Politics Daily

Half of Americans Approve of Obama's Handling of Libya

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-22T12:46:00+00:00

Filed under: Polls, Foreign Policy, Obama Administration, Poll Watch, Independents

President Obama's handling of Libya gets the approval of half of Americans who have an opinion on it (and about one-fifth do not), despite criticism from right, left and abroad, according to a CBS News poll conducted March 18-21. (Poll data here.) Critics say the administration waited too long to act or, once it did, took military action whose goals were not as defined as Obama had said they would be.

Fifty percent said they approved of Obama's handling of the situation, 29 percent disapproved, while 21 percent expressed no opinion.

Obama does better when it comes to ratings on his performance on Libya and other foreign policy matters than on some major domestic issues. The CBS poll found that Republicans, who uniformly give Obama low marks on domestic issues, particularly health care, the economy and the deficit, approve of his handling of the Libya situation by a 43 percent to 41 percent margin.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll, conducted March 18-20, found that 54 percent of those surveyed approved of Obama's handling of foreign affairs, and 50 percent agree with the way he's dealt with the Libyan crisis. By contrast, CNN's polling found that only 36 percent approved of Obama's handling of the deficit, 39 percent approved of his economic policy and 41 percent liked the way he was handling health care.

While the CBS poll found little change in Obama's overall job approval rating -- 49 percent approve and 41 percent disapprove -- there was a good sign for him in the fact that independents, who soured on him last year, approved of his performance by 46 percent to 39 percent, with the remainder undecided.

Follow Poll Watch on Twitter

Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Opposition Rises to Increased Nuclear Power Use; Offshore Drilling Support Rebounds

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-21T17:08:00+00:00

Filed under: Polls, Energy, Poll Watch

How long lasting are the effects of disasters on public opinion?

The nuclear plant crisis that resulted from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan has prompted a spike in opposition in the U.S. to increased use of nuclear power, much like the rise in opposition to increased offshore oil drilling following the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico that was set off last April by the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform.

But almost a year later, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted March 17-20, support for more offshore oil drilling has rebounded.

Fifty-two percent of those surveyed by Pew following the drama at Japan's nuclear plants said they opposed increased use of nuclear power compared to 39 percent who supported it. That's a turnaround from February 2010, when 52 percent favored increased use of nuclear power and 41 percent were opposed.

Pew's measures of public opinion on nuclear plants has fluctuated over recent years between support and opposition for more use of nuclear power plants.

A Gallup poll conducted March 15 found that 47 percent opposed building more nuclear plants compared to 44 percent in favor, a turnaround from the 57 percent to 38 percent margin of support for more plants in a previous poll. But Gallup's polling figures shows more consistent support over the years for more plants. (Pew asked respondents if they favored or opposed "promoting the increased use of nuclear power" while Gallup asked if those surveyed favored or opposed "construction of nuclear power plants in the U.S."

After last year's Deepwater Horizon spill occurred, support for more offshore oil drilling fell from 63 percent in in February 2010, just prior to the spill, to 44 percent, with 52 percent opposing increased drilling. But Pew's latest poll finds support for increased drilling has rebounded to 57 percent who are in favor of it, compared to 37 percent who are opposed.

Follow Poll Watch on Twitter

Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Democrats, Republicans, Independents Differ on Issues That Worry Them Most

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-21T11:51:00+00:00

Filed under: Democrats, Republicans, Environment, Crime, Health Care, Race Issues, Immigration, Polls, Poll Watch, Independents, Deficit, Jobs, Economy

The top five issues that Americans worry about the most would not surprise anyone -- the economy, federal spending and the deficit, availability and affordability of health care, unemployment and the Social Security system. But one polling snapshot zeroes in on the difference in emphasis that Republicans, Democrats and independents regard as the top issues.

For the overall population, 71 percent say they worry a great deal about the economy, 64 percent name federal spending and the deficit, 58 percent are concerned about health care, 57 percent fret about unemployment and 51 percent mention Social Security, according to a Gallup poll conducted March 3-6.

But looked at along party lines, federal spending tops the list for Republicans at 79 percent, with the economy a close second at 76 percent. The size and power of government is a major worry for 62 percent of Republicans, compared to 48 percent for the overall public. Illegal immigration is another issue higher on the list for Republicans (at 55 percent) than it is for the general public (42 percent).

Democrats put health care at the top of their list with 69 percent saying that's their top worry, followed by the economy at 64 percent, unemployment at 60 percent and Social Security at 53 percent.

Among independents, the order of concerns is: the economy (72 percent), federal spending (65 percent), health care (58 percent) and unemployment (55 percent).

The issue Americans worry about least is race relations, which only 16 percent call a top worry, with the environment second to last at 34 percent. In between, for the public at large, is availability and affordability of energy (46 percent), crime and violence (44 percent), illegal immigration (42 percent), hunger and homelessness (41 percent), possibility of a terrorist attack in the U.S. (40 percent) and drug use (40 percent).

Health care did not break into the ranks of top concerns for Republicans, and a Kaiser Family Foundation poll, conducted March 8-13, shows that it continues to be a polarizing issues, with Republicans strongly opposed to the year-old reform measure and Democrats strongly in support.

