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Generic congressional ballot
Gallup's Final Midterm Poll: Republicans Poised to Retake the House
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyGallup has been doing the "generic" congressional ballot polls since 1946 with considerable success, so its likely voter result is always closely-watched. The numbers are only surprising given the size of the margin when taken together with all the other national polls this weekend: the Republicans have a 55 percent to 40 percent lead, with 5 percent undecided. Gallup says that lead is "large enough to suggest that regardless of turnout, the Republicans will win more than the 40 seats needed to give them the majority in the House." The poll was conducted Oct. 28-31. Polling analyst Nate ...
Gallup: Likely Midterm Voters Favor Republicans and Conservatives
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyThe pool of voters considered likely to go to the polls this November tilts strongly conservative and Republican with moderates and Democrats at their lowest ebb when compared to the last four midterm elections, according to Gallup's analysis of its data collected between Sept. 23 and Oct. 3. Different pollsters arrive at how they construct their sample of likely voters in different ways, which is a key factor in why the various results of the closely watched generic congressional ballot can offer different snapshots of the direction in which changes are going. A good example occurred with ...
Low or High Turnout? GOP Has Big Advantage Either Way in the Midterms
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyGallup is noted for its "generic" congressional ballot which it says has historically been a good predictor of outcomes in the battle for the House. Now that it is so close to Election Day, the pollster has moved to a model that samples likely voters -- those most motivated to turn out -- as opposed to all registered voters, who may or may not show up. The results: In a high turnout scenario, the Republicans lead by 53 percent to 40 percent when voters are asked which party's candidate they would vote for in their district. In a lower turnout scenario, the Republican edge is 56 percent to 38 ...
GOP 'Enthusiasm' Remains Higher Than Democrats' as Election Day Nears
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyThe latest measure of the "enthusiasm gap" as Election Day draws near documents again what polls have been showing for months: the percentage of Republicans energized about the midterms is substantially higher than is the case for Democrats, according to a Marist College/McClatchy poll conducted Sept. 14-16. A third of registered voters overall say they are "very enthusiastic" about voting this November. Forty-six percent of Republicans are very enthusiastic compared to 30 percent of Democrats, while independents are the least engaged with 23 percent in the "very enthusiastic" column. For ...
Generic Congressional Polls: Believe Them . . . or Not?
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyIt's no surprise that the topic attracting the lion's share of the attention this campaign year is Republicans' chances of regaining control of the House after two disastrous election cycles (with the possibility that the Senate may switch hands starting to be taken seriously, as well). And perhaps one of the most-watched measures of how things are going is the generic congressional ballot. The question on the generic ballot is usually some variation of this: "If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives in November were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate ...
New Wave of Polls Brings Bad News for Obama and the Democrats
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyBad news in the polls has become the norm for President Obama and congressional Democrats as the midterm elections draw near, and a batch of new surveys show Obama's approval rating at a low ebb, high negatives for his handling of the economy and a continued trend toward the Republicans in the fight for Congress. Here's a look at the top findings of surveys by the Washington Post/ABC News, conducted Aug. 20-Sept. 2; the Wall Street Journal/NBC News, conducted Aug. 26-30; and, CNN/Opinion Research Corp., conducted Sept. 1-2. (Some of CNN's findings were released separately.) Obama job ...
Republicans Reach Record-High Lead Over Democrats on Congressional Ballot
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyRepublicans have moved out ahead of Democrats on the congressional "generic" ballot by the largest margin that Gallup has recorded in its history of tracking the midterm elections. Registered voters preferred the Republican candidate in this year's races by a margin of 51 percent to 41 percent, up from the 47 percent to 44 percent margin in Gallup's last survey, according to its tracking data for Aug. 23-29. Gallup has been tracking the generic ballot since 1942. The other bad news for the Democrats is the size of the "enthusiasm gap" they face against the Republicans. Fifty percent of ...
GOP Backers in Midterm Elections Driven by Opposition to Obama, Democrats
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyAmericans who favor Republicans to win control of Congress are motivated more by opposition to President Obama and Democrats than they are by their support for the GOP and its candidates, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll conducted May 6-10. Sixty-four percent of those who back the Republicans in the midterm elections say it is to oppose Obama and Democratic candidates while 31 percent say it is because they support the Republican Party and its standard bearers. By contrast, those who want to see Democrats maintain control of Congress are almost evenly divided in their reasons ...
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