Politics Daily

The Gridiron Club's 2011 Political/Media Roast and Toast Lyrics

Annie Groer — 2011-03-13T11:43:00+00:00

Filed under: George W. Bush, Senate, House, Democrats, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Dick Cheney, Nancy Pelosi, Ron Paul, Humor, Media, Bill Clinton, Governors, Congress, Conservatives, Harry Reid, Republic of Dish, Barack Obama, John Boehner, TSA Screening, 2012 Elections, Egypt Crisis

Once again, you won't see this costumed spoof on C-SPAN or YouTube, unless someone among the record 633 invited guests at Saturday night's 126th annual Gridiron Dinner surreptitiously captures the singing, dancing and wise-cracking and posts it online.

Of course there's always a chance an adroit cellphone or camera-toting guest will violate club rules, either at the dinner or at Sunday's matinee reprise show, thus busting an image-less tradition in place since 1885.

Say what you will about the irony or hypocrisy of a group of journalists barring media cameras from broadcasting the onstage antics (C-SPAN has been asking to do just that for a quarter century). Only the speeches by President Obama, Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana (cracking jokes for the Republicans) and Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sibelius (doing stand-up for the Dems) will be on the written record, although many more details will likely leak out.

In a nod to the times, tweeting, Facebooking and other instant communication about all aspects of the dinner were embargoed until it ended.

So in the interest of semi-transparency, herewith the lyrics from every parody performed
this weekend by nearly 100 journalists and a handful of vocally-blessed ringers with truly great voices.

Don't Stop Believin' (Journey/Glee)

DEMOCRATIC CHEERLEADERS singing about Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Obama

DEM CHEERLEADER 1

He came from Ha-wai-i, with hope, change and audacity.
Now two years later and he is on the run.

DEMOCRATIC CHEERLEADER 2

In a designer blouse, not long ago she ruled the House. She lost her power, and it's just no damn fun.

DEMOCRATIC CHEERLEADER 1

He calls her on the telephone.

DEMOCRATIC CHEERLEADER 2

Says Nancy, are you all alone?

BOTH

For a moment, they both shut their eyes, and dream on and on and on and on.
What if midterms, had turned out very differently?

DEMOCRATIC CHEERLEADER 1

What if red states had turned blue?

CHEERLEADER 1

What if we could, cap and trade and then we'd save the whales.

CHEERLEADER 2

Health care for all,

DEMOCRATIC CHEERLEADER 2

Dental too!

BOTH

Don't stop, believin'.

REPUBLICAN CHEERLEADERS 1& 2

Who are you deceivin'?

DEMOCRATIC CHEERLEADER 1

We're cooked.

DEMOCRATIC CHEERLEADER 2

We're through.

DEMOCRATIC CHEERLEADERS 1 & 2

Whoa oh oh!
Don't stop believin'.

REPUBLICAN CHEERLEADERS 1& 2

Dudes, you must be dreamin'.

DEMOCRATIC CHEERLEADER 1

Farewell.

DEMOCRATIC CHEERLEADER 2

Aloha.

DEMOCRATIC CHEERLEADERS 1 & 2

Whoa oh -oh!

CHORUS

Don't stop!

LIVIN' ON A PRAYER (Bon Jovi/Glee)

REPUBLICAN CHEERLEADER 1

Boehner used to work in a bar.
Palin hunts for moose, they're not very far.
Like Russia, they're in her yard.

REPUBLICAN CHEERLEADER 2

Bachmann would repeal this whole room.
Newt is back for more, O'Donnell might fly in soon, On her broom.

REPUBLICAN CHEERLEADER 1 & 2

Now, that we're run by the Tea Party
Let's fire all the unions, make them work for free.
With God and money we rule the House for now,
Just don't ask us how.

REPUBLICAN CHEERLEADER 1

Are we screwed next year?

DEMOCRATIC CHEERLEADERS 1 & 2

Hell yeah! You haven't got a prayer.

REPUBLICAN CHEERLEADER 2

Senate seemed to be so near.

DEMOCRATIC CHEERLEADERS 1 & 2

No way, you haven't got a prayer.

CHORUS

Haven't got a prayer!

TIME WARP (Rocky Horror Show/Glee)

SPEAKER

And now the part, where we sing 'bout ourselves.
I apologize, boss, if this causes any stress.
But fair is fair, and no one is exempt here,
So now it's time, to poke fun at the press.

PRESS CHEERLEADER 1

I remember, when newspapers were dying
Network ratings in the dumps, it surely looked like the end.
The furloughs were appalling, but then Bloomberg started calling.
We're back in business again.

CHORUS

We're back in business again.

PRESS CHEERLEADER 2

There's Arianna on the left.

PRESS CHEERLEADER 1

Glenn Beck's on the right.

PRESS CHEERLEADER 2

Juan Williams works for Fox now.

PRESS CHEERLEADER 1 NPR?

Not so bright.

PRESS CHEERLEADER 2

Is that Jul-i-an Assange there?

PRESS CHEERLEADER 1

No, he's not that insane.

BOTH

But thanks, Jules, your leaks were our gain.

CHORUS

We're back in business again.

REPORTER

I took a flogging, before I started blogging,
Each morning I write tweets, then switch to video.
I like to write at Starbucks, it's like the newsroom 'cept it don't suck,
Maybe I'll go to work at Patch, and cover 'burbs in Kokomo.
Politico sent out a news alert, in just one hour it's the thirty-third.
The cycle never stops, 24-7 in the know.
Enrollment's up in J-school. We're the cool kids but not that cool.

DEMOCRATIC AND REPUBLICANS CHEERLEADERS AND REPORTER

So welcome to Gridiron, my friends.

CHORUS

Welcome to Gridiron, again.
Wel-come to Grid-iron, a-gain.

KNOCK AROUND BARACK (Rock Around the Clock, Bill Haley)

Cast portraying Republican Reps. Eric Cantor, Kevin McCarthy, Paul Ryan, Darrell Issa

CANTOR

House went up 63, thanks a lot Barack
Six more seats in the Senate, thanks a lot Barack
Boehner's now the Speaker, and the Dem's are still in shock
We're gonna knock Barack around the clock
Pick your spending cuts, and come with us
We'll put it all in an Omnibus

RYAN, McCARTHY, ISSA

We're gonna block Barack around the clock
We're gonna block block block it's our bedrock
We're gonna rock gonna rock our great big voting bloc

CANTOR

When health care dies, and earmarks flee
We'll owe a debt to the tea par-ty

TRIO

We're gonna move Obama to the right
We're gonna mock mock mock his election fright
We're gonna talk, gonna talk, and then we might indict

CANTOR

Republicans will have our way
We'll protect your wealth when you pass away
We're gonna knock Barack around the clock
It's just a recipe for more gridlock
We're gonna block, gonna block Barack around the clock.

CHORUS

We're gonna block Barack around the clock
It's a recipe for more gridlock
We're gonna knock, gonna knock Barack around the clock.

A BOEHNER MEDLEY (From: Johnny Angel, Shelley Fabares, and It's My Party, Lesley Gore)

Cast portraying John Boehner

LEAD SINGER

Johnny Boehner (GIRL GROUP: Johnny Boehner), he's our Speaker (he's our speaker)
He's got charm and grace and such élan
We Republicans are thrilled
That he's our No. 1 man

Johnny Boehner (GIRLS: Johnny Boehner), how we love him (how we love him)
He's the one who some of us adore
How we hold our breath when votes
Are counted on the House floor

He gets headaches
All his ducks in a row
Shot down by his own folks
No wonder that he smokes
In his loafers, and his bright-colored ties
At least he wears a shirt
While others online flirt

Johnny Boehner (GIRLS: Johnny Boehner), we still love him (we still love him)
He's so orange, suave and doctrinaire
If his convictions have to die
At least he'll do it with flair

ALL SHOUT: LOOK! HERE HE IS NOW!

BOEHNER (It's My Party and I'll Cry If I Want To)

Nobody knows just how hard it can be
Keeping a caucus in line;
Right wingers go their own way.
They pay their speaker no mind.

I'm try'n to show them some leadership here
Some gravitas and some gu-uts;
How did I end up in bed
With all these Tea Party nuts?

It's my party and I'll cry if I want to,
Cry if I want to, Cry if I want to;
You would cry too if it happened to you.

LADIES OF MAINE (Lady of Spain, Eddie Fisher)

Cast portraying: Republican Sens. Jim DeMint; Sen. Rand Paul; Sen. Olympia Snowe

DUET

Ladies of Maine, we abhor you
Loyalty means nothing to you
How could you work with those yahoos?
Just when we needed you most?

Stimulus money, how could you?
Gays and abortion, why would you?
Tea party's now aiming for you
Ladies of Maine, you'll be toast.

