Politics Daily

Mitt Romney in New Hampshire: Lots of Buzz but No Announcement -- Yet

Tom Diemer — 2011-03-05T18:01:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Mitt Romney, Primaries, Obama Administration, 2012 President, Governors, Campaigns, Unemployment, Jobs, Economy, Barack Obama

It falls short of any campaign launch, but Mitt Romney's appearance at a Republican dinner in New Hampshire Saturday created plenty of political buzz over the weekend.

Romney, who served as governor of neighboring Massachusetts between 2003 and 2007, finished a close second to Sen. John McCain in the state's first-in-the-nation GOP primary three years ago. And winning New Hampshire will be an imperative if -- as is widely speculated -- he runs for president again in 2012.

Romney planned to give the keynote address Saturday at the sold-out Carroll County Lincoln-Reagan Day Dinner in Bartlett, N.H., according to the Union Leader of Manchester.

No announcement about his plans for next year was expected, but that didn't tamp down interest in the potential candidate's first sighting in the Granite State since the mid-term elections.

In fact, the text of his speech was in wide circulation hours before the dinner. CNN, and other news outlets, said Romney's prepared remarks argue that President Obama "created a deeper recession and delayed the recovery" by expanding government and borrowing trillions of dollars. He talks about something he calls the "Obama Misery Index:" continuing unemployment, foreclosures and bankruptcies.

His speech comes a day after the unemployment rate fell below 9 percent for the first time in nearly two years. In Miami, Fla. Friday, Obama noted that 220,000 jobs were added in the private sector in February -- marking the 12th straight month of job growth.

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Rep. Michele Bachmann to Headline New Hampshire Fundraiser

Christopher Weber — 2011-02-28T14:30:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Primaries, 2012 President, Tea Party, 2012 Elections

In an another trip to an early primary state, Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) heads to New Hampshire next month to headline a fundraiser.

The tea party favorite, who's a likely GOP presidential candidate next year, will appear at a big ticket brunch March 12 in Nashua for the New Hampshire Republican State Committee, The Wall Street Journal reported.

"Michele is an outspoken defender of our constitution and as a small business owner and a mother who has raised five children and twenty-three foster children, she knows firsthand the struggles our families face and is leading the fight to bring fiscal conservatism back to our nation," Jack Kimball, chairman of the New Hampshire GOP, said in a statement.

Bachmann, a third-term congresswoman, has become a superstar in the tea party, which has considerable influence in the Granite State GOP.

Bachmann has made frequent trips to states key to the presidential nominating process, including Iowa and South Carolina.

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus will also travel to New Hampshire for a March fundraising event, The Hill reported Monday.

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Newt Gingrich for President? Don't Underestimate Him

Matt Lewis — 2011-02-28T07:50:00+00:00

Filed under: Primaries, 2012 President, Conservatives, Newt Gingrich, Matt Lewis and the News, 2012 Elections

With reports that former Speaker Newt Gingrich is set to soon announce an exploratory committee for a presidential run, a lot of folks are already dismissing his chances -- some even saying that Obama should be so lucky as to have Gingrich win the nomination (though they don't expect he could even win a primary).

But underestimating Gingrich's chances -- especially in light of a likely weak GOP primary field -- would be a mistake for several reasons.

First, Gingrich has ideas -- and at the end of the day, politics is still about ideas. What is more, unlike some leaders, Newt can also communicate his ideas. Sadly, his arguments might be diluted in debates featuring a crowded field of competitors. But can you imagine Gingrich in a one-on-one scenario against, say, Mitt Romney -- or, for that matter, anyone?

In a one-on-one format, my money's on Gingrich to at least hold his own -- and, at best, to dominate his opponent.

And Gingrich has something else that is vital: energy (no, not "Drill, Baby, Drill!" kind of energy -- but get-up-early-and-work-hard-all-day energy).

Fred Thompson provided a great example in 2008 of how a candidate with tremendous buzz can quickly flame out when he lacks such energy and "fire in the belly" necessary to kiss babies, shake hands and put forth his message day in and day out.

Energy is vital on a grueling campaign trail where hitting dozens of breakfast spots in places like Manchester, N.H., can be tedious. Some candidates (like Bill Clinton) actually seemed to gain energy from the throngs, while most are just flat worn out by them. One gets the sense that Gingrich is more like the former (though the real test will be whether he has the patience to suffer fools with a smile).

Clearly, though, Gingrich is energetic. How many books has he churned out? How many organizations does he head? How many speeches does he give? It's hard to imagine anyone out-hustling him on the campaign trail, and hard work pays off.

But aside from all that, Gingrich also has a proven track record of success that no other Republican can come close to matching.

Name another one whose vision turned around his party after decades in the wilderness -- or who has a track record of taking a leadership role in helping balance the federal budget (which, last time I checked, was an important issue this year).

Haley Barbour did a great job running the RNC and Mitt Romney turned around companies and the Olympics -- but who can match Gingrich's record of winning back the House for the first time in 40 years -- and then actually helping to balance the budget? It occurs to me that these accomplishments are not as widely appreciated as they will be.

