Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com has digested all the recent polls and run them through a statistical model he uses to predict Senate races. His verdict? Republican Scott Brown has a 74 percent chance to beat Democrat Martha Coakley in the race to fill the seat of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy.

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The polls so far seem to be leaving little doubt that Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who became the Democrats' candidate when Christopher Dodd decided not to seek re-election, has a commanding lead over the three Republicans who want to be their party's nominee for the seat.

Blumenthal holds leads ranging from 17 to 23 points over former Rep. Rob Simmons, former World Wrestling Entertainment executive Linda McMahon, and economist and commentator Peter Schiff, according to a Research 2000/Daily Kos poll conducted Jan. 11-13.

Blumenthal led by even bigger margins in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Jan. 8-12.

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Embattled Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet finds himself running even or marginally ahead of three Republican contenders for his seat, according to a Research 2000/Daily Kos poll conducted Jan. 11-13. That's not great news for an incumbent but it is a better showing than a Rasmussen Reports poll released earlier this week that showed him trailing all three.

Bennet was named to the seat last year when President Obama named Ken Salazar to be his Interior Secretary.

Bennet leads former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton 40 percent to 39 percent with 21 percent undecided; he leads Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck by 41 percent to 38 percent with 21 percent undecided; and, he leads former state Sen. Tom Wiens 42 percent to 38 percent with 20 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.

Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, who is making a longshot bid to wrest the Democratic nomination from Bennet, finds himself in even tighter match-ups with the Republicans than Bennet, trailing Norton by two points, leading Wiens by 2 points, and edging Buck by 1 point.

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On the eve of the Massachusetts special election for Senate, a new American Research Group poll, conducted Jan. 15-17, says Republican Scott Brown has increased his lead over Democrat Martha Coakley among likely voters to 52 percent to 42 percent, with 2 percent backing Liberty Party candidate Joseph Kennedy and 2, percent undecided. The margin of error is 4 points.

In its last poll, conducted Jan. 12-14, ARG had Brown leading Coakley 48 percent to 45 percent.

Brown generates more enthusiasm among Republicans than Coakley does among Democrats, although the Democratic sample is so much larger than that of the Republicans, a successful turnout effort trumps that. Ninety-seven percent of Republicans (15 percent of the sample) support Brown while 73 percent of Democrats (42 percent of the sample) back Coakley. Brown is drawing away 23 percent of Democrats.

Unaffiliated voters, who make up 43 percent of the sample, favor Brown by 2-to-1.

In another poll, conducted Jan. 15-17, Research 2000 has Brown and Coakley tied at 48 percent each. Daily Kos, which has a polling arrangement with Research 2000, asked the firm to update the race after a poll it did for the Blue Mass Group blog between Jan. 12-13 had shown Coakley up by 8 points.

The other polls:

Public Policy Polling: Brown 51 percent, Coakley 46 percent

Suffolk University/7 News: Brown 50 percent, Coakley 46 percent

Rasmussen Reports: Coakley 49 percent, Brown 47 percent

Boston Globe: Coakley 50 percent, Brown 35 percent

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Forty-five percent say they would prefer someone other than Gillibrand as senator, 29 percent would re-elect her and 26 percent are undecided. Thirty-two percent see her unfavorably compared to 30 percent who see her favorably, while 38 percent don't have an opinion. In December, 31 percent saw Gillibrand favorably and 22 percent unfavorably.

Matched in a primary race against Ford, Gillibrand leads him, 41 percent to 17 percent, with 37 percent undecided or not knowing enough about the candidates to have an opinion. Sixty-three percent are undecided about Ford or don't know enough about him to have an opinion.

Siena tested Gillibrand in a general election race against former Gov. George Pataki, and he led, 51 percent to 38 percent, with 11 percent undecided. In December, they were statistically tied, with Gillibrand leading him by 46 percent to 43 percent.

The polling on the governor's race is pretty much the same as it has been. The incumbent, David Paterson, runs about even with former Republican Rep. Rick Lazio. If Attorney General Andrew Cuomo gets in the race and beats Paterson for the nomination, he would lead Lazio, 66 percent to 24 percent.

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Former Lt. Gov Jane Norton bests him 49 percent to 37 percent with 5 percent preferring another candidate and 14 percent undecided.

