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Forget the Obama Budget -- the Real Crisis Ahead Is the Debt Ceiling

1 year ago
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For all the red-ink rhetoric that engulfed Washington Monday with the release of Barack Obama's $3.7 trillion budget, the partisan talking points ("win the future" versus "spending the future") have far more to do with the 2012 elections than the national debt. The economic document that matters right now is not the line items in the 2012 budget, the ever-shifting House GOP proposals to slash as much as $74 billion in government spending this year, nor even the slash-and-burn report of the president's bipartisan fiscal commission.

Far more important for those who worry about America's fiscal future is a little-noticed letter that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner sent to Congress in early January. In white-knuckle language, Geithner sketched out the economic consequences if Congress failed to increase the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling when the federal government runs out of borrowing power some time this spring. As Geithner put it bluntly, "Even a very short-term or limited default would have catastrophic economic consequences that would last for decades."

Ever since Bill Clinton bested Newt Gingrich politically during the 1995-1996 government shutdown, Americans have become blasé about budget brinksmanship. That is why no one is panicked that the current stopgap government spending bill will expire on March 4. So what if federal workers get furloughed for a few days or the government is late in paying its bills? Everyone knows the script governing this political kabuki since Congress is certain to pass temporary funding legislation before Social Security checks (the elderly remember and vote) are delayed.

But a debt-ceiling crisis, which could hit as soon as April, would be far scarier. Without borrowing authority – even for 24 hours – the federal government would default on its debts. What that would mean is that lenders would tack on a risk premium to all future federal borrowing, raising interest rates for decades. "A default would impose a substantial tax on all Americans," Geithner wrote. "Because Treasuries represent the benchmark borrowing rate for all other sectors, default would raise all borrowing costs."

No one responsible in either party who understands elementary economics could possibly want America to default. But this is also an easy issue to demagogue. At the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) last week, Republicans repeatedly compared refusing to raise the debt ceiling to taking away credit cards from a deadbeat. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who is taken seriously as a GOP presidential possibility, actually linked increasing the debt ceiling to Congress approving a constitutional amendment mandating a balanced budget.

The sad truth is that almost everyone in politics wants something from the debt-ceiling fight. Republicans see this as their legislative lever to force Obama to approve spending cuts far beyond those proposed in his budget. Tired of casting tough votes, House Democrats, now in the minority, are apt to argue that it is a Republican responsibility to round up the recalcitrant votes to extend the debt ceiling. Despite Geithner's letter, the Obama White House may refuse to yield to GOP blackmail threats out of a conviction that the Republicans will ultimately back away from the abyss of default.

Voters rarely reward legislators for casting unpopular votes to ward off a crisis. In the view of most mainstream economists, the 2008 bank bailout bill (the reviled TARP) saved the financial system from meltdown. But during the 2010 election season, congressmen in both parties (for instance, defeated Democrat John Spratt and Republican Gresham Barrett, who lost a gubernatorial primary) confided to me that their votes for TARP were the hardest to explain to an angry electorate. At CPAC, veteran Utah Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch, facing right-wing opposition in 2012, repudiated his vote for TARP saying, "Not a lot of people are willing to say they're sorry. But I will."

Any congressional incumbent in either party voting this year to increase the debt ceiling will be a plump target for 30-second attack ads in 2012. Voters mistakenly believe that raising the $14.3 trillion borrowing limit is a license to spend money rather than a way of managing debts and obligations already incurred. A national poll conducted this month for the newspaper The Hill found that 62 percent of likely voters oppose raising the debt ceiling.

That is why the risks of a fatal fiscal miscalculation will only increase as the still uncertain debt-ceiling deadline nears. To put the potential consequences of default in perspective: A 1-percent risk-premium increase in the rates that the federal government has to pay on the money it borrows (the 2012 Obama budget estimates that interest costs already will be $474 billion) probably would cost the nation more than the potential savings from any plausible package of budget cuts.