CHORUS:

Ladies of Maine, you'll be toast

REPUBLICAN MEMOIRS (Paperback Writer, The Beatles)
Cast portraying George W. Bush, Donald Rumsfeld, and Dick Cheney

BUSH

Hey Dick and Rummy, did you read my book?
It took me DAYS to write, you should take a look
it's based on my mem'ry of decider days
how I got Saddam,
Even when I learned that he had no weapons

CHORUS

He had no weapons

RUMSFELD

Iraq's my story and I do confess
How because of YOU it became a mess
Paul Bremer, Condi Rice and Colin too
Screwed the whole thing up
Never told me that we needed more troops there
Needed more troops there

CHORUS:

Needed more troops there...troops there....troops there...

CHENEY

Mine will come out soon and then I'll settle scores
Like Iraqi prisoners you'll be on all fours
Al Qaeda's working to destroy this place,
Still a real grave threat
But Obama knows that we did the right things

CHORUS:

We did the right things

BUSH, RUMSFELD, CHENEY

If you really like them you can have our rights,
We can make a movie for you overnight.

BUSH: Brad Pitt, RUMSFELD: George Clooney, CHENEY: and Matt Damon too.

They can play our parts
Just as long as they can make us look macho
Make us look macho

CHORUS:

Make them look macho...macho...macho

FINGER IN THE WIND (Candle in the Wind, Elton John)

Cast portraying GOP Sens. John McCain and Lindsey Graham

MCCAIN:

Gays in the military
Used to never bother me at all
I was happy once letting
The Joint Chiefs make that call
And on immigration,
You know my old stance was withdrawn
And my message, it became:
"Hey Juan, get off my lawn." [shout this line]

And it may seem to you I lived last year
With my finger in the wind
Never knowing what to cling to
'Cause I had to win
And when it comes to all your judgments
Frankly, I don't give a damn.
I still have my Senate seat
And my best friend, Lindsey Graham

CHORUS
He still has his Senate seat
And his best friend, Lindsey Graham

LEADER OF THE PAC (Leader of the Pack, the Shangri-Las)
Cast portraying Mitch Daniels and Girl Group

SPOKEN:

MITCHETTE 1

Is she really gonna give to HIM ?

MITCHETTE 2

Well, there she is. Let's ask her.

MITCHETTE 1

Betty - Is that Mitch's PAC you're supporting?

BETTY:

Mm-hmm

MITCHETTE 2

Gee - it must be great giving to Mitch.
Is he doing anything for you?

BETTY

Uhn - uhn

MITCHETTE 1

By the way, where'd you meet him?

SUNG:

Betty:

I met him at the O-M-B
He read tax code and rules to me
You get the picture?

MITCHETTES

Yes, we see

BETTY:

So now I give to the AIMING HIGHER PAC.
(Motorcycle Noise)
Some folks say he's a true heavyweight (Mitchettes: weight, weight)
Though he may come from a really dull state

MITCHETTES

(Watcha mean when ya say that he comes from a really dull state?)

BETTY

They said he had no height
But I fell for his might
That's why I give to the AIMING HIGHER PAC
(Motorcycle Noise)
One day I might want somebody new (Mitchettes: new, new)
But till then Mitch will just have to do

MITCHETTES

(Watcha mean when ya say that ya might want somebody new?)

BETTY

My Hoosier's plans are grand
But sometimes he seems bland

CHORUS

But still she gives to the AIMING HIGHER PAC

THE IMPOSSIBLE TWEET (The Impossible Dream, from Man of La Mancha)

SARAH PALIN character

To tweet the un-thought-about tweet
To own my own name through trademark
To scorn those who opine against me
To shoot caribou on a lark

To give those at C-Pac the shaft
To star in reality shows
To bear the unbearable liberals
To blog about things I don't know

This is my quest
To side-step the press
To run if I want to
Not under duress

To fight for the right
And to lay waste the left
To be willing to refudiate
Without knowledge or heft

And I know if I only stay true
To my Tea Party base
That my books and my speeches will sell
If I just show my face

CHORUS

And her world will be richer for this
Who needs work or an office to seek

PALIN

I'll rise as a modern-day Shakespeare
To tweet the un-thought-about tweet

I'VE SEEN EVERYONE (I've Been Everywhere, Hank Snow)
Cast portraying Karl Rove and various GOP presidential candidates names in the song

ROVE

Well, back in the day, you know
They called me the ARCHitect
I had a certain knack for knowin'
Who the people WOULD elect

But this time I dunno unless
There's someone I've missed
And, listen, man, I've looked at
Every hopeful on the list!

I've seen every one, man
I've seen every one, man
Sure as the mornin' sun, man
They all wanna run, man
Egos by the ton, man
I've seen every one.

I've seen...
Romney, Huckabee, Christie, Giuliani
Johnson, Huntsman, Daniels and Pawlenty
Roemer, Cain, DeMint, Santorum
Trump, Bush, Bachmann, Barbour and Bolton
Perry and Pence and Palin and Paul
Gingrich, too, I've seen 'em all.

Tim is excitin' -- NO, not very
But HE's got Red Hot Smokin' Mary
Cain's an expert with a pizza
Mitch, he's shorter than Scalia
Haley hopes he can win it all,
And history'll get an overhaul.

I've seen every one, man
I've seen every one, man
Sure as the mornin' sun, man
They all wanna run, man
Egos by the ton, man
I've seen every one.

I've seen ...
Huckabee at his weekly weigh-in
Sarah Palin out surveyin'
Eye of Newt and chin of Romney
Guy in drag, that's Giuliani
Mitt, he's drivin' fast and far
With man's best friend strapped to his car.

John McCain, I guess he's history
What he's thinkin', it's a mystery
Where the heck is Harold Stassen
Guess he's pushin' up the grass..an'
Someone mentioned Alan Keyes

CHORUS (Shouted)

Not again!! Oh, spare us please!

CHORUS

We've seen every one, man
We've seen every one, man
Sure as the mornin' sun, man
They all wanna run, man
Egos by the ton, man

ROVE

I've seen every one.

EVERYTHING's COMING UP ROSES (Gypsy)

Cast portraying Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid

PELOSI

Things are swell!

REID

Things are fine!

PELOSI

Harry's still got his JOB, I got mine

REID

Now we're back.

PELOSI

Frick and Frack.
REID

Nancy, everything's coming up roses!
PELOSI

Lost the House
REID

That's okay

PELOSI

Running things was a drag anyway

REID

Budget cuts? Not for us

PELOSI

Honey, we would be holding our noses!

REID

Who needs winning! Power's lost its lus-TER

PELOSI

My head was spinning!
REID

It's our turn to filibus-TER!
PELOSI

We give up! To the right!
REID

Let them get 60 votes every night!
PELOSI

Our stimulus ... will stimulate!
REID

Any year now! Just you wait!
PELOSI

There's really nothing left for us to do!

REID

Nancy, everything's coming up roses for me and you!
PELOSI

Boehner's in charge; let's see how much that he can do!
BOTH

The mess that we left him will mess up his Tea Party!
CHORUS

Everything's coming up roses for you and for me!

JUST LIKE A LIBERAL (Bob Dylan's Just Like a Woman)

Cast portraying Howard Dean

HOWARD DEAN

Nobody feels any change
Since that election night Chicago - it's all the same!
Everyone supposed, we knew `The One' we chose
But lately we seen the emperor has no clothes
Now we're wondering: Who's that man?

(refrain)
He looks just like a lib-ral
Yes he does and he writes books just like a lib-ral
Yes and his knee jerks just like a lib-ral
But he works with ... the Re-pub-li-CANS

John Boehner's his new friend
Can you believe they cut the rich man's tax again?
What were those campaign pledges worth?
Quell the oceans, heal the earth
Don't ask don't tell the country of your birth
End the war, close Guantanamo - "No we can't!"

(refrain)
He's so cool just like a lib-ral
Yes he is Harvard Law School just like a lib-ral
Suffers us fools, just like a lib-ral
SOLOIST and CHORUS: But he rules with Republi-CANS

MY FAVORITE FRIENDS (My Favorite Things from "The Sound of Music")

Cast portraying Sec. of State Hillary Clinton and global leaders named in the skit:

(Spoken) Oh, no! We said WHAT about WHO?

How dare that Wiki-Leaks publish our super-secret cables? Can you imagine
a world where diplomats say what they really think about foreign leaders?

Well it would certainly make it more fun to listen to Hillary Clinton. Here
comes our frequent-flying secretary of state now.

HILLARY CLINTON, singing:

A thin-skinned French MIDGET who goes by Sar-KO-zy
A dirty old man that they CALL Berlus-CO-ni
A nut job named KARzai who we must defend
These are a few of my favorite friends

Kim JONG-il's a drunken delusional FAT man
MedVEDev and Putin are Robin and BATman
In a Mafia state run by Russian made-men
CHORUS: These are a few of my favorite friends

Germany's MERK-el is timid and NER-vous
QuaDAffi's had sexy UKRAINian nurses
Prince ANdrew's bad language can SOMEtimes offend
CHORUS: These are a few of her favorite friends

After long flights
When this job bites
When I'm feeling bleak
I simply imagine my favorite friends
When they see their WI-ki leak

IT WAS NEWS TO ME (You Belong to Me)

Cast portraying CIA Director Leon Panetta:

PANETTA

See the pyramids along the Nile.
Authoritarians were just our style.
Revolutions brewing all the while
How was I to see?