Follow Poll Watch on Twitter

Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

As States Struggle With Deficits, Few Proposals for Cutting Red Ink Get Majority Support

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-17T13:10:00+00:00

Filed under: Budget, Polls, Poll Watch, Deficit

When it comes to dealing with the gaping budget deficits plaguing many states, public opinion presents the same dilemma for governors and lawmakers as it does for policymakers in Washington: while everyone wants to see deficits cut, few of the specific ways to achieve that result command majority support.

In a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted March 10-13, only two of 12 ways of dealing with deficits were supported by a majority of those surveyed -- freezing wages for state employees (55 percent) and reducing their pension benefits (51 percent).

But between 61 percent and 89 percent opposed measures that included reducing spending on roads, increasing state income taxes, cutting Medicaid funding, closing state parks, reducing public school aid, laying off public school teachers, or laying off police and firemen.

Support for Construction of Nuclear Plants in the U.S. Drops Following Japan Crisis

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-17T12:25:00+00:00

Filed under: Polls, Energy, Poll Watch

The nuclear crisis in Japan has had its impact on U.S. public opinion about construction of nuclear power plants here, with 47 percent now in opposition to building more plants compared to 44 percent who favor doing so, according to a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted March 15. Nine percent were undecided.

Prior to the Japan disaster, a large majority of Americans supported the construction of nuclear power plants, peaking at 62 percent last year, and slipping only slightly to 57 percent in Gallup's last pre-crisis survey in early March.

Seventy percent of those surveyed said they now were a lot or a little more concerned about the prospects of a nuclear disaster in the U.S., with 39 percent saying they were "a lot more concerned." Twenty-seven percent said they were not more concerned.

Despite the noticeable drop in support for construction of nuclear plants in the latest poll, Gallup said, "It is not clear, however, what long-term impact the Japanese incident will have on Americans' support for nuclear power, which has been consistently above a majority and higher than it was a decade ago."

Follow Poll Watch on Twitter

Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Palin Seen More Negatively by Republicans Than Other Possible 2012 Candidates, Poll Finds

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-16T14:34:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Polls, Sarah Palin, 2012 President, Poll Watch, Newt Gingrich

If Sarah Palin is seriously considering a run for president in 2012, the latest poll on her standing among Republican candidates contains the same kind of bad news found in earlier surveys.

A Washington Post/ABC News poll, conducted March 10-13, found that among eight frequently mentioned candidates, Palin was viewed negatively by a significantly higher percentage of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents than the others. (Story; Poll data).

While 58 percent expressed a favorable view of her, those seeing her unfavorably added up to 37 percent. That's a jump from a year ago when the number of those seeing her unfavorably was 30 percent.

The only other potential candidate who came close was Newt Gingrich, who was see unfavorably by 26 percent.

Palin's 37 percent unfavorable number included those who had "somewhat" or "strongly" unfavorable opinions. Seventeen percent had a strongly unfavorable view of Palin, while all the other Republicans were in single digits in that column.

Mike Huckabee was the most popular in the poll, with 61 percent seeing him favorably and 18 percent unfavorably. Mitt Romney was next, with 60 percent seeing him favorably and 21 percent unfavorably.

The numbers for Haley Barbour, Tim Pawlenty, Jon Huntsman and Mitch Daniels don't mean much because 57 percent or more of those surveyed in each case didn't know enough to have an opinion.

A Bloomberg poll, conducted March 4-7 among all adults and not just Republicans, found 60 percent with a negative opinion of Palin.

When the Washington Post/ABC News poll of all adults conducted last December asked respondents whether they would support Palin for president or even consider it, 59 percent said they would not.

Follow Poll Watch on Twitter

Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Republicans Losing Their Advantage on How to Handle the Deficit, Poll Finds

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-16T14:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Polls, Obama Administration, Poll Watch, Deficit, Economy

A new poll released Wednesday echoes what a Washington Post/ABC News poll reported a day earlier: President Obama doesn't get good marks for his handling of issues involving the economy, but faith in Republicans doing a better job has slipped.

While the way the questions were framed in the Post/ABC News poll was different from the one by the Pew Research Center -- the Post/ABC survey focused on the economy in general and the Pew poll focused on dealing with the deficit -- the results point to a similar trend suggesting a drop in enthusiasm for Republican policies since the party won big in last year's midterm elections.

The Post/ABC News poll found a majority disapproving of Obama's handling of the economy, but those surveyed still said they trusted him more to do a better job in dealing with the issue than the Republicans.

When it comes to the deficit issue, Pew had found last November that 35 percent thought the Republicans had a better approach than Obama compared to 24 percent who preferred Obama's approach. Thirty-three percent said there was not much difference between the two and 8 percent were undecided.

But in its latest poll, conducted March 8-14, the percentage of those who believed Republicans had a better approach dropped to 21 percent, almost the same as the 20 percent who favored Obama. The percentage of those who said there was not much difference between the two jumped to 52 percent, with 7 percent undecided.

The poll found that the deficit issue now ranks third when it comes to the public's top economic concerns, although the percentage of those who express concern about the deficit is rising. Gallup noted a similar trend in a January poll.

Thirty-four percent cite jobs as the top economic concern, followed by 28 percent who worry most about rising prices. Twenty-four percent named the deficit as the top problem, up from about 15 percent in Pew's last two surveys. Ten percent name problems in the financial and housing markets as the top concern.

