middle and lower income class blind. It is very said. There are several things that we cannot do but the upper class can at a drop of a dime... there are days that I cannot go to work because I don't have no money for gas... not because I dont' budget but I am a single mother of four and my state is run by old southern nationals and that is another story and it is hard to maintain when you cannot get a break. Last year was the best year of my life I kept my bills paid I had money and I could provide for my family. So now I have to start thinking of a bettter way to provide and stay afloat for my children because the greedy goats are thinking of their college buddies and close friends. It is said enoguh that they are getting more out of this situation than anyone else. We the people make up this country and it is sad that we really do not have a voice unless we are rich or better yet make over $250,000. I only wish I could make 30,000 to survive. My insurance that is taken from a 2174.00 a month income is 300.00 dollars for family coverage. I have house note, car note, car insurance, utilities, cell phones, and groceries. My little income a month is like pocket change to the people that make over $250,000 ; hell anybody that makes 75,000 a year... Middle class and lower class struggle too hard to be shut out. When will we get a break... I would love to have my head above water...

December 09 2010 at 10:01 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
mcdarmm

I'm so sick that the "rich" are considered those making 250,000. if you live in highly taxed Westchester county in New York State and have children you are not rich by any means. Why is it that the govt. acknowledges that the poor in this area can still be considered poor even though they are 200% higher than the National income level that is conisdered poor (because of the ocst of living) but the upper bracket is not adjusted. Let's face it all income brackets should be adjusted by region.

December 09 2010 at 7:41 AM Report abuse -1 rate up rate down Reply
erosetree0312

We’re witnessing an instructive "only in "America" story in the making: Only in America can the democratic process beget the enrichment of the few in exchange for the impoverishment of the many. In our fellow 3rd world countries, the people dream of democracy as the cure for domination by a greedy, heartless privileged class.

December 09 2010 at 6:38 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
lizardlip41

If President Obama allows the tax cuts for the rich to continue he will lose my support for a second term. End of discussion !

December 08 2010 at 10:12 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to lizardlip41's comment
pinapples2

I think that he has no choice in that matter. It is said and I understand where you are going with this. But the republicans are not leaving any windows open for him right now. So he is basically thinking of something I am sure of it. He is trying to get what he thinks is critical right now for the American economy.

December 09 2010 at 10:04 AM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
bettyboop2994

i did vote for obama but he should not let tax be cut, people need it and too help people to get a job, lots of people need a support all time.

December 08 2010 at 12:10 AM Report abuse -1 rate up rate down Reply
Michael

High earners (as distinct from the truly wealthy, who already have a pile) do not stuff cash in mattresses, which is about the only way you could prevent a social benefit. What does occur is that cash earnings not spent on consumption go to investments, which builds jobs; or savings, which provides the capital for consumer and small business lending. I fail to see that the money would serve society better if it went into an overpaid, underworked Federal bureaucrat's pension fund.

December 07 2010 at 6:20 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
Drego

Dear Madam Speaker: I oppose acceding to Republican demands to extend the Bush tax cuts to millionaires and billionaires for two reasons. First, it is fiscally irresponsible. Adding $700 billion to our national debt, as this proposal would do, handcuffs our ability to offer a balanced plan to achieve fiscal stability without a punishing effect on our current commitments, including Social Security and Medicare. Second, it is grossly unfair. This proposal will hurt, not help, the majority of Americans in the middle class and those working hard to get there. Even as Republicans seek to add $700 billion to our national debt, they oppose extending unemployment benefits to workers and resist COLA increases to seniors. Without a doubt, the very same people who support this addition to our debt will oppose raising the debt ceiling to pay for it. I support extending tax cuts in full to 98 percent of American taxpayers, as the President initially proposed. He should not back down. Nor should we.

December 07 2010 at 5:41 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
TANNERLB1

I voted for Obama in 2010, but I won't again. He completely abandoned those of us who supported him. Really sad.

December 07 2010 at 5:06 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
algetz312

Is my memory failing me, or do I remember Republicans being totally upset about deficits for the year leading up to the 2010 election - and is my memory failing me when I can't recall deficits being a Republican concern during 8 years of the Ronald Reagan and 8 years of theGeorge W. Bush presidencies? Am I missing something, or are deficits no longer a concern when it comes to continuing the tax breaks for the wealthiest? What happened to the small businesses that were supposed to start up as a result of the Bush tax cuts to the wealthy? Have I missed those, too?

December 07 2010 at 4:45 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
luvtopleaze

The government spends $1.50 for every $1 it collects from taxes. If you tax the rich more, the government will spend 150% of what they get from taxes. The deficit keeps growing. So what's the point of increasing taxes on the rich if it serves no purpose other than pissing them off and hurting the economy in the long run ?

December 07 2010 at 4:42 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply

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