Tunis, Cairo, those kids ran amok
Hid their plans where we would never look
A very secret place they call Facebook
It was news to me.

Could it be that after all those years
Of giving tyrants cash and guns and gear
Egypt, Bahrain all that oil so dear
Won't belong to us?

CHORUS

Won't belong to us!

_________________________________________________

TSA MEDLEY (Heigh-Ho from "Snow White and the 7 Dwarfs" and Give up the Funk)

TSA SCREENER

Heigh-ho! Heigh-ho! To frisk you we must go! We'll reach way down and grope around!
Heigh-ho! Heigh-ho.

Heigh-ho Heigh-ho! Heigh-ho! We'll goose you 'til you glow!
We're going to look, in every nook! Heigh-ho! Heigh-ho!

If you say NO, say NO! To X-Ray you must go! And we'll divulge your every bulge!
Heigh-ho! Heigh-ho!

Heigh-ho Heigh-ho! Heigh-ho! This may feel kind of low!
If it's a pain, then take the train! Heigh Ho! Heigh-Ho

HARRIED AIR TRAVELER

You got a late flight to catch, you're in line, losing time
There's a whole lot of waitin' goin' on (Heigh-ho!)
You feel a hand on your waist, moving 'round, slidin' down
There's a whole lot of feelin' goin' on (Heigh-ho!)

Don't touch my junk! (Heigh-ho!)
CHORUS: Don't touch my junk! (Heigh-ho!)
I know my rights! (Heigh-ho!)
Stay outta my tights! (Heigh-ho!)
When did the courts (Heigh-ho!)
Let you into my shorts? (Heigh-ho!)
Yo, screener punk! (Heigh-ho!)
CHORUS: Don't touch my junk!
_____________________________________________________________

SOMEWHERE OVER THE RAINBOW (from the Wizard of Oz)

Cast portraying Health Sec. Kathleen Sebelius and characters from The Wizard of Oz

SECRETARY SEBELIUS

Somewhere over the rainbow
Mandates lay.
We made sure they won't start 'til
After Election Day.

Somewhere over the rainbow
Cost curves bend,
And the savings we promised
Will cause the debt to end.

But if you have a slacker son
Who's sitting home upon his bum,
He's covered.

And if conditions pre-exist,
You won't lack coverage due to risk.
Don't you just love this?!

Somewhere over the rainbow
Folks will see
A better system if it's fine
with Justice Kennedy.
Some day they'll thank us, yes they will,
But only after
They...get...very ... ill.

TRIANGULATE (Twist and Shout)
Cast portraying Bill Clinton

Well, take it from Bubba now (CHORUS: take it from Bubba)
Tri-ANG-u-LATE! (CHORUS: tri-ang-u-late)
Fake it, fake it, Obama now (CHORUS: fake it Obama)
For me it worked great. (CHORUS: It worked great)

You're going to look so tight (CHORUS: look so tight)
You're going to look so slick (CHORUS: look so slick)
Play the left against the right now (CHORUS: left against right)
Just like I did in 96 (CHORUS: ninety-six)

[8-bar dance break]

CHORUS

Aaah, aaah, aaah, aaah, (squeal)

Well, it's really not that hard now (CHORUS: not that hard)
Tri-ANG-u-LATE! (CHORUS: triangulate!)
Your opponents aren't that smart now (CHORUS: not that smart)
You know they'll take the bait (CHORUS: Take the bait, oooh!)

You're a silver-tongued devil, (CHORUS: silver-tongued devil)
There's no one so deft (CHORUS: none so deft)
You can own the whole center now (CHORUS: own the whole center)
If you freak out the Left (CHORUS: freak out the left!)

CHORUS

Aaah, aaah, aaah, aaah

"MAKE IT STOP" ("Start Me Up" Rolling Stones)

RED CHEERLEADER 1

Yeah we started up
So long ago you thought we'd never stop
Since we started up
You wondered when the show would ever stop

We've been on so long
Bill Daley's nappin' on a table top
Seventh course is done
Alan Greenspan's beggin'make it stop, make it stop, make it, make it, make it stop

We've made you ladies sigh
We've made you grown men cry
We singe but never fry
Sometimes we're cute, sometimes we're mean
Sometimes out meaning is impossible to glean

CHORUS

Time to stop
Time to stop

"THE GRIDIRON PLAYERS'' ("Livin' on a Prayer" Bon Jovi)

BLUE CHEERLEADER 1

They got some nerve to stand up on stage

They're barely employed, they don't act their age
They lust for . . . your gaffes

They been from Dogpatch to Camelot
Coverin' politicians some were clean some not
For tellin' truth to power they're OK but -- for laughs
Is this all they got?

Whoa-oh the Gridiron players
Whoa-no they don't have a prayer
They got a band, pretty costumes to wear
But whoa-no they don't have a prayer

CHORUS

Whoa-oh the Gridiron players
Whoa-no they don't have a prayer
They got a band, pretty costumes to wear
But whoa-no they don't have a prayer

"THE GRIDIRON-RON'' ("Da Doo Ron Ron," Crystals)

RED CHEERLEADERS; BLUE CHEERLEADERS; OLD NEWSBOY;
GOOD-GIRL & BAD-GIRL GROUPS
RED CHEER 1

Tonight we showed the world the way to get along

RED DUET

At Gridiron-ron at Gridiron

RED CHEER 2

Just drink a glass of wine and sing a silly song

CHORUS

At Gridiron-ron at Gridiron
RED DUET

Strange bedfellows
Dancing dosi-dos
'Til the curtains close
CHORUS

At Gridiron-ron at Gridiron

BLUE CHEER 1

Sebelius tried sell us medicine

BLUE DUET

At Gridiron-ron at Gridiron
BLUE CHEER 2

Mitch Daniels rocked us like a crazy man
CHORUS

At Gridiron-ron, at Gridiron
BLUE DUET

Monday we will fight
But we're friends tonight
By the rosy light
Of Gridiron-ron of Gridiron

OLD NEWS

We started up the show in 1885
CHORUS

The Gridiron-ron, the Gridiron

OLD NEWS

Some of us remember 'cause we're still alive

QUINTET

At Gridiron, son, at Gridiron

QUINTET

O say can you see
Sweet Civility
Baby 'tis of thee
We sing at Gridir'n at Gridi-ron

CHORUS REPEATS VERSE

O say can you see . . .

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'Feelings Thermometer': Michelle Obama Ranks 'Warmest' With Voters, Pelosi 'Coldest'

Bruce Drake — 2011-03-07T06:30:00+00:00

Filed under: George W. Bush, Republicans, Mitt Romney, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Ron Paul, Polls, Bill Clinton, Michael Bloomberg, Sarah Palin, Poll Watch, Harry Reid, Michelle Obama, Newt Gingrich, Mitch McConnell, Barack Obama, John Boehner, 2012 Elections

Everyone is used to the familiar "horse race" poll that tells us who is out front when it comes to a campaign, but Quinnipiac University has a different measure for some of today's leading political personalities: namely, who ranks the "warmest" and "coldest" on a "feelings thermometer"?

The winner when it comes to warmest? First lady Michelle Obama, with former President Bill Clinton close behind. The coldest? Sarah Palin and Nancy Pelosi. (Actually, Harry Reid ranks right in between them, but more later on why his result doesn't count as much).

The way Quinnipiac did this poll, which was conducted among registered voters Feb. 21-28, was to ask those surveyed to "choose any number between 0 and 100. The higher the number, the warmer or more favorable you feel toward that person, the lower the number, the colder or less favorable." The pollster then calculated a mean score for each.

But possibly a more bracing result for some of the politicians than being seen as "cold" was the measure of how little some of them are known nationwide, despite the relentless coverage they may get in Washington.

Quinnipiac asked respondents to say if they did not know enough about the person to rate him or her. The list of "least knowns" was topped by many of the Republicans who are considering making a run for president in 2012: former ambassador to China Jon Huntsman (84 percent don't know him); Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana (78 percent); former Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota (67 percent); Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi (65 percent); and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania (63 percent).

Now, back to Harry Reid. He may be the Senate majority leader and was much in the news last year because of his high-profile re-election contest against tea party favorite Sharron Angle, but 37 percent do not know enough about him to express an opinion. That's much less the case with his company at the "cold" end of the list - Palin, who is unknown by only 4 percent, and Pelosi, unknown by 15 percent.

At the other end of the thermometer, first-term Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, who has been a hit on the speaking circuit lately, ranks as the third warmest, but 55 percent don't know enough about him, compared with Mrs. Obama (4 percent), Bill Clinton (2 percent) and President Obama (everyone knows him).

While Democrats feel almost equally warm about President Obama and Bill Clinton, Republicans are fonder of Clinton: His mean "temperature" among them was 41.5, compared with 30.4 for Obama.