There is no doubt Gingrich has plenty of baggage (both personal and political) that would come up in a campaign. But my argument is that ideas, energy, and a proven track record of success can cover a multitude of sins.

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Tea Party Candidate Jamie Radtke Hopes to Beat George Allen in Virginia

Matt Lewis — 2011-02-25T12:59:00+00:00

Filed under: Senate, Republicans, Primaries, Conservatives, Matt Lewis and the News, 2012 Elections

Former Sen. George Allen is hoping to win back his Senate seat in Virginia next year, and with Democratic Sen. Jim Webb deciding not to seek re-election, Republicans have a good chance of reclaiming it.

But Allen's biggest obstacle might be getting past Jamie Radtke -- a conservative mom who holds a master's degree in public policy, has worked on Capitol Hill, and has become a popular tea party leader in Virginia.

Radtke (who tells me she once worked for Allen as a receptionist), has already raised more than $100,000 and clearly hopes to frame the election as a choice between an establishment insider versus a grassroots conservative. (In a recent interview with me, Allen pushed back hard against the notion he was "establishment").

"We need to show that we're a viable candidate," Radtke concedes, adding that the public has made it clear "they're not wanting to look backward -- that they're not wanting to do business as usual ... they want a new generation of leadership."

But while the insider/outsider frame is likely vital to her success, Radtke is also focusing on some of Allen's past votes. When asked, she specifically cites Allen's earmarks, his vote against Fannie and Freddie reform, and his support of Medicare Part D, "which is the largest expansion of the health care system since Obamacare."

Aside from the normal challenges facing a grassroots campaign against a popular former governor and senator, the other problem Radtke may have is that it is very possible several conservative alternatives to Allen might run, splitting the outsider vote, and helping assure Allen of a victory.

For now, at least, Radtke is focusing her campaign on Allen.

"George Allen was a good governor," she tells me, "but he's been a politician for three decades -- and I think that Virginians want something new."

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Veteran Sen. Dick Lugar Gets Challenge From the Right in Indiana

Tom Diemer — 2011-02-22T12:36:00+00:00

Filed under: Senate, Republicans, Primaries, Governors, Conservatives, Campaigns, Moderates, Mayors, Tea Party, 2012 Elections

Indiana state Treasurer Richard Mourdock announced Tuesday that he will challenge Sen. Dick Lugar in the Republican primary next year in a bid to deny the respected senior lawmaker a seventh term.

Mourdock, a conservative, said he has the backing of a majority of Indiana's 92 GOP county chairmen and also an edge in support on the state party executive committee. But he told the Washington Post he is not running as a tea party candidate because he does not want to be defined in such a limited way.

"Mr. Lugar will try to paint me that way, because he's speaking very demeaningly about the tea party right now," Mourdock said. "I think he's doing it that way to set it up and say, 'Mourdock is some wild-eyed extremist.' " Yet, Mourdock, in the interview, seemed to want it both ways, making it clear he welcomed the support of the grassroots conservatives identified with tea party groups.

Lugar, 78, said in January he intends to run again next year and he's already raised at least $2.4 million to throw into the effort. Though conservative, he works well with Senate Democrats and supported the Obama administration's START treaty with Russia, which apparently angered some in the tea party movement. He fought back, saying tea party activists and other opponents of the arms pact need to "get real" and talk seriously about an agreement designed to remove Russian nuclear warheads from circulation.

Lugar, the top ranking Republican on the Foreign Relations Committee, is practically a household word in Indiana. He is the former mayor of Indianapolis and ran for president briefly in 1996.

Mourdock, 59, a businessman and onetime oil company geologist, is in his second term as state treasurer. He said he thinks Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) and Gov. Mitch Daniels will stay neutral in the state's Senate primary in May 2012, but Daniels has served in the past as Lugar's campaign chairman.

Folo Tom Diemer on Twitter http://twitter.com/tomdiemer

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Haley Barbour Won't OK Klan-Linked Mississippi License Plate

Tom Diemer — 2011-02-22T11:26:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Primaries, Gaffes, Race Issues, 2012 President, Governors, Conservatives

Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour now says if a proposal to issue a license plate honoring a Confederate general -- who became an early leader of the Ku Klux Klan -- ever reaches his desk, he won't approve it.

Earlier this month, Barbour sidestepped the issue when asked about the special tag that would commemorate Nathan Bedford Forrest, a Civil War general and later a Klan member. It's not going to happen, he said. In answer to a reporter's question about whether he would condemn those advocating for the new plate, the Republican governor also said he wasn't in the business of denouncing people -- in this case the Sons of Confederate Veterans.

But in an interview in Iowa with Mike Glover of the Associated Press, Barbour revisited the issue, noting that he said "accurately this is not going to happen. The bureaucracy denied it, the legislature won't pass it, and if the legislature passes it, it won't become law because I won't sign it."

