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Will Liberals Challenge Obama Amid the Snows of New Hampshire?

1 year ago
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Walter Shapiro
Walter Shapiro
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Liberal Democrats are, by nature and history, a perpetually disappointed voting bloc. They are either consigned to wail in the political wilderness (the Bush years and the Reagan years) or else the fruits of victory quickly sour on their tongues (the triangulating Bill Clinton).
Liberal malaise again afflicts the body politic. According to a recent poll conducted by the Marist Institute for McClatchy News, Obama's approval rating among Democrats has fallen to 74 percent and to 69 percent among liberals. House Democrats are still seething over Obama's tax-cut compromise with congressional Republicans. Howard Dean just sent out a fund-raising letter for Democracy for America praising fellow Vermonter Bernie Sanders for his one-man Senate filibuster against the tax deal: "Bernie Sanders didn't back down against long odds – he had the backbone to stand up and fight for what's right." That is, of course, in contrast to Barack Obama the Trimmer.
These straws in the wind – suggestive rather than conclusive – prompted me to refresh my memories of the grassroots uprising that shaped the modern Democratic Party. This seismic event was neither Howard Dean's antiwar insurgency in 2004 nor even Ted Kennedy's challenge to incumbent President Jimmy Carter in the primaries.
Instead, what today's Democratic restiveness reminds me of is the summer of 1967, when liberal organizer (and later Long Island congressman) Allard Lowenstein tried to find someone – anyone – to challenge Lyndon Johnson for the nomination. Lowenstein and his youthful allies importuned all the leading antiwar senators (Robert Kennedy, George McGovern and Frank Church) before to everyone's amazement the mercurial and elusive Eugene McCarthy volunteered for this quixotic crusade.
The parallels are not exact – history never repeats itself as either farce or tragedy. There is no galvanizing single issue like the Vietnam War. Despite his legislative victories and 1964 landslide, Lyndon Johnson remained an accidental president to many Democrats, the ungainly heir to that which rightly belonged to John Kennedy. Barack Obama, in contrast, electrified Democrats (even many Hillary Clinton supporters) as he romped home with nearly 70 million votes.
But what does feel similar is the combination of growing buyer's remorse among liberals and the fatalistic certainty that Obama will be re-nominated without serious challenge. In their epic political narrative, "American Melodrama: The Presidential Campaign of 1968," three British journalists (Lewis Chester, Godfrey Hodgson and Bruce Page) write, "There were a few who had realized that the emperor had no clothes . . . Such sentiments, however, swam vainly against the tide of 'expert' opinion."
Barring an economic collapse that makes the September 2008 financial meltdown look like the Good Old Days, Obama cannot be deprived of the nomination. The arithmetic simply does not work for any challenger – including (as unlikely as it seems) Hillary Clinton. The combination of the institutional power of a sitting president, the president's overwhelming support among African-American voters and Democratic memories of the tragic consequences of bitter divisiveness (1968, 1972 and 1980) make a replay of the 50-state struggle of 2008 seem ludicrous. The 2012 Democratic nomination belongs to Barack Obama -- assuming he wants it.
But the same thing was true in 1968: Lyndon Johnson would have been – almost unquestionably – the Democratic nominee had he taken the fight all the way to the Chicago Convention. In those days, primaries were rare and many convention delegates had been selected before McCarthy (let alone Bobby Kennedy) had even entered the race. What drove LBJ out of the race was the specter not of defeat but of embarrassment. McCarthy came within 230 votes (including his write-in votes on the GOP line) of outpolling Johnson in the New Hampshire primary. Facing actual humiliating defeat in the Wisconsin primary, Lyndon Johnson made the most stunning announcement in the last half century of presidential politics: "I will not seek and I will not accept the nomination of my party for another term as your president."
If liberals are serious (unlikely) about limiting Obama to one term in the White House, there is probably only one way to do it. And that is to take advantage – as Gene McCarthy did – of the snows of New Hampshire and the affinity of voters in the first primary state to embrace political dreamers. This is the ideal electorate for any putative challenge to Obama: In 2008, according to exit polls, New Hampshire Democratic primary voters were overwhelming white (95 percent), well-educated (81 percent had attended college), affluent (68 percent had family incomes of more than $50,000) and liberal (56 percent).
What it would take is a Democrat far more serious than fringe candidates Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel, who collectively won less than 2 percent of the 2008 New Hampshire primary vote. That mythical Democrat (call him Gene McCarthy Reborn so we don't get caught up in premature name games) should announce at the outset that he is only challenging President Obama in a single state because he does not want to fracture the Democratic Party.
McCarthy Reborn's message would combine praise for the president's accomplishments (health-care reform, saving America from another Great Depression) with the sad conclusion that Obama does not have the skills (natural warmth, strategic vision and political moxie) to be a successful president even if he were re-elected. Dusting off an old Vietnam-era slogan, McCarthy Reborn would urge Obama to "declare victory and go home." And then he would ask the Democrats and independents of New Hampshire to endorse this message to Obama with their votes on primary day.
It takes a rare political leader to renounce ambition – and the belief that all problems can be solved if only the voters would give him another term. But Barack Obama, who gives off no signs these days that he is a Happy Warrior in the White House, is not a typical anything. Sooner or later, Democratic liberals, seemingly dissatisfied with the president that they helped put in the White House, have to make a decision about 2012. Will they take the easy route of grousing to pollsters and in the Democratic caucus – or will they gamble that a miracle can again happen amid the snows of New Hampshire?
Filed Under: Democrats, 2012 President, Liberals, Barack Obama
Tagged: 1968 campaign, 2012 presidential campaign, Barack Obama, bernie sanders, eugene mccarthy, howard dean, liberals, new hampshire primary, obama
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112 Comments