When it comes to ways to reduce the deficit, those surveyed were in favor of lowering domestic spending by a 61 percent to 30 percent margin. Americans were roughly split on whether defense spending should be reduced, with 49 percent saying it should and 47 percent disagreeing, which was within the poll's 3-point margin of error. Nearly two-thirds opposed making changes to Social Security or raising taxes.

Follow Poll Watch on Twitter

Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Huckabee, Bachmann Score Highest in GOP 2012 Field on 'Positive Intensity' of Support

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-15T16:09:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Polls, Sarah Palin, 2012 President, Poll Watch, Newt Gingrich

Mike Huckabee and Michele Bachmann score the best among the field of potential GOP presidential candidates when it comes to a "positive intensity score" calculated by Gallup, but neither they or anyone else in the Republican field generates a high level of intensely positive opinions.

Gallup arrived at this measure by asking Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, in a poll conducted Feb. 28-March 13, whether they had a strongly favorable, favorable, unfavorable or strongly unfavorable opinion of each potential candidate that they recognized. The intensity score is arrived at by subtracting the "strongly unfavorable" number for those names that they recognized.

One problem with this measure is the significant differences among the GOP field when it comes to name recognition. Huckabee, Newt Gingrich (in third place as far as positive intensity), Sarah Palin (fourth place) and Mitt Romney (sixth place) are recognized by 81 percent or more of those surveyed, with Palin having the highest recognition at 96 percent.

Bachmann may hold second place when it comes to positive intensity, but that's based on responses from the 52 percent who recognize her name. Rick Santorum beats out Romney when it comes to positive intensity, but that's based on the much smaller pool of 42 percent who know his name.

The showings by Bachmann and Santorum could be explained by the fact that, although they are known by a far smaller group of Republicans, their conservative credentials make them a hit among those who know them because they are their target audiences.

Gallup didn't consider any of the scores, including Huckabee's, to demonstrate a high level of intensely positive opinions.

For the Republicans who do have high name recognition, Gallup says the challenge is to "translate that name identification into strongly positive reactions from Republican voters."

Follow Poll Watch on Twitter

Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Poll Shows Faith in Government Plummets; Warning Signs for Republicans Emerge

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-15T11:11:00+00:00

Filed under: Democrats, Republicans, Polls, Obama Administration, Afghanistan, Poll Watch, Independents, Congress, Economy

While voters may have vented their anger at Washington in last year's elections and altered the balance of power, the public at large is no happier now with the way government is working, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted March 10-13.

Almost half of those surveyed -- 49 percent -- express uncertainty about "our system of government and how well it works" and what it portends for the future. Twenty-six percent said they were optimistic about how well the system of government would serve the nation and 23 percent were pessimistic, with 7 percent undecided.

The 26 percent who expressed optimism represented the lowest number in 35 years.

That compares to February 1999 when 54 percent described themselves as optimistic and 19 percent as pessimistic, with 27 percent uncertain and 1 percent undecided.

The Post/ABC finding comes on the heels of a Gallup poll conducted March 3-6 that showed the percentage of Americans who approved of the way Congress is doing its job dropping to 18 percent, after being in the low 20s in January and February.

Much of the sour outlook appears to stem from public perceptions of the economy, but there are also strong signs of disgruntlement with Republicans, who captured the House last November and strengthened their position in the Senate.

Fifty-three percent do not believe that the economy has begun to recover compared to 46 percent who think it has, with 1 percent undecided. While a majority still holds that view, it is an improvement over December when 57 percent said they saw no improvement.

Forty-nine percent said the economic stimulus program pushed through the last Congress by President Obama and the Democrats had no effect on the economy. Twenty-eight percent said it helped and 21 percent said it had hurt.

Fifty-five percent disapproved of Obama's handling of the economy compared to 43 percent who approved, with 2 percent undecided. That represented an uptick in the percentage of those who disapproved of the job Obama was doing on the economy, and his worst showing since last September.

But that was not necessarily good news for Republicans. Forty-six percent trusted Obama more than the Republicans to do a better job handling the economy compared to 34 percent who believed the Republicans would do a better job, with the remainder answering "both" or "neither."

Those surveyed said Obama represented their values more than the Republicans by a 46 percent to 41 percent margin, with 1 percent undecided. Forty-seven percent said Obama better understood the economic problems people were having than the Republicans, compared to 35 percent who said the Republicans understood better, with the remainder answering both or neither.

ABC polling analyst Gary Langer said, "The drop in trust to handle the economy has occurred chiefly among independents, now drawing away from the GOP after rallying to its side. As recently as January, 42 percent of independents preferred the Republicans in Congress over Obama to handle the economy. Today just 29 percent say the same, and there's been a rise in the number who volunteer that they don't trust either side."

Another possible factor in the overall gloom about government is the continuing war in Afghanistan. Sixty-four percent of Americans do not believe the war is worth fighting, a number that has been rising steadily since last April, when it stood at 52 percent.

Seventy-three percent said the U.S. should withdraw a substantial number of combat troops by this summer. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats held that view, as did 78 percent of independents. Fifty-six percent of Republicans, who have been more supportive than Democrats of the war effort, said the U.S. should withdraw troops.