Former state Sen. Tom Wiens leads Bennet 44 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent preferring another candidate and 14 percent undecided.

Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck leads Bennet 42 percent to 38 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 15 percent undecided.

The poll's margin of error is 4.5 points.

Former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff is challenging Bennet for the Democratic nomination, but he runs no better against the GOP trio.

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Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer has bare leads over three potential Republican opponents but despite her status as a three-term incumbent, the level of her support tops out at 46 percent, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Jan. 14.

Boxer leads former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina by a statistically insignificant 46 percent to 43 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 8 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 points.

She leads state assemblyman Chuck DeVore, a favorite of the conservative GOP movement, by 46 percent to 40 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 10 percent undecided.

She bests former Rep. Tom Campbell 46 percent to 42 percent with 3 percent preferring another candidate and 9 percent undecided.

Boxer is seen favorably by 51 percent of voters and unfavorably by 46 percent, but those who see her "very" unfavorably outnumber those who see are very favorably by 34 percent to 25 percent. When it comes to the three Republicans, 27 percent or more of voters don't know them well enough to have an opinion.

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A majority of Americans still have a favorable view of Obama, but that percentage has eroded over the past year. Fifty-eight percent see him favorably, compared to 72 percent in April and 79 percent in January. Sixty-three percent regard him as a strong leader, down from 77 percent in April; 57 percent say he understands their problems, down from 73 percent in April and 55 percent believe he shares their values, down from 60 percent, also April.

That said, Obama still outpaces congressional Democrats or Republicans when it comes to who Americans trust to make decisions for the future of the country. Forty-seven percent have a great deal or good amount of confidence in Obama, 32 percent in the Democrats and 24 percent in the Republicans. But overall, majorities express just some or no confidence in all three: 53 percent in Obama's case, 68 percent when it comes to the Democrats and 75 percent for the Republicans.

Two-thirds of those polled still assign a great deal or good amount of blames to the Bush administration for the country's economic problems. Thirty=six percent say it's the Obama administration's fault.

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While Brown has the support of 94 percent of his fellow Republicans (20 percent of the sample), Coakley gets a lesser 71 percent of Democrats (44 percent of the sample), which underlines the importance of turnout and voter enthusiasm. Voters not affiliated with either party (36 percent of the sample) favor Brown by 58 percent to 37 percent.

Likely voters who say they have cast absentee ballots favor Brown by 58 percent to 42 percent.

For more on the race and to see other polls:

Suffolk University/7 News: Brown 50 percent, Coakley 46 percent

Rasmussen Reports: Coakley 49 percent, Brown 47 percent

Boston Globe: Coakley 50 percent, Brown 35 percent

Public Policy Polling: Brown 48 percent, Coakley 47 percent

Research 2000: Coakley 49 percent, Brown 41 percent

Politico: Enthusiasm Gap in Massachusetts Senate Race

FiveThirtyEight.com: Scott Brown is a Liberal Republican

New York Times: Narrow Senate Race Unnerves Democrats on Health Care

New York Times: Democrats Fight to Hold Crucial Seat - Kennedy's

Boston Globe: Brown pushes far beyond his GOP base

Washington Post: In Massachusetts, Republican Brown steps up campaign for Kennedy's Senate seat

FiveThirtyEight.com: Massachusetts - It's Not Just About Turnout

Politics Daily: The Winner Will Be No Adams, Webster, or Kennedy

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However, that big undecided number needs to be taken into account. "Gillibrand has an early lead, but she still has a lot of ground to cover," says Marist's Lee M. Miringoff. "She's below 50% against Ford, and a third of Democrats is undecided. Her approval rating among Democrats statewide is only 31%."

Gillibrand leads Ford by double-digits in New York City and the state's suburbs, but her biggest margin is predictably upstate where she represented a district as a congresswoman before being tapped to fill the seat vacated by Hillary Clinton.

While 45 percent of Democratic voters say it makes no difference to them who President Obama supports, another 45 percent say Obama's backing would make it more likely that they'd stick with Gillibrand. The White House had been a player along with national Democrats in keeping the field clear for Gillibrand, and spokesman Robert Gibbs indicated that Obama still wants Gillibrand to be the party's nominee.

Ford has lived in New York a relatively short time. Forty-eight percent of those polled said it didn't make a difference to them whether their Senate candidate came from New York, while 43 percent said it would make them less likely to vote for that candidate.