Barbour told the AP he denounces the Ku Klux Klan, but isn't interested in making it personal, whether an individual has "been dead 100 years or not." Forrest quit the 19th Century Klan when the secretive organization turned to violence, according to historical accounts.

Barbour, who is considering a run for president, was in Iowa -- the state holding the first 2012 caucus -- to assure Republican activists he is serious about a national campaign. He told the AP he does not think he carries any political baggage related to race issues.

Now 63, Barbour says he was "school kid" during much of the civil rights movement and is focused these days on the progress the South had made since those turbulent times in the 1960s.

He caught flak earlier this year when he credited a group called the White Citizens Council with keeping the Klan out of his hometown of Yazoo City. He later backtracked, saying, "My point was my town rejected the Ku Klux Klan, but nobody should construe that to mean I think the town leadership were saints either. Their vehicle, called the 'Citizens Council,' is totally indefensible, as is segregation."

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Presidential Primaries: Why We Need a Better Way to Pick Nominees

Robert Schmuhl — 2011-02-20T22:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Primaries, Democratic Convention, 2012 President, Campaigns, 2012 Elections

What's the matter with Iowa?

That's a question worth asking as news from the Hawkeye state circulates about
next year's presidential caucuses, scheduled for Feb. 6, 2012.

According to a recent Associated Press dispatch from Des Moines, Mitt Romney and other potential Republican White House aspirants are considering strategies of avoiding or not emphasizing Iowa in their nomination bids.

With conservatives, particularly evangelical Christians, so involved in Iowa GOP politics, Romney and someone like Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana (who is on record for wanting "to call a truce on the so-called social issues") could face a less-than-fertile political landscape.

Presidential Primary Calendar in Peril as Florida Insists on Early 2012 Date

In Romney's case, a different approach to the caucuses would be an attempt to keep history from repeating itself. In 2008, $10 million and 200 staffers resulted in a weak second-place finish to the penny-pinched, little-assisted Mike Huckabee, 34 percent to 25 percent. Romney learned the lesson that the state's caucus system invariably brings out a high percentage of the most committed party faithful, which can pose problems for candidates who are perceived as mainstream.

For 2012, the former Massachusetts governor and early front-runner in polls could well follow John McCain's 2008 example of subordinating Iowa -- McCain ended up fourth with 13 percent -- to devote more resources and time to the New Hampshire primary, set for Feb. 14.

Although the national committees of the Republicans and Democrats jointly agreed months ago to allow Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada to keep their February first-in-line dates for the contests a year from now -- with everyone else voting in March or later -- there's already less-than-secret plotting in certain states to jump ahead and break the rules.

In Florida, for instance, GOP state legislators want a January primary -- and all the news coverage it would bring. And Florida isn't alone in wanting more clout and attention.
Whatever actually happens, when will Americans realize the (to-be-kind) shortcomings of the state-vs.-state nominating system and demand a more logical, purposeful national process that operates beyond the whims and ambitions of individual states?

Since 1968, when there were just 15 states with presidential primaries, Democratic and Republican candidates have had to endure a growing number of state-based contests spread out over several months. Some states hold Democratic and Republican primaries on different days, while others conduct a primary for one party and a caucus for the other. Is this any way to select the nominees for the nation's highest office?

One plan to remove this every-state-for-itself arrangement (or derangement) is to create a regional nominating system with, say, 10 states forming each region. Then, over a five-month period, beginning in March, candidates could compete in a specific, defined region rather than in one state or the mishmash of more than 20 state contests that occurred on Feb. 5, 2008.

To keep the playing fields as level as possible, the order of regional voting wouldn't be determined until the January of that election year, possibly as part of the State of the Union address or some other civic occasion.

Such a set-up means that candidates could be touring the United States during preceding months, trying out their messages and building support on a national basis before embarking on campaigns in specific areas of the country.

One advantage of a regional system is that candidates would not have to target their appeal to narrow, state-centric constituencies that cater to a party's more extreme followers. Moreover, with each passing cycle, the random ordering would give larger numbers of voters the feeling they have more of a say in the nominating process.

In other words, it's time to look beyond individual states -- like Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada -- and consider a more representative, democratic way of selecting presidential nominees. To be sure, the 2008 race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton proved thrilling all the way to early June when it was finally decided. But that extended, competitive slugfest is the exception.

Usually, the likely Democratic and Republican standard bearers are known in either February or early March -- as was the case with McCain in 2008 -- with citizens in most states harboring the feeling of being left out.

No potential White House aspirant will ever utter a discouraging word about the current system or any early state, but that shouldn't stop the people from lobbying Congress to initiate reform. A more methodical, rational process would involve more voters in the choice of presidential candidates and, just as important, impose order on the current chaos.

Instead of asking what's the matter with Iowa, the real question should be: What's the matter with America for not having a coherent procedure for selecting presidential nominees?