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ajcook111

Liberals are disappointed that President Obama does not always fight hard enough for liberal principles but on balance he has been a good President thus far. Let's hope he ends the war in Afghanistan as soon as possible.

December 15 2010 at 11:04 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
cinnysim

It's a shame that Bernie Sanders will not consider running for president. He is the only politician in this devisive climate who is truly a representative of the people of the United States...even if they don't realize it.

December 15 2010 at 7:11 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
vrd071265

I was a immigrant and naturalize citizen. My son and daughter are Born US Citizen. I want a better life for them and family value. I can go back to my country but they can not. I love this country and it is seventh heaven.

December 15 2010 at 5:33 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
jwosr98

We have A Totally disfunctional government and the only way to change it is with term limits and after the first year in office you are not doing your job you are subject to recall by the people, we need to take the power out of the hands of the politicians and give it back to the people, they have to learn that we are not their subjects we are their employers.

December 15 2010 at 4:57 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
puzzleguy1

The political "calculus" works out like this: If the economy has improved enough to cause voter confidence to rise, then the idea of replacing Obama will be dead on ariival. If that scenario hasn't materialized, then no Dem in his/her right mind will want to head the ticket because they will be sure losers. And then there is this: If the Dem's try to dump Obama, they can kiss the African-American vote good-bye.

December 15 2010 at 4:45 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
marktateusa

Of course liberals will challenge him. They will fail, and so will he. He might as well start looking for a place to live now since come Jan 2013 he's outta there!

December 15 2010 at 4:32 PM Report abuse +6 rate up rate down Reply
notanaxkiller

Over and over I read about democrats causing the defecit. Go back to Reagan who TRIPLED the defecit.

December 15 2010 at 3:59 PM Report abuse -9 rate up rate down Reply
dc walker

The US has lost over $5 trillion in revenues this past decade due to the changes in the tariff schedules. Senator Sanders was the only one who said in his filibuster that the congress made a mistake allowing corporations to leave taking jobs with them and lowering the tariffs to zero allowing them to bring in cheap goods without duty. Will they fix the problem, don't think so, they will continue to blame the other side for stupid income tax cuts/increases. Stop the class warfare fix the tariffs.

December 15 2010 at 3:52 PM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply
sheriffchris

Well I'm glad that republican political pressure is finally getting this Congress and Senate moving along. Liberals make up about 20 % of our country, the tail has been wagging the dog...time to move back to the middle where the rest of us folks actually live !!!!!!

December 15 2010 at 3:13 PM Report abuse +15 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to sheriffchris's comment
sasha

Moving along? How? Your definition of a liberal is more than likely anyone not a core Republican, or 75% of the country. Do not make assumptions about what can happen, because the GOP totally over reached under Bush and they cost the party big time in 2006 and 2008. people rejected this, including many in that 75%. What the conservative wants is someone who would drink a beer with them, someone with average intelligence who is a good guy or gal. People like Reagan, who promised conservatism but delivered huge government growth. The point is to demonize the other side, make big promises and then keep conviincing your own people that what you are doing is best for them, whether it is or not.

December 15 2010 at 3:51 PM Report abuse -6 rate up rate down Reply
MEK

if the economy doesn't improve, I would not be surprised to see Hillary Clinton run against Obama in the primaries. If a liberal democrat runs against him, it will probably illicit from his statements that will be used against him in the general election. And of course, if a liberal wins the primary, it will result in an easy victory for a moderate republican in the general election.

December 15 2010 at 3:07 PM Report abuse +6 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to MEK's comment
Kenneth

I do not think he will be the only one on the democratic primary ticket. The party does not want to risk losing everything.

December 15 2010 at 3:19 PM Report abuse +7 rate up rate down Reply

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