Follow Poll Watch on Twitter

Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

New Poll Shows Public Split Over U.S. Enforcing a Libya 'No-Fly' Zone

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-14T17:21:00+00:00

Filed under: Polls, Foreign Policy, Poll Watch

In contrast to an earlier CNN poll showing a majority of Americans supporting establishment of a no-fly zone over Libya, another survey released Tuesday finds the public almost evenly split on whether the U.S. should taker such action.

A Pew Research Center poll, conducted March 10-13, shows that a slim majority (51 percent) favor increasing sanctions on Libya, but when it comes to enforcing a no-fly zone, 45 percent are opposed while 44 percent favor doing so, with 11 percent undecided.

The CNN poll said Americans favored a no-fly zone by a 56 percent to 40 percent margin, with 4 percent undecided.

Most Americans Back a 'No-Fly Zone' Over Libya, But Oppose Stronger Moves

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-14T14:05:00+00:00

Filed under: Polls, Foreign Policy, Obama Administration, Poll Watch

A majority of Americans support establishing a "no-fly zone" over Libya as a way of supporting rebels there who appear to be losing ground to the forces of Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted March 11-13. But, at the same time, most oppose more aggressive military action.

The idea of enforcing a no-fly zone to take away the Gadhafi's ability to use warplanes in the fight against his opposition has drawn support from some leading senators like Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry and John McCain, the ranking Republican on the Armed Services Committee.

But although President Obama said he was keeping all options on the table in regard to Libya, other administration officials like Defense Secretary Robert Gates and White House Chief of Staff have expressed caution about moving down that path.

In the CNN poll, 56 percent of those surveyed said they supported the idea of the U.S. and other countries establishing a no-fly zone, while 40 percent were opposed, with 4 percent undecided. Fifty-three percent back sending arms and supplies to the rebels while 43 percent are opposed, with 4 percent undecided.

CNN polling director Keating Holland said, "The no-fly zone wins support from Democrats and Republicans alike, with virtually no partisan differences. That's rare in politics these days. A gender gap does exist though, which is typical for questions on military action. More than sixty percent of men favor a no-fly zone, compared to 50 percent of women."

However, the public opposes using planes and missiles to strike at Gadhafi's forces by a 62 percent to 32 percent margin, with 6 percent undecided. And, it opposes using ground troops by 76 percent to 22 percent, with 2 percent undecided.

About 7 of 10 Americans say the removal of Gadhafi is a very or somewhat important foreign policy goal for the U.S., but most of those (47 percent) are in the "somewhat important" category.

When it comes to Obama's handling of the situation, 45 percent approve and 40 percent disapprove, with 15 percent undecided. Obama gets a slightly higher mark for his handling of the unrest sweeping across many Arab nations in the Mideast, with 49 percent approving of his performance while 43 percent do not, with 8 percent undecided.

Follow Poll Watch on Twitter

Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Americans Turning More to Mobile Devices for News

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-14T00:01:00+00:00

Filed under: Media, Polls, Poll Watch

The struggling newspaper industry has been frantically trying to reinvent itself to stay alive in the digital age by beefing up Web operations and packaging its contents for mobile devices. But while there has been rapid growth in the use of smartphones and tablets, like the iPad, to get news and information, a new study did not find a lot of bright spots for local papers.

A survey conducted Jan. 12-25 by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism, the Pew Internet and American Life Project and the Knight Foundation found that nearly half of all Americans - 47 percent -- get at least some local news and information on their cellphone or tablet computer.

Forty-two percent use their devices to check up on the weather, 37 percent use them to get information on local restaurants and businesses, 30 percent search out local news, 24 percent follow local sports scores and updates, 19 percent want to find local coupons and discounts, and 15 percent get news alerts.

But while more and more newspapers have developed "apps" for this mobile audience, only 13 percent say they have used them. And that number includes not only apps from news organizations but specialized apps that provide online classified advertising, like Craigslist, and such programs as the Girl Scouts' Cookie Locator app, which helps users find the nearest location to buy Girl Scout cookies.

Only 10 percent of adults who use mobile apps to connect to news and information pay for them, which works out to just 1 percent of the overall adult population.

About three-quarters of those surveyed said they would not be willing to pay to get full access to the content of their local paper online.

Worse yet for newspapers is that a plurality of those surveyed - 39 percent - say the loss of their local newspaper would have no impact on their ability to keep up with news and information in their area. (Forty-two percent of those who are mobile news consumers say the loss of the paper would have no impact). Thirty-nine percent said it would have a minor impact.

Only 28 percent said the loss of the local paper would have a major impact and those tend to be adults over 50, non-Internet users and people who have lived in their community for more than 20 years.

The study said that tablets, like the iPad, "have become one of the most quickly adopted consumer goods of the recent era," with their use almost doubling in four months time, from 4 percent to 7 percent.

Follow Poll Watch on Twitter

Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Poll Finds Sharp Partisan Divide on Islam-Violence Connection

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-09T11:25:00+00:00

Filed under: Democrats, Polls, Poll Watch, Mayors, Tea Party, Islam

While Americans overall are almost evenly divided on the question of whether Islam is more likely to encourage violence, there is a sharp partisan divide on the subject, with Republicans and tea party movement supporters believing strongly that it does, while Democrats disagree, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted Feb. 22-March 1.

The subject has been brought into sharp focus with a hearing scheduled for Thursday by Rep. Peter King, chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, on "Radicalization in the American Muslim community."