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Michele Bachmann, After House Budget Vote, Takes a Victory Lap in a 'GOP Paradise'

Mary C. Curtis — 2011-02-20T12:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Senate, House, Democrats, Republicans, Primaries, Taxes, Obama Administration, 2012 President, Woman Up, Governors, Conservatives, Deficit, Tea Party, Economy, Barack Obama, 2012 Elections

COLUMBIA, South Carolina - Michele Bachmann said she didn't get much sleep after a House vote slashed programs and cut spending. But the GOP House member and tea party heroine was energized as she was greeted by standing ovations at a gathering of the South Carolina Federation of Republican Women on Saturday.

"I come from the land of Al Franken, a tough neighborhood," the Minnesota congresswoman told the crowd of close to 200. "I'm in heaven."

Though the cuts to current federal spending have been totaled as $61 billion, Bachmann put the figure at $100 billion. She ticked off defunding the discretionary funding portion of "Obamacare," as she called health care legislation, and cutting off money for NPR, cap and trade programs and Planned Parenthood. "I was extremely excited about that one," she said of the last on her list.

Bachmann heaped praise on South Carolina, where Republicans control the congressional delegation, the governor's office and the statehouse, and she embraced the state's strong tea party presence. "You made a difference," she said. "We heard from people from all across America, but particularly in South Carolina where the tea party is very strong."

Speaking in this first-in-the-south presidential primary state, Bachmann looked forward to a Republican "triple crown" in 2012: a chance to build on the GOP takeover of the House by winning the Senate with "Jim DeMint clones" and taking back "this address called 1600 Pennsylvania Ave." She said that's the best way to turn back the debt and deficits and what she called "the crown jewel of socialism," health care reform legislation.

"I haven't made a decision either way if I am or I am not going to run, but the people of South Carolina are extremely important in this process," she said later. "I want to acquaint them with some of the issues and where I stand on them."

Bachmann, in fact, took special pains not to step on any Southern toes, prefacing a complimentary remark about Abraham Lincoln, the Civil War Republican president, with, "I know I'm taking a risk in South Carolina."

Rep. Joe Wilson introduced Bachmann on Saturday as "one of the most courageous conservatives" in the capital and she returned the compliment. "He is a big favorite of all of us in Washington, D.C.," she said.

While the South Carolina congressman's yell of "you lie" during President Obama's 2009 speech on health care reform (what some supporters call "the incident") may be infamous in certain circles, it's part of his appeal in the state where he was re-elected, and where his son Alan was just elected attorney general. Bachman joked that Wilson thought "he was watching the State of the Union on TV."

Wilson pumped every hand in the room on his way to the stage and told me he was "thrilled" by the House budget vote. "I believe our country's in crisis," he said.

Though Bachmann said, "I didn't come here to be Debbie Downer in a dark blue dress," she also sounded dire warnings about "whether the United States the way we know it will survive."

The former tax litigator said the country should "completely scrap our current tax code" and "start over." Bachmann called union workers in Wisconsin "hard-working people," but said she supported Gov. Scott Walker's tough stance on cost cutting and collective-bargaining rules. "Don't tell me about these starvation cuts," she said. "These are must-do."

In this socially conservative state, Bachmann also talked about the importance of religion, morality and virtue. It's "considered hate speech if we speak according to the tenets of our faith," she said. Her words resonated among many in a room where the luncheon prayer asked the Lord to choose "the very best candidate for president" so Republicans can "take our country back."

The women who had come from across the state lined up for photographs with Bachmann, the famous congresswoman, but aren't quite sold on Bachmann the presidential candidate - not yet, anyway.

"We need the enthusiasm and she's got it," said Connie Samuel, a tea party activist from Waterloo, South Carolina. "I hope she has the background to carry it through." Samuel is also a big fan of Sarah Palin but told me she wished the former governor of Alaska had stayed for her full term in office. She thinks Palin may run for president but hopes she doesn't. "I don't think she can win."

The president of the Spartanburg County Republican Women, Carole Self, worked for years as the Spartanburg clerk, so she can't bring herself to condemn government and what it can do. "Some days I have good feelings, some days bad." Jane Johnson, the group's treasurer, is a fiscal conservative, but the retired academic librarian doesn't believe the party should get involved in social issues. "I'm not like most Southerners that way," she said.

Sonny Googins, a retired state legislator from Connecticut, is becoming more politically active in Beaufort County, North Carolina, where she now lives. She was sitting at a table of transplants from Pennsylvania, Illinois, Massachusetts and Georgia. Googins thinks they can transform the Republican Party in South Carolina.

Googins, 74, said it's enlightening and "very refreshing" to be in a state where you have a Republican majority. But she lamented the lack of diversity in the room. "There are no black people here, except you," she said. Opening up the party has to "become part of an effort of things we give a damn about," she said. Googins was "delighted" to see and hear from Bachmann, and she was interested in hearing what other potential candidates and Republican names had to say.

She and other South Carolinians will have that chance.

The state's conservative bona-fides and presidential primary status have lured Sarah Palin, former Speaker Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Jon Huntsman of Utah, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas and others. Former Nevada Senate candidate Sharron Angle stopped by on Friday, and on Monday and Tuesday former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania plans to visit a Christian school, anti-abortion center and state party leaders.