Gillibrand is seen favorably by 48 percent of Democrats while 20 percent regard her unfavorably, and a still-large 32 percent don't know enough about her to express an opinion. About 52 percent don't know enough about Ford to have an opinion of him.

Now that former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani has decided not to seek the seat, Marist matched up Gillibrand in a general election against former Gov. George Pataki and found Gillibrand leading by a statistically insignificant 45 percent to 42 percent, with 13 percent undecided. The margin of error is 3.5 points.

Here are excerpts of an interview that Ford gave to the New York Times on Monday,

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John Hoeven, North Dakota's popular three-term Republican governor who is running to fill the Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Byron Dorgan, holds leads of 21 points or more against three Democrats tested against him in hypothetical match-ups, according to a Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll conducted Jan. 11-13.

Hoeven leads former Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp 55 percent to 34 percent, with 11 percent undecided. Heitkampt has not said that she would run but is one of the few Democrats to have held statewide office.

He leads MSNBC's liberal talk show host Ed Schultz by 56 percent to 32 percent with 12 percent undecided. There had been a flurry of speculation that he would seek the seat, but he said this week he was not running.

Hoeven bests state Rep. Jaspar Schneider by 56 percent to 32 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

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Now that the country is in its midterm election year, Americans find themselves split about which party they would support on a generic ballot for the congressional elections, with some modest movement of independents towards the GOP, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted Jan. 6-10. The margin of error is 3 points.

Forty-six percent back the Democrats and 44 percent favor the Republicans, down from the 47 percent to 42 percent Democratic advantage in November. Independents support the Republicans by a 45 percent to 35 margin, up from 41 percent to 38 percent in November.

Two-thirds of Americans decry the lack of bipartisanship between President Obama and GOP leaders, but most (32 percent) blame the GOP rather than Obama (19 percent).

Separately, an Allstate/National Journal poll, conducted Jan. 3-7, said that 32 percent said Obama and Democrats had made reasonable attempts to compromise but that Republicans tried to obstruct their agenda for political gain; 21 percent said Obama and congressional Republicans had made reasonable efforts to compromise but their differences were too great; 19 percent thought the Republicans showed good will but Obama and Democrats had not compromised enough; and, 19 percent believed that neither Obama or the Republicans had tried very hard.

The National Journal survey found that 41 percent trust Obama more than congressional Republicans to address the nations economic problems while 33 percent believe in the Republicans, and 16 percent trust neither.

One bread-and-butter statistic from this poll: asked who had benefited the most from the federal government response to the financial crisis in the last 12 months, 40 percent said banks and investment companies, 20 percent said major corporations, 16 percent named wealthy individuals, 9 percent said middle class individuals and 8 percent said low-income individuals.

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In the wake of the attempted bombing of a U.S. airliner on Christmas Day, Americans believe that the government is leaning too much in the direction of protecting civil liberties rather than guarding the public's security, according to two polls released today.

That was a view seemingly at odds with a point President Obama stressed when he acknowledged lapses in intelligence and security systems and vowed to fix them, but added, "We will strengthen our defenses, but we will not succumb to a siege mentality that sacrifices the open society and liberties and values that we cherish as Americans, because great and proud nations don't hunker down and hide behind walls of suspicion and mistrust. That is exactly what our adversaries want. And so long as I am president, we will never hand them that victory."

A Pew Research poll, conducted Jan. 6-10, found that 58 percent believe the government has not gone far enough to protect against terrorist attacks compared to 27 percent who believe it has gone too far in restricting civil liberties. That's a big change since November when 40 percent said the government was not concentrating enough on protecting against terrorists and 36 percent were more concerned about civil liberties.

Republicans hold that view more than Democrats or independents, but the percentage of Democrats and independents who now are more concerned about security efforts has risen dramatically. Sixty-eight percent of Republicans believes the government needs to concentrate more on anti-terrorism measures, up 11 points since November, and 55 percent of both Democrats and independents now hold that view,each up 20 points since November.

A Quinnipiac University poll, conducted Jan. 5-11, produced a similar result: Sixty-three percent said they were more concerned that the government had not gone far enough in taking steps to protect the country while 25 percent said it had gone too far in restricting civil liberties. That view was held by majorities across partisan lines.