The temperatures for Palin and Pelosi are a measure of how polarizing each is. Palin is seen warmly by 63.8 percent of Republicans while Pelosi gets a score of 58.2 from Democrats. But the feelings they inspire in members of the opposite party are cold indeed: Palin gets a 15.6 from Democrats and Pelosi gets a 13.1 from Republicans.

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Still No Clear Frontrunner in Latest Poll on 2012 GOP Presidential Race

Bruce Drake — 2011-02-23T15:35:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Polls, Sarah Palin, 2012 President, Poll Watch, Newt Gingrich

The latest poll on the pecking order of potential candidates for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination shows the same familiar four in the top tier -- Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich -- although Gingrich does not run as close to the other three as he has in some other surveys.

Huckabee leads the pack with 18 percent, followed by Romney and Palin, each at 16 percent, and Gingrich at 9 percent, according to a Gallup poll conducted Feb. 18-20 among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Huckabee moved ahead of Romney after trailing him by 3 points in Gallup's November poll, and Gingrich slipped by 4 points

After the top four, it's Ron Paul at 5 percent and every one else with less than that.

The value of these polls, at this stage of the game, is dubious given how much the name recognition factor counts this far in advance of the campaign season. In 2008, Huckabee had barely been a blip on the radar a couple of months before he won the Iowa caucuses and became a top contender.

Gallup says its poll "clearly underscores that there is no early front-runner."

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CPAC 2011 -- The Only Winners Were Mitch Daniels and Ron Paul

Walter Shapiro — 2011-02-12T23:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, 2012 President, Conservatives, Tea Party, 2012 Elections

The three-day Conservative Political Action Conference ended Saturday afternoon with a meaningless presidential straw poll (if you must know, libertarian gadfly Ron Paul won for the second year in a row). But what CPAC really illustrated (and the bizarro straw poll results underscored) is that the late-starting 2012 GOP race remains so wide open that Bob Dole at age 87 might have a plausible chance for a comeback.

Even though both Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee were too busy with their Fox News slots and paid speaking engagements to appear at this premier celebration of all things conservative, 2008 GOP runner-up Mitt Romney failed to emerge as even a paper-tiger front-runner. In fairness, CPAC has never been Romney's natural constituency. The biggest stir he ever caused at one of these things was when he used this forum to announce that he was suspending his 2008 presidential bid (after edging John McCain in a CPAC straw poll.)

Ron Paul Wins CPAC Straw Poll; Mitt Romney Comes in Second

Carla Baranauckas — 2011-02-12T17:34:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Sarah Palin, 2012 President, Conservatives, Campaigns, Newt Gingrich, Tea Party, 2012 Elections

For the second successive year, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas won the presidential straw poll conducted at the Conservative Political Action Conference, or CPAC, capturing 30 percent of the vote.

Former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts was second in the straw poll with 23 percent of the vote, Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio announced at the conference in Washington held by the American Conservative Union. The others on the ballot finished far behind.

Ron Paul 'Strongly Considering' Another Run for White House

Christopher Weber — 2011-02-08T19:52:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Ron Paul, 2012 President, Congress, Conservatives, White House, 2012 Elections

Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), the outspoken libertarian who touted limited government long before the tea party started brewing, is thinking about another campaign for president.

The 75-year-old congressman "is strongly considering a run in 2012 and is currently assessing his prospects," Jesse Benton, senior adviser to Paul's Campaign for Liberty organization, told Fox News Tuesday.

And in case there was any doubt that he might throw his hat in, Paul has accepted an invitation to speak next month in the presidential proving ground of Iowa. On March 7, he will address the social conservative group the Family Leader, as part of its lecture series, Politico reported.

Rep. Tim Pawlenty (R-Minn.), a potential GOP candidate for president, was to address the group Tuesday. Other White House hopefuls, including Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Wisc.) and former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, will also deliver Family Leader speeches this spring.

Paul's 2008 presidential campaign got off to a strong start, thanks to intense grassroots support and a keen grasp of the Interent as an organizing tool. Running as a libertarian-leaning Republican, he broke fundraising records and won several straw polls before fading in the heat of primary season.

In 1988, Paul ran on the Libertarian Party ticket.

His son, Rand Paul, was elected to the Senate from Kentucky in November, thanks largely to the support of the tea party.

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Huckabee Has Highest Favorable Ratings of Potential 2012 GOP Candidates ... For Now

Bruce Drake — 2011-01-10T15:28:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Polls, Sarah Palin, 2012 President, Poll Watch, Newt Gingrich

As we've noted often in Poll Watch, surveys about the 2012 presidential race more than a year in advance of when the first caucus and primary votes are cast probably show more about simple name recognition than their value as a predictor of what will happen. When Mike Huckabee scored an upset victory against the better-known, better-financed Mitt Romney in the Iowa caucuses in 2008, the New York Times noted that he had been "barely a blip on the national scene just two months ago."

This time around, Huckabee is in a very different position on the strength of his rise to the top tier of GOP presidential hopefuls two years ago and his continued high visibility that includes a regular TV talk show. He not only ranks second only to Sarah Palin in name recognition among the potential field of GOP candidates, but he is enjoys higher favorable ratings than any of them among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, according to a Gallup poll conducted Jan. 4-5.

When those who say they have "strong favorable" views of Huckabee are compared to those who express a "strongly unfavorable" opinion, the former Arkansas governor has a net favorable spread of 30 points. He's followed by Newt Gingrich at 24 points, Romney at 23 points and Palin at 22 points.

All four have by far the highest recognition of those names tested by Gallup, with Palin known by 95 percent, Huckabee by 87 percent and Romney and Gingrich at 84 percent. Gallup says that correlates with their favorability ratings for the obvious reason that "Republicans who recognize a given candidate are more likely to have favorable than unfavorable opinions of that candidate."

The pollster produced this graphic to illustrate where the potential candidates stand in the favorability and recognition universe:

The only other prospect in Gallup's list whose name is known by a majority of Republicans is Texas Rep. Ron Paul who is recognized by 73 percent -- no surprise given his devoted following and the attention he attracted in the 2008 race for the nomination.

Others have far lower recognition, but of those who do know them, they are not too far behind the top tier in terms of being seen favorably. Indiana Rep. Mike Pence and former Utah governor and current ambassador to China Jon Huntsman both have a net favorable rating of 19 points followed closely by Paul, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and South Dakota Sen. John Thune.

If these numbers mean anything, Gallup says the point to be taken away from this survey, given the relatively small percentage who have a strong opinion of candidates, is that none of them "at this early point in the campaign can claim to generate strong reactions from rank-and-file Republicans."

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Poll: Obama Doesn't Deserve Re-Election, Faces Close Matchups with Some Republicans

Bruce Drake — 2010-11-22T06:30:00+00:00

Filed under: Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Polls, Sarah Palin, 2012 President, Poll Watch, Newt Gingrich, Barack Obama

Many of the major pollsters and news organizations that conduct surveys have already begun testing the possible candidates for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination and matching them against President Barack Obama. It's an exercise probably more useful in gauging what voters think of them today than how they might feel next year.

That's particularly true in the race for the GOP nomination, but it's also true for the matchups with Obama because of the number of variables, ranging from the direction of the economy, whether the new empowerment of Republicans on Capitol Hill makes the most of their new status or disappoints voters, to the whole constellation of unforeseen events, (like the financial meltdown in 2008).

That said, the latest poll, conducted Nov. 8-15 by Quinnipiac University, does not contain particularly good news for Obama.

Forty-nine percent say he doesn't deserve re-election, 43 percent say he does deserve a second term, and 9 percent are undecided. Independents say he doesn't deserve another term by 51 percent to 35 percent, with 14 percent undecided.

This result is not a big surprise. Other polls that have asked the same or similar questions during the year have produced similar findings, as Obama has paid the price for the continuing economic problems facing the country.

In matchups with several potential Republican nominees, Obama finds himself in close races with Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Romney leads him by 45 percent to 44 percent, and Obama leads Huckabee by 46 percent to 44 percent, which is within the poll's 2-point margin of error. The remainder of those surveyed preferred someone else, said they wouldn't vote or were undecided. Both Romney and Huckabee led Obama among independents.

While Sarah Palin told ABC's Barbara Walters she thought she could beat Obama, he leads her in the poll by 48 percent to 40 percent, with independents, in this case, on his side by 46 percent to 35 percent, and the rest undecided.

Quinnipiac also matched Obama against little-known Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana, which the pollster said was akin to matching Obama against a generic Republican, given Daniels' anonymity. Obama led Daniels by 45 percent to 36 percent. Again, the remainder included those who preferred someone else, didn't plan to vote or were undecided.

Despite grumblings from the liberal wing of the party and those who feel Obama's performance was in part responsible for the midterm losses, the poll found little sentiment for replacing him as nominee. Sixty-four percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners said they didn't want to see a candidate other than Obama run for the Democratic nomination in 2012.