Bachmann surely will return, as well. "A GOP paradise," she said, "that's what South Carolina is."

Click here to follow Mary C. Curtis on Twitter.

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Presidential Primary Calendar in Peril as Florida Insists on Early 2012 Date

Tom Diemer — 2011-02-18T12:28:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Primaries, Republican Convention, Voting, 2012 President, Governors, Campaigns, Barack Obama

A top Florida Republican says his state will likely hold to a Jan. 31 date for its presidential primary next year, upsetting the campaign calendar that traditionally has Iowa and New Hampshire leading off the season.

"I think we belong at the beginning of the national conversation about who the next president is," Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon told CNN on Thursday. ". . . I am aware of the risks, and people say it should be moved later, but I definitely favor keeping it early rather than moving it back like the parties are saying."

If Florida sticks to its plan -- despite protests from the national Republican and Democratic parties -- Iowa officials may be tempted to move up that state's caucuses, now set for Feb, 6, and the same thing could happen in New Hampshire, where the primary is now scheduled for Feb. 14. Nevada and South Carolina are next in line, with all other states ordered by the parties not to hold elections before March 1.

Cannon, noting that the Republican National Convention will be held next summer in Tampa, said he isn't too worried about sanctions from the national GOP. But he said Florida could consider moving back the primary date "a little bit, if the end result, whatever that date is, keeps Florida at the beginning or early in the dialogue." Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus is lobbying the state to stick to the rules, protecting the Iowa and New Hampshire dates. And Florida Gov. Rick Scott seems amenable to a compromise, the National Journal said.

In recent campaigns, officials in some states have scrambled for early primary dates to shine a spotlight on their regions while the presidential race was still competitive. In 2008, the urge to go early pushed the Iowa and New Hampshire contests ahead to just days into the new year, which forced candidates, their aides and reporters to spend time during the holidays on the campaign trail.

Unless a formidable primary challenger emerges to take on President Obama, the Republicans have far more at stake than Democrats in this argument, since Obama's nomination for a second term would be all but assured.

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Mitt Romney's New Hampshire Problem

Matt Lewis — 2011-02-17T16:52:00+00:00

Filed under: Senate, Republicans, Primaries, 2012 President, Conservatives, Matt Lewis and the News, 2012 Elections

In his book "Hardball," Chris Matthews recounts how an obscure lame-duck Southern governor built a national organization that took him all the way to the White House in 1976.

"His strategy was simple," writes Matthews. "Every Democrat who lost a primary election [in 1974] received a personal letter from the obscure Governor Jimmy Carter of Georgia."

Carter reasoned that political losers would be especially grateful to someone who reached out to them during a difficult time. What is more, he realized that even those who lost a campaign would have built an impressive political network in their state and district (that Carter could then tap into).

It obviously worked. He came out of nowhere to capture the Democratic nomination and then the presidency.

But just as those who lose a political campaign can be wooed, they can also be scorned. And that appears to be exactly what happened in New Hampshire when Mitt Romney declined to endorse 2010 Senate contender Ovide Lamontagne.

Here is the back story, as explained by Hotline's Reid Wilson:

Lamontagne, a lawyer by profession and the 1996 gubernatorial nominee, backed Romney during the 2008 primary. Two prominent Romney backers, Jim Merrill and Charlie Spies, were top Lamontagne aides, Merrill as campaign manager and Spies as a senior advisor.

In the final weeks of the primary campaign, Lamontagne was surging, making up ground on the better-known [Kelly] Ayotte and coalescing conservatives behind him. A kind word from Romney, who is popular among New Hampshire Republicans -- to say nothing of a full-throated endorsement -- would have done wonders for Lamontagne's campaign. As it turned out, Ayotte won by 1,659 votes, or 1.2 percent.

Now, of course, the chickens are coming home to roost. It is Romney who needs support in the Granite State. And when you consider the number of candidates who will be courting the Republican electorate, it's easy to see how someone who narrowly lost a U.S. Senate primary might be able to make or break a candidate's chances of winning the primary.

In fairness to Romney, choosing to stay out of a contested primary in New Hampshire made a certain amount of strategic sense. But it doesn't negate the fact that it appears Lamontagne -- or at least, some Lamontagne supporters -- still feel betrayed.

The latest example comes from Harold Turner, who was Lamontage's finance chairman during the 2010 race.

On his blog today, Turner writes,

Former Governor Romney missed an opportunity to seal the deal with Ovide's support when he failed to endorse Ovide and help fundraising in the 2010 US Senate primary race, which as we all know was decided on the day after the primary by about 1% of the vote between Ovide and now US Senator Kelly Ayotte. That move, or lack there of, didn't sit well with many Ovide supporters for obvious reasons.

Clearly, as politics go, it was the "safe" move at the time. However, in business and in life, the safe move doesn't always win the prize......no risk-no reward. Most of us can look back in our lives and see the decisions we could have made, but didn't, and the roads we would have then followed........ good or bad. Only time will tell for Mitt Romney. The next move is Ovide's.