Fifty-two percent said authorities should be allowed to single out people for search who look like they might be of Middle Eastern origin at airports and on subways, while 44 percent disagreed, with 4 percent undecided. A majority of Republicans and independents held that view, while a majority of Democrats opposed it. But that represents a fall-off in support for profiling. In August, 60 percent said such people should or could be singled out while 37 percent disagreed.

Those surveyed in Quinnipiac opposed Obama administration decisions in two other related areas. Fifty-eight percent disapproved of the decision to try the would-be Christmas Day bomber in a criminal court rather than before a military tribunal, and 60 percent oppose closing the detainee facility at Guantanamo.

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Democratic Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley holds a 49 percent to 41 percent lead over Republican state Sen. Scott Brown in the race to fill the seat of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy, according to a Research 2000 poll conducted Jan. 12-13 for the Blue Mass Group blog. The margin of error is 4 points.

Libertarian Joseph Lewis Kennedy, an information technology specialist who is no relation to the Kennedy clan, gets 5 points, and 5 percent are undecided.

Independents favor Brown over Coakley by 49 percent to 36 percent with 11 percent backing Kennedy. Both Coakley and Brown get about the same level of support from each of their own parties.

For more on the race and to see other polls:

New York Times: Democrats Fight to Hold Crucial Seat - Kennedy's

Boston Globe: In short race, Coakley picks targets carefully

Boston Globe: Brown pushes far beyond his GOP base

Washington Post: In Massachusetts, Republican Brown steps up campaign for Kennedy's Senate seat

FiveThirtyEight.com: Massachusetts - It's Not Just About Turnout

Politics Daily: The Winner Will Be No Adams, Webster, or Kennedy

Rasmussen Reports: Coakley 49 percent, Brown 47 percent

Boston Globe: Coakley 50 percent, Brown 35 percent

Public Policy Polling: Brown 48 percent, Coakley 47 percent

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Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, who stepped into the state's U.S. Senate race after Christopher Dodd stepped out, has huge leads over all three of the Republicans contending for their party's nomination, according to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted Jan. 8-12.

Blumenthal, a Democrat, leads former Rep. Rob Simmons 62 percent to 27 percent with 10 percent undecided. He leads Linda McMahon, the former World Wrestling Entertainment chief, by 64 percent to 23 percent with 11 percent undecided. He bests economist and commentator Peter Schiff by 66 percent to 19 percent with 14 percent undecided.

While Blumenthal enjoys support among fellow Democrats in the area of 90 percent in each match-up, none of the Republicans command more than 63 percent support from their own party. Independents favor Blumenthal by margins of 2-to-1 or more.

As far as the GOP primary contest, Simmons is on top with 37 percent to McMahon's 27 percent, with Schiff at 4 percent. But 28 percent of Republicans are still undecided, and McMahon has vowed to dip into her own pocket to pour millions into the race.

"Rob Simmons must be wondering what happened. In September, prior to McMahon's entry, he was the clear frontrunner for the nomination. He was at 43 percent and no other Republican was in double digits," said Quinnipiac's Douglas Schwartz. "He also was ahead of Dodd. Now, Simmons is in a real Republican primary race with Linda McMahon and gets destroyed by Blumenthal."

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Portman leads Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner 43 percent to 40 percent with 5 percent preferring someone else and 14 percent undecided. He runs ahead of Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher by 44 percent to 37 percent with 4 percent preferring someone else and 14 percent undecided. The margin of error is 4.5 points.

Rasmussen says that, in December, Portman was in a virtual tie with Fisher 38% to 36% and was ahead of Brunner 40% to 33%. In September, the candidates were neck-and-neck.

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Former state GOP chairman Sue Lowden leads Reid 51 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided and businessman and former college basketball star Danny Tarkanian leads Reid 50 percent to 42 percent with 8 percent undecided, according to a Public Policy Polling survey conducted Jan. 11-12. The margin of error is 3.6 points. PPP did not test Sharron Angle, a former Republican state legislator, who is considered not likely to get the party's nomination.

However, Lowden and Tarkanian also beat two other Democrats that PPP sampled to see if someone else would do better than Reid.

Lowden leads six-term Rep. Shelley Berkley 46 percent to 38 percent with 17 percent undecided, and she also runs ahead of Secretary of State Ross Miller by 44 percent to 34 percent with 23 percent undecided.