Forty-two percent of those surveyed said Islam doesn't encourage violence more than other religions while 40 percent said it does, with 18 percent undecided. That result is more closely divided than in the last two years Pew asked the question. In August 2010, the public said Islam did not encourage violence more than others by a 42 percent to 35 percent, and in 2009 they held that view by a 45 percent to 38 percent margin, with the remainder in both years undecided.

In March 2002, 51 percent had said Islam does not encourage violence more than others, compared to 25 percent who said it did.

Republicans who identify themselves as conservatives believe Islam encourages violence more than other religions by 66 percent to 21 percent, with the rest undecided. Those who align with the tea party movement share that view by a margin of 67 percent to 24 percent.

Democrats who consider themselves to be liberals reject that view of Islam as encouraging violence more than others by 61 percent to 29 percent, and moderate-to-conservative Democrats reject it by 48 percent to 31 percent.

Among other religious groups, Protestants overall believe by 46 percent to 37 percent that Islam encourages violence more than others, with white evangelicals holding that opinion by 60 percent to 24 percent. White mainline Protestants are evenly divided at 42 percent each.

Catholics reject the idea that Islam encourages more violence by 45 percent to 35 percent.

Follow Poll Watch on Twitter

Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Sharp Partisan Divide Over Government Role in Fighting Obesity, Poll Finds

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-08T13:58:00+00:00

Filed under: Polls, Sarah Palin, Poll Watch, Congress, Michelle Obama, Tea Party

The campaign against obesity launched just over a year ago by Michelle Obama has attracted its share of criticism and derision from conservatives such as Sarah Palin, Rush Limbaugh and Michele Bachmann.

Bachmann accused the first lady last month of trying to create a "nanny state" because of her proposal to encourage breastfeeding as a way to reduce the childhood obesity problem. Palin told conservative talk show host Laura Ingraham last November, "What [Mrs. Obama] is telling us is she cannot trust parents to make decisions for their own children, for their own families in what we should eat." And Limbaugh recently called her a hypocrite for preaching good nutrition habits but tucking into a meal of chili short ribs on a recent skiing trip.

(Not all conservatives share those negative views. On some of the Sunday talk shows last month, Mike Huckabee and Chris Christie, both politicians who have wrestled with their own weight problems, defended Mrs. Obama's anti-obesity efforts).

But a new Pew Research Center poll, conducted Feb. 22-March 1, makes clear that Republicans and adherents of the tea party movement are strongly against government involvement in efforts to tackle weight issues.

Americans overall support a "significant role" for government when it comes to reducing obesity. Fifty-seven percent say the government should be involved compared to 39 percent who disagree, with 3 percent undecided. That said, the public does not think the fight against obesity should be a top government priority, with only 19 percent of those surveyed saying that it should.

However, 57 percent of Republicans say the government should not be involved, and the percentage is a little higher among those who describe themselves as conservative (61 percent).

Sixty-five percent of those who agree with the tea party movement say the government should not play a role.

Seventy-one percent of Democrats favor a government role, as do 57 percent of independents.

Follow Poll Watch on Twitter

Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Lack of a GOP Front-Runner for 2012 at Odds With Republican History

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-07T11:51:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Polls, Sarah Palin, 2012 President, Poll Watch, Newt Gingrich

Although the contest for the GOP presidential nomination may seem far away (for all except those gearing up for it), there has been a lot of comment about the potential Republican field, ranging from those who regard it as weak to the fact that no one has emerged yet as a front-runner, at least according to polls.

Gallup says that situation is not typical. In reviewing its polling dating back to 1952, Gallup notes that in every presidential year up until now, there was a clear front-runner at this stage of the campaign and that, in most but not all cases, the front-runner won the nomination.

There have been a few twists and turns in that general pattern. It may have faded from memory now, but in 2007, Rudolph Giuliani was way out in front in Republican preference polls, leading John McCain by 42 percent to 25 percent in February of that year, with the remainder of support spread among other candidates or undecided. Giuliani faded fast after making the mistake of skipping the early primary states, and McCain, who had been the presumed front-runner aside from the 2007 poll, got a scare when Mike Huckabee went from a blip on pollsters' radar screens to winning the Iowa caucuses.

'Feelings Thermometer': Michelle Obama Ranks 'Warmest' With Voters, Pelosi 'Coldest'

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-07T06:30:00+00:00

Filed under: George W. Bush, Republicans, Mitt Romney, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Ron Paul, Polls, Bill Clinton, Michael Bloomberg, Sarah Palin, Poll Watch, Harry Reid, Michelle Obama, Newt Gingrich, Mitch McConnell, Barack Obama, John Boehner, 2012 Elections

Everyone is used to the familiar "horse race" poll that tells us who is out front when it comes to a campaign, but Quinnipiac University has a different measure for some of today's leading political personalities: namely, who ranks the "warmest" and "coldest" on a "feelings thermometer"?

The winner when it comes to warmest? First lady Michelle Obama, with former President Bill Clinton close behind. The coldest? Sarah Palin and Nancy Pelosi. (Actually, Harry Reid ranks right in between them, but more later on why his result doesn't count as much).

The way Quinnipiac did this poll, which was conducted among registered voters Feb. 21-28, was to ask those surveyed to "choose any number between 0 and 100. The higher the number, the warmer or more favorable you feel toward that person, the lower the number, the colder or less favorable." The pollster then calculated a mean score for each.