There are those who believe that a dramatic fiscal showdown this spring -- whether over funding the government or lifting the debt ceiling – will bring the nation to its senses over the risk of annual trillion-dollar deficits. But voters are not there yet. A national poll conducted earlier this month by the Pew Research Center found that fewer than one-third of all adults support cutting federal spending in any major budget category. The only exception (and it is a hard-hearted one) is that 45 percent of Americans are willing to slash the miniscule percentage of federal spending to goes for fighting poverty around the world.

The 2012 presidential election should be the time when Obama and his Republican opponent sketch out for the voters the unpopular choices necessary to staunch the deficit. (Hint: Symbolic gestures like eliminating earmarks or freezing federal salaries do not count). Ideally, whoever is elected next year will win with a popular mandate to take bold action to prevent America from becoming a nation whose national slogan is: "Brother, can you spare a trillion?" The risk, of course, is that in the interim, political gamesmanship will open the last floodgates holding back the Red Sea of debt.

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33 Comments

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oldengineera2

I'd say it is more "spin the future". High speed rail is another one of those 19th century concepts that electrify this administration, like those of Engels and Marx who were famous for advocating spreading other peoples' money around. Both ideas were tried and failed in experiments in the 20th century and deserve their place... in history books. High speed rail and socialism are places where wealth goes to die.

February 17 2011 at 4:30 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
gking3n10

The Democrats ignorred getting a budget passed back last October - a budget for 2011 should have been completed in Oct - now, Congress has to work on the 2011 and 2012 budgets. The Dems were too busy taking care of the unions, the lawyers, the lobbyists, the LGBTs, and everyone else rather than attending to the basic responsibilities of the Government. Obama drastically increased spending in all departments of the Government wasting much of the stimulus funds. Now, he wants that budget set in concrete rather than returning to a lesser figure. While America has to tighten their belts, Obama and his cronies want higher costs and we get nothing from it other than an outrageous bill that we have to pay - but I am sure he has no intention of paying for it on his watch. His ego is out of control.

February 15 2011 at 6:51 PM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to gking3n10's comment
Meg

how about bush payomg for his two wars on out credit card

February 15 2011 at 6:59 PM Report abuse -2 rate up rate down Reply
Michael

There is no need to be concerned with default if we face facts and defer some of the "investments" we cannot afford. A sane approach might be to match expenditures to revenues, which would require zero additional borrowing. Maybe a bullet train from L.A. to Vegas is not quite so urgent as making sure granny's Social Security check does not bounce.

February 15 2011 at 6:47 PM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply
cortney1234

Don't raise the debt ceiling.... Enough is enough

The day will go on... The government needs to START making good decisions. This would force them to

February 15 2011 at 3:00 PM Report abuse +5 rate up rate down Reply
Rob & Kathy

A $3.7 trillion dollar budget. Where will most of this money come from? Most will be borrowed from China. The interest due on this loan will be added to the deficit. Another Obama shell game...

February 15 2011 at 12:05 PM Report abuse +4 rate up rate down Reply
jones3731

Walter, forget the budget?! It's 3.7 TRILLION dollars, walter.

February 15 2011 at 11:45 AM Report abuse +4 rate up rate down Reply
boowah

Why don't we roll the dice and find out? What's the worst that could happen? We default and China dumps dollars like water, making the greenback virtually worthless on the international market! The government stops issuing Social Security checks, driving 40 million into poverty, their subesequent default on their bills causing a massive banking collapse! States stop paying unemployment compensation, impoverishing the 4 million beneficiaries! Our country is essentially bankrupt and we enter a Depression far to deep to ever get out of! The country plunges into Anarchy. looting and killing are rampant. The national Guard is deployed and quickly overpowered, resulting in the mobilization of troops with instructions to open fire! Thousands are killed in the world's biggest blood bath. Senators and Congressmen are targetted by the mobs as having been responsible for the carnage! Most are quickly dispatched with the remainder fleeing the country for their lives! The government collapses and martial law prevails. A dictator emerges from the masses and is swiftly recognized by the army. America becomes a "banana republic" Other than that, what's the worst that could happen?

February 15 2011 at 10:55 AM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to boowah's comment
Michael

I am so reassured that the left never resorts to scare tactics.