Tarkanian leads Berkley 49 percent to 37 percent with 14 percent undecided, and bests Miller 45 percent to 34 percent with 22 percent undecided.

PPP also threw in Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, although he's a Democrat who says he's planning to become an independent. There has also been speculation he will run for governor.

Goodman does better than the others, leading Lowden by a statistically insignificant 42 percent to 40 percent with 18 percent undecided, and tying Tarkanian at 41 percent each with 18 percent undecided.

Voters disapprove of the job Reid is doing by a 58 percent to 36 percent margin. The one positive result in the poll for Reid is that 49 percent don't think he should step down as majority leader following the racial remarks he made about Obama in a private conversation last year, while 42 percent do.

See also:

Reid Falls Further Behind in Race for Re-Election

Mixed Reviews for Reid from His State's Black Voters

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New Hampshire's Republican Attorney General Kelly Ayotte right now is the strongest candidate in the party's field to fill the seat of retiring GOP Sen. Judd Gregg. Ayotte is running ahead of Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes by 49 percent to 40 percent with 3 percent preferring someone else and 8 percent undecided, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Jan. 12. The margin of error is 4.5 points.

Hodes leads the other two Republicans, lawyer Ovide Lamontagne and businessman Bill Binnie. Hodes leads Lamontagne 45 percent to 38 percent with 6 percent preferring another candidate and 11 percent undecided, and Binnie by 43 percent to 37 percent with 5 percent preferring someone else and 15 percent undecided.

The health care reform legislation working its way through Congress may be a liability for Hodes. He has been vocal in his support for it even though it is opposed by a 52 percent to 46 percent margin in the state, and those who say they "strongly" oppose it outnumber those who strongly favor it by 44 percent to 22 percent.

Rasmussen says that "Ayotte captures 89% of those who strongly oppose the health care plan, while Hodes has 86% of the votes of the smaller group that strongly favors it."

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The match-ups were against former state GOP chairman Sue Lowden and businessman and former UNLV basketball star Danny Tarkanian. A Rasmussen Reports poll earlier today had Reid falling behind both of them.

In comparison to Reid, Las Vegas' Oscar Goodman, a former Democrat turned independent, has 61 percent support among black voters.

"With Republicans and independents in the state pretty universally lined up against him, Reid's margin for error with his base voters is very low and that 52% figure is not going to get the job done," PPP said. "Whether that standing is a short term reaction to the 'negro' revelation that will subside or a long term problem that will plague Reid remains to be seen."

This upcoming weekend's New York Times magazine has a long piece on the challenges facing Reid in Washington and at home.

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Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has fallen further behind his two top Republican challengers, more because of a decline in support for his re-election than the strength of the GOP candidates, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Jan. 11. This is the first poll in Nevada since last weekend's story broke about racial remarks Reid had made in private about Barack Obama during the 2008 presidential campaign.

Reid musters only 36 percent of voters against former state GOP chairman Sue Lowden or businessman and onetime UNLV basketball star Danny Tarkanian, significantly lower than shown in Rasmussen's poll last month. Support for Lowden and Tarkanian remains generally about the same as it was in the previous survey.

Lowden leads Reid, 48 percent to 36 percent with 8 percent preferring another candidate and 7 percent undecided. Last month, that margin was 49 percent to 43 percent.

Tarkanian bests Reid, 50 percent to 36 percent with 5 percent preferring someone else and 9 percent undecided. Last month, Tarkanian led by 49 percent to 43 percent.

A third Republican hopeful, former state legislator Sharron Angle, leads Reid 44 percent to 40 percent with 10 percent preferring someone else and 7 percent undecided. Last month, she led 47 percent to 43 percent. The poll shows 55 percent of voters said they had very closely followed last weekend's stories about the Reid remarks on Obama and another 24 percent followed the story "somewhat" closely. But Rasmussen did not ask what their reaction was.

"Reid's difficulties stem directly from the fact that he is the majority leader of the United States Senate," said Scott Rasmussen. "His responsibilities as leader of the Senate Democrats have placed him in a very visible position promoting an agenda that is viewed with some skepticism by Nevada voters."

Part of that agenda is the health care reform Reid has pushed, which the poll showed is opposed by 54 percent in the state and supported by 39 percent. Forty-five percent put themselves in the "strongly" opposed camp.

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