A friend of mine once said, "Your friends will work all day to help you get elected, but your enemies will stay up all night to make sure you don't."

I don't have to tell you how important New Hampshire is in determining the GOP nominee for 2012, and it sounds like there will be some people in the Granite State who might just be staying up all night to make sure Romney doesn't win the primary.

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Nevada GOP Senate Fight Brewing as John Ensign Challenger Emerges

Tom Diemer — 2011-02-15T13:18:00+00:00

Filed under: House, Democrats, Republicans, Primaries, Scandal, Congress, Harry Reid, Campaigns, 2012 Elections

Sen. John Ensign (R-Nev.), fighting an ethics investigation on Capitol Hill, may soon face a challenge within his own party from Rep. Dean Heller, who has been encouraged by a favorable survey of his Senate prospects.

"I am taking a serious look at the race for U.S. Senate," Heller said in a statement to the Las Vegas Sun's Jon Ralston. The poll, taken for Heller last month by the nationally known Tarrance Group, gave him a 15-point lead in a hypothetical match-up with Ensign. The sample of 601 likely Republican voters had a margin of error of plus or minus four points.

An independent survey, conducted in early January by Public Policy Polling, also showed Heller with a substantial edge over Ensign in a two-person primary.

In Washington, Ensign has been dogged by reports of his extramarital affair with the wife of his former chief of staff, Doug Hampton. The Senate Ethics Committee has named a special counsel to investigate whether he broke the law or Senate rules in trying to get lobbying work for his former aide. But the two-term senator has said his 2012 campaign is going "full speed ahead."

Heller, who won a third U.S. House term last November, said he would announce a decision on the Senate race in the "near future." Nevada Democrats, who got Senate Majority leader Harry Reid reelected in 2010, might prefer the wounded Ensign as an opponent for their yet-to-be-determined candidate in 2012. The Nevada seat would be a key pickup for Democrats as they struggle to hold their majority in the Senate next year.

Dave Sackett, who oversaw the poll for Tarrance, said in a memo that the incumbent's base among Republicans was crumbling across the state, according to the Sun.

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In Ohio, Newt Gingrich Handicaps 2012 GOP Presidential Field

Politics Daily Staff — 2011-01-28T16:20:00+00:00

Filed under: Primaries, Abortion, Budget, Energy, Sarah Palin, Campaigns, Newt Gingrich, 2012 Elections

Sandwiched between visits to Iowa and New Hampshire, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich made time for Ohio Friday, where he planned to screen a film at a Right to Life event and also take part in a discussion on ethanol.

The Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire Primary are scheduled as the first contests in the 2012 presidential campaign season. But voter-rich Ohio, currently set for a March primary, always looms large, especially for GOP hopefuls.

Gingrich, who is expected to announce in early March of this year whether he will run for president, said Friday that three of his potential rivals already have an edge. He told the Columbus Dispatch that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is "the frontrunner in fundraising, [Sarah] Palin is the frontrunner in celebrity status and [Mike] Huckabee is the frontrunner in polling data." All three of them, he said, "should feel pretty good about where they're positioned right now."

But Gingrich has a friend in Ohio -- a "very close personal friend," he says -- in new Gov. John Kasich, who as a congressman headed the House Budget Committee when Gingrich served as speaker in the 1990s.

President Obama's victory in Ohio in 2008 was a coup for Democrats who lost the state to George W. Bush in 2004 and 2000. Earlier this week, former Republican National Chairman Ed Gillespie talked about the significance of Ohio in the 2012 political picture. "It's hard to see Obama getting reelected or a Republican winning election without winning Ohio," he said. "I would start there if I were advising our nominee."

At St. Charles High School Friday, the Columbus newspaper said Gingrich was to show a documentary he co-produced, "Nine Days that Shaped the World," about Pope John Paul II's role in the liberation of Poland and fall of communism.

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New Hampshire GOP Chooses Tea Party Activist to Lead Party Into 2012

Politics Daily Staff — 2011-01-22T18:16:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Primaries, 2012 President, Campaigns, 2012 Elections

Choosing a Republican state chairman is inside baseball -- typically far-removed from national news. Unless, of course, it happens in New Hampshire and involves the tea party movement. Throw in a straw poll on potential 2012 presidential candidates, and you've got yourself a story.

On Saturday, Republicans in a state that will host the nation's first presidential primary in February 2012 rejected an establishment favorite and chose Jack Kimball, a conservative activist who ran for governor last year, losing in the Republican primary.

In the state party race, Kimball defeated Juliana Bergeron, who was supported by former Gov. John Sununu, the departing chairman and onetime chief of staff to President George H.W. Bush. Sununu, arguing for Bergeron, said the GOP in New Hampshire should be "seen as a party that welcomes all views."

Although state chairmen customarily stay neutral in the New Hampshire primary, Kimball's victory could strengthen the tea party's hand in the state and serve notice to presidential candidates to stay on a straight and narrow conservative path.