Quinnipiac's Peter Brown concluded from these numbers, "The Democratic base remains squarely behind President Barack Obama when it comes to his re-election, but his weakness among independent voters at this point makes his 2012 election prospects uncertain."

As for the Republican nomination, Quinnipiac, as well as other polls, all pretty much agree on a "top four" at this point, although the standings among them may vary: Palin, Romney, Huckabee and Newt Gingrich. (Quinnipiac did not test Gingrich against Obama in its poll).

Republican 2012 Hopefuls Not Shy About White House Ambitions

Tom Diemer — 2010-11-05T14:22:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Polls, Sarah Palin, 2012 President, Poll Watch, Campaigns, Newt Gingrich, Tea Party, Barack Obama

Emboldened by dramatic Republican gains in Tuesday's election, President Obama's would-be rivals in 2012 are edging toward coming-out parties for a campaign that should be well under way by next spring.

Several from the 2008 field -- Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin -- are in the forefront of the early buzz -- and they've done little to discourage the speculation.

"I haven't made that decision," Romney insists. But the former Massachusetts governor is raising money like crazy and appeared in 25 states on behalf of Republican candidates during the midterm campaign. His political action committee contributed more than $1 million to various GOP causes.

Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, already has a platform with his regular Fox News talk show. He said last summer there is "strong sentiment out there" for him to run and that polls indicate he "does better against Obama than any other Republican."

A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey, taken during the last week in October, gave Huckabee a 52-44 percent lead over Obama in a hypothetical matchup. Romney was preferred 50-45 percent (within margin of error) over the president in the poll of 921 registered voters.

Palin is the wild card and at this point probably the favorite of many activists in the tea party movement, which energized the GOP base in the midterms. Her "mama grizzlies" and other Palin-endorsed candidates won in at least 62 contests and lost in 23. In the course of the campaign, she made a lot of political friends and almost certainly collected some chits for her next campaign -- whenever it may come.

Related: An Open Letter to Would-Be GOP Presidents: Are You Sure You Want the Job?

She's given herself plenty of wiggle room when the conversation turns to 2012 -- as it almost always does in media interviews. Palin has said she is willing to run in two years, "if there's nobody else to do it " -- that is, if no candidate meets her standard for "common sense conservative." By that barometer, a candidate like Romney, presumably could be deemed not conservative enough for the former governor of Alaska.

However formidable she might be in a Republican primary, the CNN poll suggests Palin has some convincing to do when it comes to a national audience. Obama was ahead of Palin 52-44 percent in the CNN sample of prospective voters from both parties.

CNN also asked the 500 respondents, who identified as Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, for their favorites. Huckabee came out on top in that one with 21 percent backing, followed closely by Romney at 20 percent and then Palin with 14 percent.

The Republican field is certain to expand in the coming weeks and months.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said recently he is trying to decide whether a White House campaign is "practical" for him, and he added, "I increasingly think it is." Gingrich, a regular contributor on Fox News, said he'll likely make his intentions clear early next year.

Rep. Mike Pence, (R-Ind.), a long shot -- but a favorite of many conservative voters -- said this week he would give up his leadership position with the new Republican majority in the U.S. House to allow himself more maneuvering room in considering options in 2012. That probably means a campaign for governor of Indiana, but Pence did not rule out the possibility that he could seek higher office.

In addition, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (definitely interested), Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, libertarian Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum are all going to get mentioned.

In the cool of the shortened November days, Republican leaders sense weakness in the White House. But for all of his midterm woes, Obama has time to repair the political damage before the 2012 campaign gets going. A national economy that heats up would be his best ally.

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Rand Paul 'Categorically' Denies College Kidnap Story

Christopher Weber — 2010-08-11T19:53:00+00:00

Filed under: Senate, Republicans, Ron Paul, Scandal, 2010 Elections, Conservatives

A day after threatening to sue GQ magazine for publishing a claim that he and a college buddy in the 1980s abducted a female classmate and forced her to smoke pot, Rand Paul told Fox News he "categorically" denies the accusation.

"This stuff is just outrageous and ridiculous. No, I never was involved with kidnapping. No, I never was involved with forcibly drugging people," said Paul, the Republican candidate for Senate in Kentucky. (See a related post here.)

GQ published a lengthy feature this week outlining the claim by an unidentified former classmate of Paul's at Baylor University in Texas. The woman told the magazine she was blindfolded by Paul and another male student, tied up and pressured to "take bong hits."

The alleged incident occurred more than 25 years ago while Paul, the son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), was a member of a fraternity-like secret society at Baylor that frequently pulled off pranks.

"To produce someone anonymously, and then I'm supposed to somehow respond to an anonymous person from 27 years ago, who in the end says -- whoever this person was, says -- we didn't do any harm to them and it was all in fun and we didn't do anything wrong -- and yet it's being characterized as kidnapping, it's kind of a craziness," Paul told Fox. "But the thing is, we used to have journalist ethics in our country, that you wouldn't report something from one anonymous source, particularly accusing somebody of something like that. It's so ridiculous, I don't know where to start."

On Tuesday the Paul campaign said it would consider suing GQ. "We are investigating all of our options -- including legal ones," Paul's spokesman Jesse Benton told the Washington Post in an e-mail

In a statement, editor in chief Jim Nelson said GQ stands by the story, "and we gave the Paul campaign every opportunity to refute it. We notice that they have not, in fact, refuted it."

Paul's opponent for Senate in Kentucky, Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway, has not commented on the GQ story.

Watch Rand Paul's interview on Fox News:

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Rand Paul Threatens Lawsuit Over Report of College 'Bong' Incident

Tom Diemer — 2010-08-10T10:40:00+00:00

Filed under: Senate, Republicans, Ron Paul, Primaries, Humor, 2010 Elections, Conservatives, Campaigns, Tea Party

Bong hits, secret societies . . . what is this -- a frat party or a Senate campaign?

It's hard to tell sometimes. The Kentucky Senate campaign of libertarian Rand Paul is threatening to sue GQ magazine over its story featuring a woman's claim that Rand and a buddy at Baylor University abducted her and tried to force her to smoke pot in their apartment in the early 1980s.

The woman in the story, said to have been a teammate of Paul's on the Baylor swimming team, is not identified. "We are investigating all of our options -- including legal ones," Paul's spokesman Jesse Benton told the Washington Post in an e-mail. "We will not tolerate drive-by journalism by a writer with a leftist agenda." Update: Paul told Fox News the claim was outrageous and ridiculous. "No, I never was involved with kidnapping. No, I never was involved with forcibly drugging people."

The alleged incident occurred more than 25 years ago while Paul, the son of Texas Rep. Ron Paul, was a member of a fraternity-like secret society at Baylor that specialized in zany pranks often aimed at annoying the administration at the Baptist college. The woman told GQ she was blindfolded, tied up and pressured to "take bong hits." Rand Paul and his pal had "been smoking pot," she said.

GQ Editor-in-Chief Jim Nelson told the Post that his magazine "exhaustively fact-checked" the reporting for the story, which it stood by. "We gave the Paul campaign every opportunity to refute it. We notice that they have not, in fact, refuted it," he said.

Paul, who is the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky, has had several dust-ups with the media since he won the state's primary in May, particularly for his comments on discrimination and the Civil Rights Act.

His father, the congressman, ran for president in 2008 as a Republican with strong libertarian views. Rand Paul, a physician, is a favorite of the Tea Party movement and was named after the author Ayn Rand.

Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway is the Democratic nominee for Senate.

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Rand Paul's Campaign Chairman David Adams Quits

Christopher Weber — 2010-07-13T18:27:00+00:00

Filed under: Senate, Ron Paul

Kentucky Republican Senate candidate Rand Paul's campaign chairman has quit in order to manage the race of a Tea Party-favored candidate for governor.

David Adams said Tuesday he would become campaign manager for a conservative gubernatorial ticket that is being formed, The Associated Press reported. Adams did not name the candidate for governor, or say in what state the new campaign would be mounted.

"He decided he preferred in-state politics to federal politics," Paul campaign manager Jesse Benton said in an e-mail to CNN. "He's a great guy and will be missed."

Adams told the AP his departure from Paul's staff was not a result of any conflicts in the campaign.

Adams was replaced by Benton as campaign manager in a May shake-up that came a week after the campaign scrambled to explain comments by Paul, who refused to fully embrace the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the law that legally ended segregation in the United States. He later insisted he supports the law.

A poll last week found Paul, a libertarian and Tea Party favorite, running neck-and-neck with Democrat Jack Conway, Kentucky's attorney general.

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Obama's Oil Spill Response: On Top of It, or Too Little Too Late?

Alex Wagner — 2010-05-28T00:25:00+00:00

Filed under: Barack Obama, Environment, Ron Paul, Energy, Obama Administration, Oil Spill, White House

On Thursday, President Obama stood in front of a skeptical Washington press corps -- and a skeptical American public -- and defended his administration's response to the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill, saying, "I'm confident that people are going to look back and say that this administration was on top of what was an unprecedented crisis."