But possibly a more bracing result for some of the politicians than being seen as "cold" was the measure of how little some of them are known nationwide, despite the relentless coverage they may get in Washington.

Quinnipiac asked respondents to say if they did not know enough about the person to rate him or her. The list of "least knowns" was topped by many of the Republicans who are considering making a run for president in 2012: former ambassador to China Jon Huntsman (84 percent don't know him); Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana (78 percent); former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota (67 percent); Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi (65 percent); and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania (63 percent).

Now, back to Harry Reid. He may be the Senate majority leader and was much in the news last year because of his high-profile re-election contest against tea party favorite Sharron Angle, but 37 percent do not know enough about him to express an opinion. That's much less the case with his company at the "cold" end of the list - Palin, who is unknown by only 4 percent, and Pelosi, unknown by 15 percent.

At the other end of the thermometer, first-term Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, who has been a hit on the speaking circuit lately, ranks as the third warmest, but 55 percent don't know enough about him, compared with Mrs. Obama (4 percent), Bill Clinton (2 percent) and President Obama (everyone knows him).

While Democrats feel almost equally warm about President Obama and Bill Clinton, Republicans are fonder of Clinton: His mean "temperature" among them was 41.5, compared with 30.4 for Obama.

The temperatures for Palin and Pelosi are a measure of how polarizing each is. Palin is seen warmly by 63.8 percent of Republicans while Pelosi gets a score of 58.2 from Democrats. But the feelings they inspire in members of the opposite party are cold indeed: Palin gets a 15.6 from Democrats and Pelosi gets a 13.1 from Republicans.

Follow Poll Watch on Twitter

Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Huckabee Narrowly Leads the GOP Presidential Pack Among Fox News Viewers

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-06T09:41:00+00:00

Filed under: Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Polls, Sarah Palin, 2012 President, Poll Watch, Newt Gingrich

The news last week that Fox News had suspended the contracts of two prospective GOP presidential candidates -- Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum -- left open the question of when and whether similar action would be taken on two other much-mentioned prospects, Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee.

So, with so many possible Republican prospects in the Fox ranks, Gallup asked this question: Who runs best among Fox News listeners given that the network's critics say the political preferences of Fox and its audiences tilt pretty clearly to the GOP.

The winner of the Fox "presidential primary" is Huckabee who tops the list for regular Fox viewers at 18 percent, followed by Mitt Romney at 17 percent, Palin at 13 percent and Gingrich at 13 percent. Santorum was way back at 3 percent, according to the poll conducted Feb. 18-20. The margin of error is 3 points so no one in the top four is too far apart when it comes to viewer support. Gallup defined regular viewers as those who tune in four to five times a week.

Gingrich suffers the biggest gap of the potential candidates between his level of support among Fox News viewers compared to the Republicans who are non-viewers, with only 6 percent among the non-viewers compared to the 13 percent among Fox regulars.

Thirty-eight percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they watch Fox News four to five nights a week. Seventeen percent watch two or three nights a week, 11 percent only one night a week and 33 percent don't watch at all.

Follow Poll Watch on Twitter

Visit the Poll Watch Home Page and see all the latest polls in one place

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Public Support for Gay Marriage on Verge of Surpassing Opposition

David Gibson — 2011-03-05T22:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Democrats, Republicans, Abortion, Gay Rights, Race Issues, Polls, Obama Administration, Culture, Disputations, Poll Watch, Congress, Conservatives, Liberals, Moderates, 2012 Elections

Gay marriage is continuing to gain acceptance among the public -- the latest survey from the Pew Research Center shows Americans almost evenly split between those who oppose and those who support same-sex marriage.

According to the poll, conducted during the last week of February, 45 percent of Americans say gays and lesbians should be allowed to marry, up from 37 percent in 2009 (and just 27 percent in 1996) while 46 percent oppose same-sex marriage, down from 54 percent two years ago, and down from a 65 percent disapproval rate in 1996.

Partisan differences remain stark, with 57 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of independents backing gay marriage. Only one in four Republicans support the right of gays to marry, but that is up from 15 percent in 1996.

Newly released data from the General Social Surveys (GSS) shows an even more striking shift, with a solid majority of 46 percent supporting gay marriage and just 40 percent in opposition.

As Charles Franklin notes at the Huffington Post, recent polls on same-sex marriage show approval for for civil unions, which was once considered by many to be the "safe alternative" to gay marriage, has remained flat while support for same-sex marriage itself has surged. And the rise is occurring not only among younger Americans.

"The trends here show that opposition to gay marriage is becoming a less and less acceptable position through the public more generally," Franklin writes. "It is not merely the young who are shifting views. While individual states are certain to vary widely in the balance of public opinion, the national shift is so striking and so regular that it is hard to imagine this issue will remain in doubt for much longer."

The latest shift is especially notable in that it comes as social conservatives have drawn a line in the sand against gay marriage, and just after President Obama announced his administration would no longer argue in court on behalf of the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA), which defines marriage as a legal union between one man and one woman.

But Republicans are ascendant in Washington and in statehouses across the country. And pollsters note that the public often reacts to shifts in political power by backing issues of the party that is perceived to be losing influence, preferring that lawmakers not go too far one way, especially on uncomfortable and polarizing issues like gay marriage and abortion.

