Berlusconi: Will Sex Offender Investigation Finally Do Him In?

LONDON -- He's always been the politician with the proverbial nine lives, surviving scandal after scandal around his personal and business affairs. But as Silvio Berlusconi faces an investigation into a new wave of criminal charges, many wonder whether the jig is finally up for the Italian prime minister.

On Friday, Berlusconi was formally placed under investigation by Italian prosecutors on suspicion of having sex with an underage prostitute. The matter involves claims that Berlusconi paid Moroccan dancer Karima el-Mahroug (whose stage name is Ruby Rubacuori or "Ruby the Heart Stealer") for sex last year at his mansion near Milan -- when she was 17.

As part of the investigation, prosecutors raided a series of properties Berlusconi owns in Milan that were allegedly used to house a "harem" of young women who performed striptease for the prime minister. There, police allegedly found sex toys, expensive jewelry and envelopes stuffed with 20,000 euros ($27,000). For the first time, police documents provide details about the so-called "bunga bunga" orgies that el-Mahroug claimed to have witnessed last year at the home of the prime minister.

The age of consent for sexual intercourse is 14 in Italy. But paying for sex with a woman under the age of 18 is a crime and Berlusconi, 74, could face a prison sentence of up to three years if the allegations are proved. While "Ruby" has denied having sexual intercourse with the Italian leader, she does acknowledge receiving a gift from him of 7,000 Euros ($9,310) plus expensive jewelry on Valentine's Day last year.

Prosecutors want to interview Berlusconi this week and insist that he face trial immediately if charges are merited. (In the wake of all the juicy details, let it not go unnoticed that in November, his government passed a law banning street prostitution. Paging Eliot Spitzer . . .)

I know what you're thinking: "Yeah, yeah. Berlusconi. Prostitutes. What else is new? For goodness sake! The man had a bed named 'Putin'! Are we really surprised by any of this? Next!"

Perhaps so. And Lord knows Mr. Berlusconi has a track record suggesting you can't make this s!&% up when it comes to sex scandals. (See this handy list over at Jezebel.)

But there are reasons to think that "Rubygate" -- as the matter has been dubbed -- may actually have legs. Because this one is different from previous scandals in three key respects.

For starters, we're now talking about potentially indicting the prime minister of Italy as a sex offender.

He's also more vulnerable to potential charges than ever before. On Thursday, a Constitutional Court in Rome stripped the prime minister of some of his immunity protections. The court said that Berlusconi could not automatically invoke a "legitimate impediment" claim exempting him and cabinet ministers from attending trials in progress because of their official duties. Rather, it would henceforth be up to individual judges to decide whether a sitting prime minister can be tried in office.

Finally, the current case isn't just about sex but the abuse of power. Rubygate rose to international prominence last fall when it was revealed that the Berlusconi had called the Milan police in to secure the release of El Mahroug following her arrest for suspected theft. He allegedly told police that the Moroccan runaway was the granddaughter of the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. A conviction for abusing his office could carry a prison sentence of up to 12 years.

Berlusconi, for his part, is denying all of it, alleging that it's part of an ongoing smear campaign and that the charges are "absurd and groundless." On Sunday night, he appeared on television to say the claims could not be true because he has been in a "quiet, stable relationship" with one woman since the break-up of his marriage in 2009.

In the past, Italians have always managed to look past their colorful leader's personal indiscretions. Many Italians -- and not only men -- regard his divorce and sex scandals as "a private matter," saying they judge him by his political views, which stress individual freedom and visceral anti-communism.

But Italy's culture of tolerance towards Berlusconi is slowly changing, with the Catholic Church and women's groups increasingly speaking out against him. Moreover, the new charges come on the heels of WikiLeaks disclosures of a close relationship between Berlusconi and Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, intimating that Berlusconi might be profiting personally from energy deals with Russia. By November, his personal approval ratings were down to an all-time low of 35 percent.

And things have been unraveling politically for Berlusconi for quite some time. In July, his longtime political ally Gianfranco Fini and 33 other legislators publicly broke with him, ending his majority in parliament. In December, Fini engineered a vote of no confidence in the legislative body. Berlusconi survived it -- barely -- by three votes (which many suspected were purchased).

Many observers of Italian politics have noted that even if Berlusconi is voted from office, it's not clear that this will be a good outcome for the nation, as the opposition is divided and weak.

At the same time, Berlusconi has provided tremendous continuity within Italy's notoriously fractious and unstable multi-party political system. He's been in power for the better part of the last 15 years. (It helps that he owns three major commercial TV channels, a bunch of newspapers and magazines, and has -- while in office -- responsibility for all state broadcasting organizations.) So if elections are called, voters may well opt for the "devil they know."

As the BBC's European editor, Gavin Hewitt, put it on his blog: "More than any other current European leader, Berlusconi has defined the culture of his country. If he goes, Italy changes." But to what, exactly?

Ironically, in the midst of all this, a prominent film director denounced Berlusconi over the weekend for creating a climate of "creeping censorship" in Italy. The filmmaker is trying to make a darkly satirical movie about Berlusconi's sexual shenanigans, but claims that funders have been scared off because of government pressure.

Still, should this film ever get the proverbial green light, one can't but help wonder who will play the PM. My money's on James Gandolfini, with a dark horse candidate in Tom Wilkinson.

Anyone?

Follow Delia on Twitter.