It has been 37 days since the Deepwater's catastrophic explosion, which killed 11 workers and spilled millions of barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico, threatening vast underwater ecosystems, shutting down local economies, and infuriating not only residents of the region but the nation as a whole. Obama has been criticized for responding too slowly and not forcefully enough, and for appearing unconcerned about what some have suggested may be the greatest environmental disaster the United States has ever faced.

Reviewing the administration's public statements and press conferences on the subject, the picture that emerges is not necessarily one of willfull neglect, but of a frustrated White House that did not, perhaps, initially grasp the scope of the disaster, and whose hand was forced on an issue it knew very little about. Whether the terms "Deepwater" and "top kill" continue to haunt Obama in the coming months will be determined in no small part by how much longer the oil continues to seep into the sea, and how forcefully he can convince the American public that he is, in fact, in control of a very uncontrollable situation.

Gulf Oil Disaster Timeline:

April 20: A geyser of mud, gas and water erupted on the Deepwater Horizon rig, igniting explosions and a firestorm. Eleven workers were missing and presumed dead.

April 22: The rig sank, and White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs was questioned about the explosion in a press gaggle aboard Air Force One. Asked, "Has [the president] reached out to anyone in Louisiana over the oil rig explosion?" Gibbs responded, "Let me check on that. I don't believe so . . . I know that the Department of Interior secretary and I think the deputy secretary were headed . . . down there because that falls under the Department of Interior's portfolio."

April 26: Search and rescue operations for the workers ceased, and two leaks were discovered. BP estimated 1,000 barrels of oil per day were flowing into the Gulf. Gibbs said: "The Coast Guard has been directing the response to the leaking. That's our foremost priority at this point, doing all that we can to prevent further leaking and to stop any environmental impacts." President Obama tasked Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar with investigating the cause of the accident and proposing new regulations within 30 days.

April 28: Experts acknowledged that stopping the leak could take months. Clean-up crews began controlled burns of the oil. Deputy Press Secretary Bill Burton said, "The president is very closely monitoring the situation . . . People at the highest levels of the administration have been meeting with officials at BP to discuss not just the clean-up there but what happened there."

April 29: It was revealed that the rate of oil flow had been vastly underestimated. Experts now pegged the rate of flow at 5,000 barrels a day. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Administrator Jane Lubchenco responded: "There was [an initial] agreement among BP and NOAA scientists that the likely, approximate rate of flow was around 1,000 barrels a day. It quickly became obvious, however, that there was more oil accumulating at the surface than would be possible at that flow rate . . .The revised upward estimate of 5,000 barrels per day that was announced last night is a reflection of [new] calculations."

Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano addressed BP's use of chemical dispersants, saying, "Nearly 100,000 gallons of dispersant have been used today. We will add to those efforts where we deem necessary . . .But . . .our key focus is making sure that people know what is going on, they understand what relief efforts are under way, what the extent of the response is, what we know, what we don't know about this incident, and how we intend to move forward."

Rear Admiral Brice O'Hara added, "We are prepared for the worst case . . . We have professionals who are on call. We have those professionals that are at the scene, hired through the plan that BP was required to maintain." When asked at what point the federal government might take over the situation from BP, O'Hara said, "We are certainly not at that point now."

April 30: Obama placed a moratorium on permits for new offshore drilling sites until the investigation into the BP spill was complete.

May 2: The president made his first trip to the Gulf region. Onboard Air Force One, Press Secretary Gibbs said, "It is a serious situation. I wouldn't characterize it necessarily as a worsening situation, except that it continues to be a very serious situation with a lot of oil leaking into the Gulf." BP announced it would attempt to place a dome over the well to contain the leakage. Ultimately, it did not succeed.

May 3: Gibbs was asked whether the White House was satisfied with BP's response. He responded, "[BP has] the unique equipment for dealing with this at a depth of 5,000 feet under the floor -- under the surface of the ocean. But we are going to continue to ensure that they're doing all that they need to do from the perspective of state, local and federal authorities... We will keep, as Secretary Salazar said, our boot on the throat of BP to ensure that they're doing all that... is necessary, while we do all that is humanly possible to deal with this incident. Absolutely."

When asked who at BP the president had spoken to, Gibbs answered, "I don't believe the president has spoken with anybody at BP . . .Secretary Salazar convened a meeting with the CEOs of the oil companies last week." When asked whether the administration believed it had received "willfully errant" information from BP, Gibbs replied, "I would have to ask somebody at the Department of the Interior or Homeland Security if they felt otherwise." He also noted, "There were tests over the weekend on the application of sub-sea dispersant, which have thus far performed well and they're continuing to test that."

May 4: Reports emerged that BP's lease on the Deepwater rig had been exempted from environmental impact analysis.

May 5: Asked whether the White House believed BP's exemption from environmental impact analysis was a mistake, Gibbs deferred, saying, "That's part of [Secretary Salazar's] investigation. I don't know the answer."

May 6: The White House announced a plan to make federal assistance available to small businesses in the Gulf region affected by the spill.

May 11: Executives from Halliburton, BP and Transocean were questioned about their roles in the accident. Executives were subsequently accused of "finger pointing." Asked about this, Gibbs said, "I would say the president is deeply frustrated that we have not plugged this leak. Secretary [of Energy Steven] Chu is heading to the area to work with the response team to make sure that we have some of the best and brightest minds down there trying to think through next steps for doing so."

Gibbs was then questioned about an underwater video showing the leak in progress that BP officials had said they would release to the public. At this point, they had not. Gibbs replied, "I believe the Coast Guard has asked for BP to make that available to the press. I don't know who in the administration has seen it . . .We've asked [BP to release the video]." When further pressed as to why BP had not complied, Gibbs said, "You'd have to ask that of BP."

Later, when asked whether BP had been as forthcoming as possible, Gibbs responded, "If we have problems with what they're doing, we have communicated and will continue to communicate to them things that have to be done."

Asked about the president's feeling, Gibbs answered, "The president is frustrated with everything -- the president is frustrated with everybody, in the sense that we still have an oil leak. The president wants to see this leak plugged."

Secretary of the Interior Salazar announced plans to split the Minerals Management Service into two agencies, one tasked with handling royalties from oil and gas and the other in charge of licensing and regulation.

President Obama sent Congress a legislative package that included a proposed increase in oil company liability caps and a higher ceiling on the amount of money that could be expended on recovery per incident from the Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund.

May 14: The president said, "We are using every available resource to stop the oil from coming ashore. I know BP has committed to pay for the response effort, and we will hold them to their obligation. I have to say, though, I did not appreciate what I considered to be a ridiculous spectacle during the congressional hearings into this matter. You had executives of BP and Transocean and Halliburton falling over each other to point the finger of blame at somebody else. The American people could not have been impressed with that display, and I certainly wasn't."

May 17: BP announced success in positioning a secondary pipe at the site of the accident to siphon off part of the oil leak.

May 18: Deputy Press Secretary Bill Burton was asked whether the government was frustrated at having BP as a partner in stopping the leak. He replied, "Our view is that we didn't choose any partner for this catastrophe. What we've done is worked with the responsible party to do everything we can to stop oil from leaking from the bottom of the Gulf and to mitigate the environmental disaster that we're seeing in the water right now. We are obviously working with BP because, frankly, they have the equipment that's necessary in order to get down to the bottom of the Gulf to help plug that hole."

May 20: The EPA announced it was directing BP to discontinue the use of the oil dispersant Corexit (650,000 gallons of which had already been released into the Gulf), due to concerns about its toxicity. Gibbs said the government had sent a letter to BP requesting greater transparency on the accident, including a request for BP to publicly post the video feed of the undersea oil leak. BP released the video later that day.

When asked about a BP estimate that more than 5,000 barrels of oil were spilling daily, Gibbs referred to the letter that the administration had sent BP, saying, "That's one of the reasons the letter is going, to find out more information."

May 22: The president appointed a national commission, led by former Sen. Bob Graham and former EPA Administrator William K. Reilly, to investigate the government's response to the spill.

May 25: The White House announced President Obama would make his second trip to the Gulf region on May 28.

May 26: BP began a "top kill" procedure in an attempt to plug the leak. Its success has not yet been determined.

May 27: Obama ordered a stop to drilling at 33 deep-water Gulf of Mexico rigs for six months, a suspension of exploration off the coast of Alaska, and cancellation of pending lease sales in Virginia and the Gulf. No new deep-water drilling permits will be issued for six months. "My job is to get this fixed," he said. "I take responsibility. It is my job to make sure that everything is done to shut this down . . ."

Director of the Minerals Management Service, Elizabeth Birnbaum, announced she was stepping down from her position.

The same day, an independent commission announced an estimated oil flow of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels a day from the Deepwater site.

May 28: The president was scheduled to return to the Gulf.

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Rand Paul Shakes Up Campaign Staff

Christopher Weber — 2010-05-26T19:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Senate, Republicans, Ron Paul, Primaries, 2010 Elections, Congress

Rand Paul, Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky and son of Texas Congressman Ron Paul, has replaced his campaign manager. The shake -up comes a week after the campaign scrambled to explain comments Rand Paul made during media appearances when he refused to fully embrace the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the law that legally ended segregation in the United States.