In fact, support for legal abortion dropped from 55 percent to 47 percent in the first year of Obama's term, perhaps reflecting concerns that he would move too far too fast in liberalizing abortion rights. Support for abortion rights had since rebounded, the recent Pew survey shows, to 54 percent -- again a possible backlash against the GOP's sweeping takeover of the U.S. House in January and the Republican decision to make curtailing abortion rights and funding its top priority.

Social conservatives can take some solace in the fact that the degree of support for the anti-abortion position has remained relatively stable.

But the trend lines on gay marriage do not bode well for the conservative cause, and as Politics Daily reported, the relatively low-key Republican response to Obama's DOMA decision suggested that waning public backing is going to translate into diminishing political clout.

Indeed, Albert Mohler, president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, told Focus on the Family's Jim Daly last week that "it's clear that something like same-sex marriage -- indeed, almost exactly what we would envision by that -- is going to become normalized, legalized, and recognized in the culture."

"It's time," Mohler added, "for Christians to start thinking about how we're going to deal with that."

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Mike Huckabee Holds Strong Lead Among Conservative Christian Bloc

David Gibson — 2011-03-04T21:25:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Mitt Romney, Religion, Mike Huckabee, Polls, Sarah Palin, 2012 President, Disputations, Conservatives, Newt Gingrich, Barack Obama

Mike Huckabee has been making waves lately for his comments about Natalie Portman's out-of-wedlock pregnancy and Barack Obama's "anti-colonial" boyhood, but a new poll shows the former Arkansas governor and Republican presidential hopeful still seems to be the hands-down favorite of conservative Christian voters who will be critical to securing the nomination.

The survey from the Barna Group, a leading Christian research organization, also indicates that Huckabee could go toe-to-toe with all Republican challengers, and he would be the toughest foe for President Obama in November 2012.

Huckabee, a former Baptist pastor, is strongest among evangelical Christians -- the 7 percent of the population that Barna defines by the strictest criteria of traditional faith and biblical literalism -- with an 88 percent favorable rating, followed by former Alaska governor and 2008 GOP vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin, with a 79 percent favorable ranking.

The field tails off considerably from there among evangelicals, with Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney -- who are widely expected to be among the first to throw their hats in the ring -- clocking 57 and 56 percent favorability ratings, respectively.

President Obama registers a meager 6 percent approval rating among this group, and an eye-opening 94 percent unfavorability rating.

Among "born again Christians" -- a pivotal and largely Republican-leaning group in the last three elections that Barna describes as "considerably less conservative than its evangelical subset" -- Huckabee still leads, with a 58 percent favorability rating. But Romney surges to a 49 percent positive ranking, just behind Palin at 53 percent. Gingrich polls at just 43 percent among born again Christians.

Among all Republicans, Palin and Romney post 69 percent favorability scores, but Huckabee is just behind with a 68 percent favorable rating. Gingrich generated a 62-32 positive-to-negative score among members of his party.

Spread across all voters, the numbers for the leading GOP candidates reflected other recent polls, as Huckabee still led, with 44 percent of adults holding a favorable view and 38 percent a negative view of him, followed by Romney, at an almost even 40-39 favorable-to-unfavorable ratio.

But the numbers for Palin (36 percent favorable) and Gingrich (32 percent favorable) fall off sharply from there.

An analysis by the Barna Group, which is led by evangelical Christian George Barna, concludes that while Obama stands "a better-than-even chance of being re-elected . . . Mrs. Palin would be the easiest opponent for him to defeat, while Mr. Huckabee would be the toughest adversary."

The numbers also suggest, however, that Huckabee's greatest electoral challenge could be securing his own party's nomination. In 2008, Huckabee's support among religious conservatives propelled him through the primaries, but he still finished second to John McCain.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

What Would Jesus Cut? Deficit Debate Rallies Christians -- and Exposes Divisions

David Gibson — 2011-03-03T22:25:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Religion, Taxes, Polls, Disputations, Congress, Conservatives, Liberals, Deficit, Tea Party, White House, Economy, John Boehner, 2012 Elections

"What would Jesus do?" That question has for years been a powerful slogan for conservative Christians who want to challenge Americans to conform to Gospel teachings. But now that some are applying the rallying cry to the nation's divisive budget battles, it is also exposing divisions among Christians as much as it is offering a united witness of faith -- or public policy.

Earlier this week a coalition of dozens of progressive Christian leaders led by Jim Wallis of Sojourners launched a campaign, "What would Jesus cut?" with a full-page ad in Monday's edition of Politico, and the group is following it up by sending e-mails and orange wristlets with the slogan to all members of Congress in an effort to prevent cuts for the poor and reduce defense spending.

Then on Thursday, a group of prominent evangelicals with a more conservative cast (though some signed onto both initiatives) launched a "A Christian Proposal for American Debt Crisis" that focuses on the deficit as a moral issue -- much as House Speaker John Boehner did this week -- but which also opposes the Republican-led effort to address the debt by slashing discretionary spending.

"Effective programs that prevent hunger and suffering and empower poorer members of society must continue and be adequately funded," the latest petition says.

