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Gadhafy Will Prevail Over Rebels, U.S. Intelligence Officials Say

2 years ago
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David Wood
Chief Military Correspondent
Libyan strongman Moammar Gadhafy is determined to crush the popular uprising against him and has the weapons to do it, top U.S. intelligence officials said Thursday.

While the fighting rages back and forth between rebels and Gadhafy's forces, the regime has a clear advantage in weapons and logistics.

"Over the long term he will prevail," said James R. Clapper, director of national intelligence, who represents the best collective assessments of all U.S. intelligence agencies.

The anti-Gadhafy rebels received a jolt of support Thursday, receiving formal diplomatic recognition from France. But the news was more dismal on the military front. Libyan tanks and artillery targeted rebels around the oil port of Ras Lanuf Thursday and Libyan jets struck other oil facilities in eastern Libya as Gadhafy's forces pushed deeper into territory formerly held by rebels. To the west of Tripoli, the capital and Gadhafy's stronghold, his forces laid siege to try to starve out rebels clinging to parts of the shattered city of Zawiyah, Reuters reported.

Describing "a very fluid situation" in the North African nation, Clapper told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the center of Gadhafy's power are his 32nd and 9th brigades, which are personally loyal and disciplined, and heavily armed with tanks and other mechanized weapons and air defense artillery.

Given the rebels' lack of steady resupply of weapons and ammunition, Clapper said that "from the standpoint of attrition over time, there's likely to be a kind of stalemate back and forth, but over time [Gadhafy] will prevail."

Army Lt. Gen. Ronald L. Burgess, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said that in the early days of the revolt against Gadhafy the rebels initially had the momentum. "That has started to shift," he said. "There is now a state of equilibrium where the initiative may be with the regime side -- we are watching that."

Clapper acknowledged that Gadhafy may not be able to hold the entire country, and that eastern Libya and especially the rebel-held city of Benghazi could become "a mini-state." Or, he said, Libya could shatter into a chaos of fighting among various groups. "We could see a Somalia-type situation here," he said.

Across the region, where popular uprisings have erupted against regimes from Tunisia to Yemen, "we're in for a bumpy time," said Clapper. "This is not going to be an equally smooth transition from country to country."

And while the United States faces increasing pressure to intervene, he said generally in the region "our image is not very good. . . . We're very unpopular there.''

Questioned about the possibility of imposing a no-fly zone across Libya, Clapper -- a former Air Force lieutenant general -- echoed the assessments of other officers that it would be more difficult than it appears. Strike aircraft would have to take out Libyan air defenses, including 31 antiaircraft missile sites and "a large number" of portable, shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles. "We would have to sort out which were in the hands of the opposition and which weren't," he said.

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12 Comments

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suzie

It is a given that Gadaffi is mentally unbalanced so it is discouraging to see other countries dealing with him in a rational way that he is completely incapable of comprehending. For headlines to declare that he has declared a cease-fire when it is not so, just delays intervention while the military continues as before; the hope obviously is that they can carry out the carnage as intended while the world holds it's breath, living in the delusional world where words are supposed to mean something. While thugs go house to house and rip the bodies of babies, and children, entire families apart and seize men so they can imprison and torture them in order to quell once and for all any idea or democracy, we sit on our thumbs waiting to see if Gadaffi "really means it". He plays the civilized world like a piano. I think we waited too long and those people are doomed. Gadaffi's son will carry on the crazed, hideous regime of his father, like in Haiti with Papa Doc and Baby Doc. The US never really helps save anyone; just gets up in front of the world and talks and talks and talks while the blood runs. I am of the WWII generation when my country was the hero; no more.

March 18 2011 at 12:12 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
BillyP

This "civil war" is over, and has been for several days. Anything Gadhafi has needed his air force to do has already been done, and a "no fly" zone over Libya now would do the rebels about as much good as a "no fly" zone over the Grand Canyon. The only thing left is for the secret police to come in the middle of the night, and the next day every wonders: "What happened to all the former rebels? Gadhafi promised if they laid down their weapons, everything would be forgotten..."
Say what you will about Gadhafi, but he has shown all the other dictators in the Middle East just EXACTLY how to deal with a political uprising: Be absolutely ruthless, and use your superior military organization and firepower as brutally as you have to. (And with the instability in the region, don't think they aren't paying attention.)
Europe gets just about every drop of oil that comes from Libya, and all they did was wring their hands and talk about how somebody should "do something". The Arab League called for a "no fly" zone, but didn't take a single step towards establishing and enforcing one. I was glad that President Obama kept us out of this mess, but it sure proves one thing: If the U.S. is not going to be the world's policeman, then NOBODY is.

March 15 2011 at 6:54 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
bansheemarc

Why do we need to strike anything in that country again? I forget.

March 10 2011 at 6:58 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
pugidmd

Just another failure of this administration, what else can he expect when he put in a political hack like Leon Panetta to run the CIA. These guys have been clueless way before the Middle East started going up in flames. BTW the Chaos Theory cartoon of President Obama turning into a republican I think it's just the realization of how absurd his policies have been in the past.

March 10 2011 at 4:47 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
firehorse1200

If a no fly zone over Libya is too problematical, how about a few well placed cruise missles to decapitate the regime. After what Kaddafi did to the Pan Am flight over Scotland, this would not be seen as colonialism, but simple justice.

March 10 2011 at 3:26 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
broadwaytool

I just worry that if we go in, we'll have another Afganistan on our hands. Will we be required to stay and build a new government? I think that the international community is obligated to help the rebels!!! Unless we just go in, bomb the crap out of them and leave, it would be a good military exercise.

March 10 2011 at 3:01 PM Report abuse +2 rate up rate down Reply
mwa6582751

In the American Revolutionary War as well as WWII against Japan, the US lost in the early days of the wars, but eventually, THE WON THE FIGHT BECAUSE THEY WANTED TO BE FREE.

March 10 2011 at 2:32 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply
1 reply to mwa6582751's comment
firehorse1200

Cornwallis, Howe, and Burgoyne had no tanks or Mirage fighters, only terrible logistic problems with their only supply coming by sea from England. Their king Geoge III was mad, but not as mad as Kaddafi.

March 10 2011 at 3:23 PM Report abuse +1 rate up rate down Reply
susienace

Imagine how discouraging this statement must be to the rebels. Of course the dictator will win if the U.S. continues to do nothing to help them. We would have lost our revolutionary war if the French hadn't helped.

March 10 2011 at 2:29 PM Report abuse +3 rate up rate down Reply
ayyiyicaramba

No need for U.S. aircraft to knock-out Libya's air defenses and anti-aircraft misslie sites. U.S. Navy ships operating in the Mediterranean Sea are very capable of knocking-out all of those sites with their arsenal of long-range, all-weather Tomahawks missiles. After that's done, our Navy and Air Force can go ahead and launch their F/A-18 Super Hornet, and F-15E Strike Eagle, respectively, multi-role fighter-jets.

Fact: Libya's Air Force is made up of 1 or 2 French made Mirage F-1, and a whole bunch of obsolete and mostly "out-of-service" Soviet/Russian MiG-21, 23, 25, and Sukhoi Su-22s. Trust me, No Libyan AF pilot in his right mind will dare engage our [US] jets in a aerial "dog-fight."

March 10 2011 at 2:22 PM Report abuse +4 rate up rate down Reply
att5338275

If U.S. intelligence officials say Gadhafy will prevail, the rebels will be in power within a week.

March 10 2011 at 1:16 PM Report abuse rate up rate down Reply

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