February 15 2011 at 6:50 PM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
jdwlor

This is really a schell game about debt,if everyone so concerned about the debt,why do they keep crying about more and more tax cuts. The last adminastration gave away the farm to get relected plus two wars that are not payed for,and people still want more tax cuts.You can't give away your pay check and still expect to pay the bills. I am still laying our financial problems at the republicans door,the first thing and the only thing they can think of is tax cuts,if we are so straped for money then why in hell to give more back,it dosn't make any sesene.

February 15 2011 at 8:49 AM Report abuse -4 rate up rate down Reply
jlopesconcrete

Understand, we as Americans are about to see a major, major collapse in our national monetary system and our normal way of life. Our government has borrowed such a huge amount of money that we will no longer be able to even afford the interest on the loans we've taken out. Of course, you may take a look at our economy and think otherwise. The stock market has had a great year, and unemployment rates have stabilized. But understand, even if all Americans gave away 100% of their income right now it would still not be enough to balance the federal budget! We'd still have to borrow money just to maintain the status quo.

Yes, the U.S. dollar is still "the world's reserve currency." And yes, because of this we are privileged as being the only country in the world that can pay for imported goods with our own money. If you're the Canadian government, for example, and you wanted to buy coal from China, you can't use Canadian dollars to pay for it. You have to buy U.S. dollars first, and then buy your coal. But in America, we can consume as much as we want without worrying about acquiring the money to pay for it, because our dollars are accepted everywhere and by everyone.

This is why we haven't had to produce or export anything to get all the dollars we needed to buy the goods our country required. All we had to do was borrow the money. And now the U.S. government is in more debt than any other nation in the world. What are we doing to repay our debts? You guessed it… We're printing more money. I believe this will eventually anger our creditors, who in turn will stop accepting the U.S. dollar. And that will make all of our imports vastly more expensive. From gas and oil, to clothing and food, you can expect everyday items to get way more costly in the near future...

As soon as other countries start preferring payments in something besides U.S. dollars, the value of our currency will sink.

February 15 2011 at 7:36 AM Report abuse +16 rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to jlopesconcrete's comment
bayleon02

Well written jlopesconcrete. The thing is we are all one big happy global economy now. The economy in the U.S. is not an independent entity and will never be. If we really go down, the rest of the world isn't far behind. It is in China's interests to work with us because we are still a major trading partner for them, and we owe them a bundle. China has profited greatly from the trade imbalance that exists between our two countries, an imbalance that we should work to correct among other things.

February 15 2011 at 4:08 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
ldzpplne

We are no where near the highest amount of debt in the world. You have to look at it not as 14 trillion, but what percentage of our GNP it is. We are way more in debt than we should be, but we are in a lot better shape than a lot of other industrialized countries. Don't listen to the dramatists on the news lol.

February 15 2011 at 6:30 PM Report abuse -1 rate up rate down Reply
sfamilyent

I suggest that the majority of voters have never really had to suck it up and control their spending to live within their means. Americans have become accustomed to living with mortgage, fixed and revolving debt that allows them to borrow from their future revenues. Continually increasing the debt will eventually lead to a default situation. I'd like to think that it might be time for the US to selectively default on some payments... like Medicare, where the costs have risen quite substantially over the years. It is going to hurt, but we've got to stop adding to our debt and start living within our means.

February 15 2011 at 6:19 AM Report abuse +4 rate up rate down Reply
2 replies to sfamilyent's comment
kt3059

sfamilyent.....you aren't talking about this voter or this voters friends. We live within our means. We save for a rainy day..we buy what we can pay for. It is the Government that has the spending problem, has taken from Peter to pay Paul and the house of cards will come down. At the expense of those of us who have paid into programs like SS and Medicare for decades to see the funds being taken like a Ponzi scheme and used elsewhere.

February 15 2011 at 8:09 AM Report abuse +15 rate up rate down Reply
schehld

I paid a seperate tax into medicare as did all employed taxpayers. Why not start with the real entitlement programs, like farm subsidies, Federal Government pensions, and corporate welfare of the military industrial state. The only long term solution is to default. The current debt is not the fault of my 18 month old grandson or 10 year old grand daughter. Hopefully they will grow up and support the overthrow of the current debt obligations.

February 15 2011 at 3:11 PM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply

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