Yet even as these Christian leaders, many of them card-carrying conservatives, push to spare the poor while reducing the deficit, they face serious internal tensions and fractures on two fronts: among themselves, on the one hand, and between these leaders and the folks in the pews, on the other.

Among the leadership, one clear difference of opinion is over what ought to be cut. Some would spare foreign aid to the poor and sacrifice more on the domestic side, while others disagree about whether defense spending should be significantly reduced. And the minefield of entitlement reform is treaded on ever so lightly, much as it is on both sides of the aisle in Washington.

At the same time, these faith-based campaigns focus almost exclusively on the issue of cutting spending and largely avoid the dreaded "t-word" -- taxes -- which has the potential to splinter any coalition.

For example, the "Christian Proposal for American Debt Crisis" launched on Thursday has only a broadly worded phrase near the end that says Congress "should remove many special exemptions, end many special subsidies, and keep the tax code progressive."

"Our general statement says we keep the tax code progressive. It doesn't say exactly how we do that," Ron Sider of Evangelicals for Social Action, a chief organizer of the petition, said on a Thursday conference call with other signatories that was organized by the liberal-leaning group, Faith in Public Life.

Sider said he would personally support a tax increase on the wealthiest Americans but acknowledged that not all of his colleagues agree with him.

Indeed, only one of the other five evangelicals on the call, Michael Gerson, former chief speechwriter for President George W. Bush, who is now a fellow at the ONE Campaign and a columnist for the Washington Post, responded to a question about tax hikes, and he cautioned against the idea because he said it would undermine economic growth.

Yet even modest language on protecting anti-poverty programs, for example, which are a relatively miniscule part of the federal budget, were seen as tantamount to "heresy" by Peter Wehner, writing at Commentary, about the "What Would Jesus Cut?" campaign.

Wehner's critique points directly to the other fault line facing Christian leaders advocating for the poor, namely the veritable gulf between even the more conservative activists like Michael Gerson and the believers in the pews.

As a recent Pew survey showed, evangelical Christians in particular are significantly more likely than other Americans to favor spending cuts on aid to poor people in the United States and overseas, and cuts on spending on behalf of the unemployed, environmental protection, scientific research, health care and education.

"I would say that we need an ongoing biblical dialogue with my brother and sister evangelicals," is how Ron Sider diplomatically phrased his reaction to the survey.

Shane Claiborne of The Simple Way, another speaker at Thursday's press conference, was more direct:

"I think that much of evangelical Christianity has lost the centeredness of Jesus and Jesus' heart for the poor and Jesus' Beatitudes and the Sermon on the Mount," he said. "We're starting with Christians because in some ways we've forgotten the 2,000 [Bible] verses that dare us and challenge us to remember the poor."

Claiborne called defense spending the "elephant in the room" that no one wanted to talk about, a reflection of the fact that the Pew survey showed that the only sectors of the federal budget on which evangelicals wanted to increase spending more than the rest of the public was defense and fighting crime.

Likewise, Gideon Strauss, president of Center for Public Justice, seemed to reject the philosophy of the tea party movement -- which surveys show is disproportionately composed of conservative white evangelicals -- when he declared Thursday that "those who disdain government and the political process dishonor God and their own humanity."

That's a powerful bit of preaching, but it's hard to see how it can affect a conversion on a flock that is in no mood to hear about shared sacrifices. Even more daunting is the task of translating such lofty principles into policy proposals that could unite Christian leaders themselves while having any chance of achieving their shared goals of protecting social programs while reducing the deficit and not raising taxes.

In the end, the Devil is always in the details, whether it's a question of the federal budget or what Jesus really meant.

Permalink | Email this | Linking Blogs | Comments

Politics Daily

Half of Americans Approve of Obama's Handling of Libya

Opposition Rises to Increased Nuclear Power Use; Offshore Drilling Support Rebounds

Democrats, Republicans, Independents Differ on Issues That Worry Them Most

As States Struggle With Deficits, Few Proposals for Cutting Red Ink Get Majority Support

Related Stories

Support for Construction of Nuclear Plants in the U.S. Drops Following Japan Crisis

Palin Seen More Negatively by Republicans Than Other Possible 2012 Candidates, Poll Finds

Republicans Losing Their Advantage on How to Handle the Deficit, Poll Finds

Huckabee, Bachmann Score Highest in GOP 2012 Field on 'Positive Intensity' of Support

Poll Shows Faith in Government Plummets; Warning Signs for Republicans Emerge

New Poll Shows Public Split Over U.S. Enforcing a Libya 'No-Fly' Zone

Related Stories

Most Americans Back a 'No-Fly Zone' Over Libya, But Oppose Stronger Moves

Americans Turning More to Mobile Devices for News

Poll Finds Sharp Partisan Divide on Islam-Violence Connection

Sharp Partisan Divide Over Government Role in Fighting Obesity, Poll Finds

Lack of a GOP Front-Runner for 2012 at Odds With Republican History

Related Stories

'Feelings Thermometer': Michelle Obama Ranks 'Warmest' With Voters, Pelosi 'Coldest'

Huckabee Narrowly Leads the GOP Presidential Pack Among Fox News Viewers

Public Support for Gay Marriage on Verge of Surpassing Opposition

Mike Huckabee Holds Strong Lead Among Conservative Christian Bloc

What Would Jesus Cut? Deficit Debate Rallies Christians -- and Exposes Divisions