The AP quoted Kimball as saying, "We are in a war and we are going to win it. We are going to pull ourselves from the brink. We are going after the Democrats the whole time."

In a straw poll of some 270 at the party meeting, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney -- a next door neighbor -- easily carried the day with 35 percent of the vote. He was trailed by Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, with 11 percent. The poll was sponsored by ABC News and WMUR-TV.

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Herman Cain Would Focus on Economy, National Security as President

Matt Lewis — 2011-01-13T10:05:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Primaries, Abortion, Gay Rights, Conservatives, Campaigns, White House, Matt Lewis and the News, 2012 Elections

On Wednesday, ex-Godfather's Pizza CEO and popular conservative radio host Herman Cain announced an exploratory committee for president. Today, he spoke with me about his potential run.

Cain promises an ambitious agenda if he is elected president, saying: "I plan to mobilize the public -- to not just stop stuff, but to get stuff done."

Saying "transparency starts with simplicity," Cain added he will "never sign a 2,700-page bill as president of the United States."

While Cain is an unabashed pro-life social conservative who believes in traditional marriage, he clearly sees the economy and national security as the most pressing issues on which to focus his time. As he told me:

I will not sign any legislation that is going to weaken traditional marriage, but I am not going to make getting a constitutional amendment on traditional marriage the centerpiece or the leading issue of my administration. We have a few issues relative to national security, the economy, spending immigration and education that I think we ought to focus on first.

Cain went on to add that "leadership is saying very clearly what our priorities are and what we are going to focus our energies on. There are some things that should not distract us from our most pressing priorities."

When asked what his campaign's message would be, Cain, who was a corporate vice president for Burger King before running Godfather's Pizza, answered, "Problem solver . . . that's what differentiates me from politicians."

Cain, who also served as chairman of the board of directors for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City -- and was chairman of the board for the National Restaurant Association -- cited his business experience when referencing how he would conduct a war: "I know how to listen to the people that know more about the problem than I do." He added, "We can't fight a politically correct war. . . . We can't fight a war on TV."

When asked whether being an African-American Republican might impact the race, he said: "Many black voters are looking at me as a refreshing opportunity as someone who does have a track record. I will pick up a sizable amount of the black vote -- not because of my color, but because of what I bring to the table."

Cain said he has been to New Hampshire several times recently and to Iowa seven times, with another trip there on Friday. He praised the early primary and caucus states for allowing "a much deeper vetting of candidates."

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Political Players to Watch in 2011: Marco Rubio, Newt Gingrich and More

Matt Lewis — 2010-12-31T11:50:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Primaries, 2010 Elections, Conservatives, Tea Party, Matt Lewis and the News, 2012 Elections

With 2010 almost behind us, it's time to think about the New Year.

Friday Morning, I was on MSNBC with Norah O'Donnell and Firedog Lake's Jane Hamsher to discuss some of the top political players to watch in 2011.

(My list included Florida Sen.-elect Marco Rubio, outgoing Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.)

You can watch a snippet of the video here:

And here's our discussion about Speaker-elect John Boehner:

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Iowa Could Hold January Presidential Vote as 2012 Date-Jockeying Looms

Tom Diemer — 2010-12-28T13:15:00+00:00

Filed under: Primaries, 2012 President, 2012 Elections

Another brutally early beginning of the presidential campaign may be in the offing as jealousy among states that want to be first in the primary and caucus season could advance the official 2012 calendar.

New Hampshire officials are already talking about moving up a proposed Feb. 14 date for that state's first-in-the-nation primary because Nevada is planning a presidential caucus four days later, the New York Times reported Tuesday. New Hampshire laws require the primary to be staged at least a week before any similar election elsewhere (except Iowa).

If New Hampshire bumps forward in February, Iowa -- whose caucuses are the very first 2012 event -- could follow suit since it has similar rules about having a space between the caucuses and the first primary. And that could mean the next presidential campaign would officially launch in the first month of 2012.

The Des Moines Register led its piece on the possibility of advancing the campaign calendar with "Here we go again." Two years ago, candidates, staff and many journalists had to forgo holiday festivities with their families because of the unprecedented early start of the 2008 campaign -- in Iowa on Jan. 3 and New Hampshire on Jan. 8.

If New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner sticks to his guns and insists on an earlier date for the primary, it would break an agreement between the two political parties to hold off on voting in 2012 until February. Word that the tentative Feb. 14 date in New Hampshire was imperiled first came from the Manchester Union Leader's John DiStaso.

Although neither state's population is representative of the broader electorate, Iowa and New Hampshire guard their lead-off roles in the presidential race because of the attention and income the campaigns bring them. The contests in both states, often snowbound, offer colorful glimpses of old-fashioned people-to-people retail politics and give the winners an advantage heading into the late-winter/early-spring primary season.