Jesse Benton, the campaign's communication director, was named manager Wednesday, replacing David Adams, The Washington Post reported. Benton, who worked for Rep. Ron Paul's (R-Texas) 2008 presidential campaign, pointed out that Adams still holds a prominent position in the Rand Paul camp.

"David Adams isn't being pushed out in any way," Benton said. "This is just a change in roles. I was just a general consultant, but I'll be taking the official title -- David will become campaign chairman. He'll be Rand's key liaison to groups here in Kentucky."

Benton is married to a granddaughter of Ron Paul.

The younger Paul, a libertarian and Tea Party favorite, caused a political ruckus when he appeared to question whether businesses should have to abide by federal civil rights law provisions prohibiting discrimination. Paul made his comments in an interview on MSNBC's Rachel Maddow show. He later insisted he supports the Civil Rights Act.

Paul also made headlines for calling President Obama's criticism's of BP's handling of the Gulf oil spill "un-American" and then canceling a high-profile appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press."

All the negative attention on the heels of his historic victory in the Kentucky primary led Paul to wonder to CNN's Wolf Blitzer why he wasn't afforded a "honeymoon" from the media.

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Rand Paul Calls Obama Administration's Criticism of BP in Oil Spill 'Un-American'

Tom Diemer — 2010-05-21T16:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Senate, Ron Paul, Primaries, Race Issues, 2010 Elections, Congress, Tea Party

Kentucky Senate candidate Rand Paul kept talking Friday, this time saying that the Obama administration's harsh criticism of BP in connection with the Gulf oil spill sounds un-American.

Paul, who got in trouble this week for seeming to suggest he had issues with the 1964 Civil Rights Act forcing government's will on private businesses, said he was offended by the Obama Cabinet's vow to put a "boot heel on the throat of BP." Rand told ABC's "Good Morning America, "I think that sounds really un-American in his criticism of business." It was actually Interior Secretary Ken Salazar who said he would "keep the boot on the neck" of BP to make sure the oil company met its responsibility to clean up the mess in the Gulf caused by the blowout of one of its deep sea wells.

"When does my honeymoon period start? I had a big victory," Paul said in an interview with host George Stephanopoulos, relayed by the New York Times. "I've just been trashed up and down and they have been saying some things that are untrue. And when they say I'm for repealing the Civil Rights Act, it's absolutely false. It's never been my position . . . "

Paul, who won the Senate GOP nomination in Kentucky over a more established candidate, is a favorite of the Tea Party movement and the son of Texas Rep. Ron Paul, a libertarian who ran for president as a Republican in 2008. Rand Paul, an eye doctor, is making his first bid for public office -- and getting a hard lesson in how fast a careless comment can roar through cyberspace.

After saying earlier this week he supported the 1964 law but also thought business owners should have some say in how they conducted their operations, Rand asked Friday why no one was grilling Sen. Robert Byrd, 92, about his opposition to the Civil Rights Act more than 40 years ago. Rand also had a comment on the West Virginia mine disaster which left 29 coal miners dead. Coal mining is also big business in Kentucky and the accident was "very tragic," he said. "Then we come in, and it's always someone's fault. Maybe sometimes accidents happen."

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New Study Tracks Mavericks in Congress (and John McCain Isn't One)

Christopher Weber — 2010-05-09T23:00:00+00:00

Filed under: Senate, House, Democrats, Republicans, John McCain, Ron Paul, Dennis Kucinich, Independents, Congress, Conservatives

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) made headlines last month when he inexplicably flip-flopped on his status as a "maverick," even though the outsider label was a key element of his 2008 presidential campaign.

"I never considered myself a maverick," McCain told Newsweek magazine.

A newly published academic paper determines that, whether he considered himself one or not, McCain was indeed a maverick during much of his Senate career -- but he hasn't been one lately (see graph).

Ben Lauderdale, a Ph.D. student in Princeton's Department of Politics, told The Washington Independent he defines mavericks on Capitol Hill as members who vote "less on the basis of the political dimension that predicts all legislators' behavior and more on particularistic factors unique to themselves."

In non-academic terms, a maverick is ready to break ranks at any time and for a variety of reasons, and his or her voting behavior is much less likely to follow party lines.

Using that definition, Lauderdale employed a statistical analysis to plot the overall "maverick score" of various members of Congress.

For the current Senate, McCain isn't even in the top ten:

Russ Feingold (D-Wis.)
Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.)
Evan Bayh (D-Ind.)
Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)
Ben Nelson (D-Neb.)
Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.)
Harry Reid (D-Nev.)
George Voinovich (R-Ohio)
Kit Bond (R-Mo.)
Thad Cochran (R-Miss.)

The top ten mavericks in the House, according to Lauderdale:

Ron Paul (R-Tex.)
Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio)
Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.)
Bobby Bright (D-Ala.)
Ron Kind (D-Wis.)
Tim Johnson (R-Ill.)
Barbara Lee (D-Calif.)
Walt Minnick (D-Idaho)
Lynn Woolsey (D-Calif.)
Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.)

Read the full Lauderdale paper here.

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Sen. Jim DeMint Backs Rand Paul in Kentucky Race, Bucks McConnell

Tom Diemer — 2010-05-05T13:40:00+00:00

Filed under: Endorsements, Senate, House, Republicans, Barack Obama, Economy, Ron Paul, Primaries, Budget, Obama Administration, 2010 Elections, Conservatives, Deficit

Sen. Jim DeMint, a hard-edged conservative who has emerged as one of President Obama's most outspoken opponents on Capitol Hill, endorsed Kentuckian Rand Paul Wednesday over the establishment candidate in that state's Republican Senate race.

In doing so, DeMint (R-S.C.) encroached on the turf of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who is backing Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson in the May 18 primary. DeMint said he still supported McConnell as Senate leader, the AP said. But jumping into another senator's state to get involved in an intra-party dispute is an audacious move, especially in the GOP, where leaders try to steer clear of such infighting.

McConnell came out for Grayson on Tuesday, saying he rarely endorsed in primary elections, "but these are critical times. . . . We need Trey's conservative leadership to help turn back the Obama agenda." Grayson is also supported by former Vice President Dick Cheney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

But Paul, an eye surgeon and son of 2008 presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul, has been anointed by retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) Sarah Palin and now DeMint.

DeMint said Rand Paul was "not a career politician and he's got the guts to stand up to the massive spending, bailouts and debt that are being forced on us in Washington."

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Can Mitt Romney Outrun Sarah Palin? Handicapping the 2012 GOP Horse Race

Matt Lewis — 2010-04-29T23:15:00+00:00

Filed under: Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Primaries, Sarah Palin, Predictions, 2012 President, Newt Gingrich

On Saturday, May 1, the 136^th running of the Kentucky Derby, some 20 thoroughbreds will run for the roses in the most famous and important race in the sport. That race of 3-year-old colts (and one filly) will be won in just over two minutes. Meanwhile, another exciting horse race - the race to win the GOP presidential nomination - is gearing up. It, too, has a large field, but this race is a marathon that takes four years to complete. Now, the time has come to begin handicapping the 2012 primary race.

This list represents a snapshot of a moment in time, with fluid odds and a constantly changing field. Keep in mind that if this list were compiled a year ago, Mark Sanford's name would have been included - and possibly John Ensign as well. But that's horseracing. Just ask the owners of Eskendereya, the consensus favorite to win the Kentucky Derby, who was pulled out of the race a few days ago.

1. Mitt Romney, 3-1 -- Smart horseplayers bet with their heads, not their hearts. It has been said that Democrats fall in love, but Republicans fall in line. As such, the smart money is to back this horse, and that means the likely nominee will be Mitt Romney. Romney's obvious shortcoming is that the health care plan he shepherded through the legislature in Massachusetts, dubbed "Romneycare," is nearly identical to Obamacare. Romney finished in the money last time. This time, he's the candidate to beat.

2. Sarah Palin, 7-2 - The lone filly in the race, Palin is disdained by the mint julep Republicans, but in today's GOP, there may be more votes among the infield crowd, with its beer chests and lawn chairs, than in the clubhouse luxury boxes - especially in the primaries. This horse has a natural gait and heart, but she's headstrong and difficult to guide - a tough customer for any trainer.

3. Tim Pawlenty, 6-1 -- From hiring top political insiders to forming a leadership PAC, the governor of Minnesota is doing all the things he needs to do to be considered a viable GOP Derby contender. The knock on Pawlenty is that he lacks charisma. Knowing he governs a blue state, Pawlenty has wisely followed John McCain's strategy of wooing conservative bloggers - a group that carries a lot of weight during primary elections. A live contender.

