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Generic ballot
Low or High Turnout? GOP Has Big Advantage Either Way in the Midterms
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyGallup is noted for its "generic" congressional ballot which it says has historically been a good predictor of outcomes in the battle for the House. Now that it is so close to Election Day, the pollster has moved to a model that samples likely voters -- those most motivated to turn out -- as opposed to all registered voters, who may or may not show up. The results: In a high turnout scenario, the Republicans lead by 53 percent to 40 percent when voters are asked which party's candidate they would vote for in their district. In a lower turnout scenario, the Republican edge is 56 percent to 38 ...
Generic Congressional Polls: Believe Them . . . or Not?
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyIt's no surprise that the topic attracting the lion's share of the attention this campaign year is Republicans' chances of regaining control of the House after two disastrous election cycles (with the possibility that the Senate may switch hands starting to be taken seriously, as well). And perhaps one of the most-watched measures of how things are going is the generic congressional ballot. The question on the generic ballot is usually some variation of this: "If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives in November were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate ...
New Wave of Polls Brings Bad News for Obama and the Democrats
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyBad news in the polls has become the norm for President Obama and congressional Democrats as the midterm elections draw near, and a batch of new surveys show Obama's approval rating at a low ebb, high negatives for his handling of the economy and a continued trend toward the Republicans in the fight for Congress. Here's a look at the top findings of surveys by the Washington Post/ABC News, conducted Aug. 20-Sept. 2; the Wall Street Journal/NBC News, conducted Aug. 26-30; and, CNN/Opinion Research Corp., conducted Sept. 1-2. (Some of CNN's findings were released separately.) Obama job ...
GOP Backers in Midterm Elections Driven by Opposition to Obama, Democrats
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyAmericans who favor Republicans to win control of Congress are motivated more by opposition to President Obama and Democrats than they are by their support for the GOP and its candidates, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted May 6-10. Sixty-four percent of those who back the Republicans in the midterm elections say it is to oppose Obama and Democratic candidates while 31 percent say it is because they support the Republican Party and its standard bearers. By contrast, those who want to see Democrats maintain control of Congress are almost evenly divided in their reasons ...
'Enthusiasm Gap' Between Republicans and Democrats Shrinks
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyThe "enthusiasm gap" between Republicans and Democrats has narrowed heading into this year's congressional elections, although Republicans continue to have the advantage, according to a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted May 4-5. Thirty-four percent of Republicans say they are "extremely interested" in this year's midterms compared to 24 percent of Democrats. That margin is smaller than it was in April, when the Republican lead was 42 percent to 20 percent. A Gallup poll conducted April 26-May 2 had also showed the gap shrinking with the Republican advantage over the Democrats among ...
Democrats Losing Edge to Republicans on 'Whom Do You Trust?'
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyDemocrats are losing their edge over Republicans when it comes to whom Americans trust to do a better job in coping with the nation's problems over the next few years, according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted Feb. 4-8. Forty-three percent trust Democrats more while 37 percent put their faith in Republicans, with 17 percent trusting neither. Last November, Democrats were favored by 47 percent to 31 percent, with 17 percent trusting neither. In February, their margin had been 56 percent to 30 percent with 9 percent trusting neither. The margin of error in the current poll is 3 ...
Republicans Pass Democrats in Congressional Preference Ballot
By Mark Impomeni - Politics DailyThere is a surprise for Democrats and President Obama in the polls on this 100th day of the Obama presidency that could put a damper on the celebrations, especially among Congressional Democrats. Rasmussen Reports published new results for its generic Congressional ballot, and for only the second time in the past five years, Republicans topped Democrats in voters' preference for Congress. And both of those instances have occured since January. Forty-one percent of voters now say that they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district versus just thirty-eight percent who would ...
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