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Tea Party and CNN to Host 2011 Republican Presidential Debate in Florida

Tom Diemer — 2010-12-17T14:35:00+00:00

Filed under: Endorsements, Republicans, Mitt Romney, Debates, Primaries, Sarah Palin, Obama Administration, 2012 President, 2010 Elections, Campaigns, Newt Gingrich, Tea Party, Barack Obama, 2012 Elections

The Tea Party Express, one of several grassroots conservative groups with similar names that sprung up in the last two years, is teaming with CNN to stage a Republican presidential debate next September in Tampa, site of the 2012 Republican National Convention.

First New Hampshire Republican Primary Debate Set for June

Christopher Weber — 2010-12-14T18:47:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Primaries, 2012 President, 2012 Elections

New Hampshire voters looking forward to the first presidential debate for the 2012 Republican primary need only wait six months: it's been set for Tuesday, June 7, 2011 in Manchester.

The candidate showdown, one of the earliest in the election season, will be sponsored by the New Hampshire Union Leader, WMUR-TV, and CNN. It will be aired live on the two TV networks, and live video streams will be offered on CNN.com and WMUR.com, according to a Tuesday press release.

The exact location and time have not been announced.

"CNN is thrilled to again be working with the Union Leader and WMUR to produce a New Hampshire debate," Sam Feist, CNN's political director and vice president of Washington programming, said in the statement. "New Hampshire's unique role in the presidential nominating process will make this first New Hampshire debate a critical event of the 2012 presidential campaign."

The New Hampshire event won't be the first debate of the primaries. Last month, the Reagan Presidential Foundation said it would kick off the election season by hosting a panel of GOP presidential candidates in the spring.

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Joe Miller Won't Quit in Alaska, Asks State Supreme Court to Order Vote Recount

Tom Diemer — 2010-12-14T13:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Senate, Republicans, Primaries, Sarah Palin, Voting, 2010 Elections, Campaigns, Tea Party

Six weeks and counting. Republican Joe Miller, the apparent loser in the Alaska Senate race, has asked the state Supreme Court to order a hand recount of his contest with Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who ran as a write-in candidate. Oral arguments in the case, stemming from the Nov. 2 election, have been set for Friday.

Miller is appealing a lower court ruling that upheld the state's tally, which took into account voter intent on the write-in ballots cast with Murkowski's name written on them. Miller is arguing that every such ballot needed to have her name spelled correctly and entered in a precise spot on the voter form.

What Tea Party Candidates Could Learn From Their Elders

Matt Lewis — 2010-12-10T08:58:00+00:00

Filed under: Senate, Republicans, Primaries, 2010 Elections, Conservatives, Tea Party, Analysis, Matt Lewis and the News

Much of my concern with the "tea party" candidates who ran in 2010 had nothing to do with their political philosophy (much of which I share), but rather everything to do with their political sagacity and -- for lack of a better word -- competence (sadly, all criticism was treated equally by some -- as an example of apostasy).

Typically criticism was brushed aside the way a teenager might ignore his parents' admonitions. The message coming from the tea party seemed to be: "Times have changed, old man!"

Unfortunately, the problem with eschewing all the old ideas is that some of the things that have always been done caught on precisely because they are wise. As GOP campaign operative Ed Rollins, who co-managed Ross Perot's 1992 presidential run, told Perot in a moment of frustration (I'm paraphrasing): "I'm not trying to run a conventional campaign -- I'm just trying to run a campaign."

Some of the things that have always been done are the product of maturity and experience. This, of course, is Burkean.

Much of my concern with some of the tea party candidates was confirmed this week when it was revealed that two of the prominent conservative Senate candidates ended their races with hundreds of thousands of dollars in the bank.

As The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza reported:

Alaska Republican Joe Miller ended his general election campaign against Sen. Lisa Murkowski with nearly $1 million in the bank -- a sum that almost certainly could have helped what is looking more and more like a lost race. . . .

That Miller's campaign only spent about two-thirds of its cash should be cause for pause, especially considering that it looks like he will only lose by a few points.
Miller isn't the first tea party-backed candidate to commit what many will say is campaign malpractice.

Delaware's Christine O'Donnell (R), turned some heads when she ended her campaign with nearly $1 million in the bank. O'Donnell, who raised about twice as much as Miller, reasoned that she wanted to be prepared for legal wrangling after the race.

Though it has become unpopular in these modern times to seek political wisdom from wise old "establishment" figures, it occurs to me that Miller and O'Donnell could both have avoided their mistake by surrounding themselves with a Sherpa, so to speak.

The late Ronald Reagan aide Lyn Nofziger, in fact, wrote about this very mistake in his memoir, "Nofziger." (One can imagine that Miller and O'Donnell might have avoided their missteps had they only read it.)

Writing about Gerald Ford's 1976 loss to Jimmy Carter, Nofziger recounted:

Despite Ford's boo-boos, he might still have won if he'd had a couple of million dollars to spend at the last minute in key states. And the fact is, he did. Federal Election Committee records show the campaign had at least $1.7 million left on election day. But [campaign manager James] Baker had refused to spend it. Perhaps he wanted to save it to pay late bills, although any experienced politician knows you worry about winning first and paying bills last.

(Emphasis mine) . . .

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