4. Mike Huckabee, 8-1 -- When it comes to public speaking and likeability, the former Arkansas governor may be the most naturally talented politician on the Republican side (maybe it's something in the water in Hope, Ark.?). He still polls strongly among Republicans, and still plays well in Iowa. But Huckabee hasn't been able to raise sufficient sums of money, and appears incapable of running an organized campaign operation. Moreover, he has picked fights with fiscal conservatives, These factors combine to make him a longshot. In addition, there is a question of whether he's motivated this time. His gig at Fox News is the cushy equivalent of a Kentucky stud farm -- and is much less rigorous than the campaign trail.

5. John Thune, 10-1 - As I've previously written, Thune is perhaps the only GOP racehorse who is Barack Obama's athletic equal. He appears poised to run as a dark horse candidate, and when he does, he will be helped by his looks and intelligence, but will have to overcome hurdles such as being a sitting U.S. senator from South Dakota (not exactly the ideal starting gate for a presidential run). He's right about in the middle of the pack, but look for him to make a move if the top-tier candidates stumble early.

6. Mitch Daniels, 12-1 -- Of all the potential 2012 GOP candidates, none has a better pedigree than Daniels. Aside from being Indiana's current governor, Daniels has served as chief of staff to Sen.Richard Lugar, senior adviser to President Ronald Reagan, and director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) under President George W. Bush. An unofficial "Draft Mitch Daniels" sentiment has slowly begun to evolve. This past November, RedState's Erick Erickson tweeted: "I want Mitch Daniels to run for President in 2012." Despite having previously ruled out a bid for the presidency, Daniels recently implied he was considering a run. But, like Fred Thompson in 2008, one wonders if the hype surrounding Daniels would translate into electoral success.

7. Newt Gingrich, 15-1 - In a world where Republicans have been negatively portrayed as the party of "no" and a movement lacking solutions, former Speaker Newt Gingrich provides a constant, brilliant influx of innovative ideas. Despite a series of troublesome endorsements (most notably, Dede Scozzafava), Gingrich's ability to inspire and communicate perhaps gives him a pass.

8. Haley Barbour, 20-1 -- Many pundits would -- out of affection, if nothing else - put a few quid on the governor of Mississippi. Entertaining as well as substantive, Barbour knows how government works. A former RNC chairman and lobbyist, few on this list are as competent or as credible. Barbour, the current chair of the Republican Governor's Association (RGA), is focused on 2010, and it is unclear whether he will run for president. One problem is that Barbour isn't just a southerner, he a caricature of a southern politician. Though he is accomplished and incredibly savvy, it might be difficult for a self-described "fat redneck" to get to the winner's circle in this day and age.

The Field: 12-1

Marco Rubio: He's conservative and Latino, and talented. The big caveat is that Rubio still has to win his U.S. Senate race in Florida (made complicated by Charlie Crist's Independent bid) but as I recently wrote, there are many compelling reasons to take a Rubio for President in 2012 candidacy seriously.

Rick Perry: The governor of Texas says he's not running for president in 2012 - something that is wise to say if you are in the middle of a re-election battle -- otherwise he would appear earlier on this list. Having recently spent some time with Perry, I can vouch for the fact that he is incredibly charismatic and charming - the very qualities one needs to win over voters on the primary trail. The question of whether he plans to run in 2012 is something of a curious one. Shortly before his primary election victory against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (and Debra Medina), Perry's campaign organized a blogger training summit in Austin, Texas (which I spoke at). Texas Monthly saw this move as a Machiavellian strategy meant to begin wooing conservative bloggers for a possible presidential run. Should Perry get in the presidential race, there is no doubt he would be a formidable candidate. On the plus side, Republicans like governors. On the downside, Perry may be unfairly hurt by the fact that Americans are not yet ready to elect another Texas governor as president.

Rick Santorum: As I recently noted, observers make a mistake if they prematurely write off the former Pennsylvania senator. He has the ability to raise a respectable amount of money, and to give a good speech - two qualities that will be important on the primary campaign trail. Santorum will be hurt by the fact that he lacks a home base and that he will have difficulty providing a rationale for why a candidate can go from losing his re-election by almost 20 points to winning a presidential race.

David Petraeus: With the success of "the surge" in Iraq, a strategy developed by the Army general, coupled with a recent visit to the Granite State, Petraeus has piqued the interest of Republicans desperately looking for an outside-the-box alternative to the Romney/Palin paradigm. Unfortunately for them, David Petraeus seems an unlikely presidential candidate. Though he has stopped short of a Shermanesque statement, Petraeus says he won't run, and I am inclined to believe him in regards to 2012.

Rep. Mike Pence: Americans don't, if history is a guide, elect members of the lower house to the presidency. As such, Mike Pence's chances aren't good. Yet Pence is beloved by fiscal conservatives and social conservatives alike. Having heard him speak many times, it's clear he's not afraid to invoke Christian imagery in his speeches. If Huckabee doesn't run, Pence could fill the Huckabee niche.

Scott Brown: When Scott Brown surprised the world by defeating Martha Coakley to take Ted Kennedy's Senate seat (OK, the people's seat), even I couldn't help but contribute to the hype that he might one day run for president. Brown is good looking, charismatic, and (thanks to his high-profile national race) has potential to raise big bucks. Still, he is new to the U.S. Senate, and the presence in the race of Massachusetts stablemate Mitt Romney may complicate Brown's prospects.

Bobby Jindal: Once seen as a rising star, the current Louisiana governor (and former member of Congress) stumbled badly last year when delivering the Republican response to the State of the Union. Then again, Bill Clinton was hooted off the stage at the Democrats' 1988 nominating convention in Atlanta - and was his party's standard-bearer four years later. Yet Bobby Jindal seems to be biding his time, and at the recent Southern Republican Leadership Conference (SRLC) in New Orleans, he announced he would not run for president in 2012. Jindal is still young. Don't count him out for 2016.

Ron Paul: His devotees are nearly fanatical in their appreciation for this quirky, libertarian-leaning Texas congressman. There's just not nearly enough of them.

I hope to update this list as things progress; this is the first of what will hopefully be a series of 2012 horse race columns. A famous Hunter S. Thompson column was titled "The Kentucky Derby is decadent and depraved." If that's right, it's not a perfect analogy for those of us who obsess on presidential politics two years before the race. So pour a mint julep and get ready for a race to remember.

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Jim Bunning Backs Rand Paul for His Senate Seat, Bucking GOP Establishment

Tom Diemer — 2010-04-15T12:31:00+00:00

Filed under: Senate, House, Republicans, Ron Paul, Primaries, Taxes, Polls, 2010 Elections, Congress, Conservatives

Sen. Jim Bunning, the contrarian Republican senator and onetime flame-throwing major league pitcher, has gone against the GOP establishment in Kentucky and endorsed Senate hopeful Rand Paul, son of the 2008 presidential candidate, Rep. Ron Paul.

Paul, an eye surgeon and anti-tax activist, has emerged as the favorite in the May 18 Republican primary against Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the preferred pick of the state's Republican establishment to succeed Bunning, the Wall Street Journal reported. Grayson has been endorsed by former Vice President Dick Cheney.

Bunning's impending retirement after two terms opened up the seat. In a statement Wednesday, he said Paul "will be his own man in Washington, not beholden to the special interests and beltway insiders who come looking for handouts."

Bunning, a member of baseball's Hall of Fame, aggravated some of his Senate colleagues last month when he held up a $10 billion extension of unemployment benefits because it was not funded. That didn't win him many friends on Capitol Hill or at unemployment offices, but his stubbornness warmed the hearts of fiscal conservatives.

His choice for the Senate, Rand Paul, is cut from the same cloth as his father, the Texas Republican and also a doctor. Ron Paul. a critic of government spending and the Iraq war, has run for president as a Republican and as a Libertarian Party candidate.

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Huckabee Passes Romney in Poll on 2012 GOP Presidential Contest

Bruce Drake — 2010-04-13T16:32:00+00:00

Filed under: Republicans, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Ron Paul, Primaries, Polls, Sarah Palin, 2012 President, Poll Watch

Mike Huckabee has overtaken Mitt Romney in (a way-too-early) survey of Republicans asking who they would support for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination if the primary was held today.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll, conducted April 9-11, had Huckabee leading Romney 24 percent to 20 percent. Last month, Romney had the lead by 22 percent to 17 percent.

Sarah Palin comes in third at 15 percent closely followed by Newt Gingrich at 14 percent. Texas Rep. Ron Paul gets 8 percent and everyone after that is in low single digits.

Palin was seen unfavorably in the poll by 55 percent compared to 39 percent who regarded her favorably. That was a big negative jump from January when 46 percent saw her unfavorably and 43 percent favorably.

Romney was seen favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 34 percent, with 12 percent saying they never heard of him and 14 percent undecided (only 2 percent never heard of Palin).

Huckabee's favorable-to-unfavorable ratio was 43 percent to 29 percent with 12 percent saying they had never heard of him and 16 percent undecided, while voters split evenly at 38 percent as far as Gingrich's favorables and unfavorables. Fourteen percent hadn't heard of Gingrich and 11 percent were undecided.

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