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enthusiasm gap
Election Day: That Was Then. This Is Now.
By Robert and Donna Trussell - Politics DailyFollow the Trussell cartoons on Twitter at ChaosTheoryPD ...
Ignore Your Inner Cynic and Vote on Tuesday
By Donna Trussell - Politics Daily"Tribute to Her," uploaded to the Internet on Nov. 7, 2008, is a slideshow of Election Day photographs. YouTube member SailorBrownie described her post as a "dedication to all those Black Americans who went out on Tuesday and voted. We made history." While it's not altogether clear who is the "Her" in the title of the video, it might as well be the woman collapsed on the floor in tears. A girl nearby touches her cheek with a little confusion and a lot tenderness for the woman who is, most likely, her mother. The pictures are set to the Beatles song, "Blackbird" -- a good choice, considering ...
Poll: Democrats Doing Better in Some Districts, but Obama Is a Negative
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyGoing down the stretch to the midterm elections, Democrats have improved some of their numbers since June in the battle for Congress, but President Obama appears to be a significant drag on Democrats running in competitive districts that the party now holds, according to a poll conducted Oct. 7-10 for National Public Radio. The poll surveyed likely voters in 86 of the most competitive Democratic districts and 10 Republican-held districts where Democrats have a decent chance to win. The "targeted" districts in which Democrats were vulnerable were divided into two tiers: those that are now ...
Republicans Lead Senate Races in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Poll Says
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyWhile all three races are still competitive, Republican Senate candidates currently have the lead in the hard-fought states of Colorado, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin with just over four weeks left until Election Day, according to polls conducted Sept. 26-28 by the Marist Institute for the McClatchy newspapers. The poll of the three states found that Republicans are benefiting from the "enthusiasm gap" in each. Other factors working in the GOP's favor are the issue of the still-struggling economy and President Obama's falling popularity, coming in states that he had carried by 9 points or more ...
Disillusioned by Obama's Policies, Independents Turn Toward GOP
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyFueled by a big shift among independents disillusioned with President Obama's policies, Republicans have taken a 50 percent to 43 percent lead among likely voters when it comes to a choice between the GOP and Democratic candidates for Congress in their districts, according to a Pew Research Center poll conducted Aug. 25-Sept. 6. Pew said that independents, who were a force behind Obama in 2008 and Democratic candidates in the 2006 midterm elections, now have swung behind Republican candidates by margins as large as they were in those years. The sample of the overall electorate in the Pew ...
GOP 'Enthusiasm' Remains Higher Than Democrats' as Election Day Nears
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyThe latest measure of the "enthusiasm gap" as Election Day draws near documents again what polls have been showing for months: the percentage of Republicans energized about the midterms is substantially higher than is the case for Democrats, according to a Marist College/McClatchy poll conducted Sept. 14-16. A third of registered voters overall say they are "very enthusiastic" about voting this November. Forty-six percent of Republicans are very enthusiastic compared to 30 percent of Democrats, while independents are the least engaged with 23 percent in the "very enthusiastic" column. For ...
Generic Congressional Polls: Believe Them . . . or Not?
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyIt's no surprise that the topic attracting the lion's share of the attention this campaign year is Republicans' chances of regaining control of the House after two disastrous election cycles (with the possibility that the Senate may switch hands starting to be taken seriously, as well). And perhaps one of the most-watched measures of how things are going is the generic congressional ballot. The question on the generic ballot is usually some variation of this: "If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives in November were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate ...
Republicans Reach Record-High Lead Over Democrats on Congressional Ballot
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyRepublicans have moved out ahead of Democrats on the congressional "generic" ballot by the largest margin that Gallup has recorded in its history of tracking the midterm elections. Registered voters preferred the Republican candidate in this year's races by a margin of 51 percent to 41 percent, up from the 47 percent to 44 percent margin in Gallup's last survey, according to its tracking data for Aug. 23-29. Gallup has been tracking the generic ballot since 1942. The other bad news for the Democrats is the size of the "enthusiasm gap" they face against the Republicans. Fifty percent of ...
Pat Toomey Leads Joe Sestak in Pa. Senate Race, Helped by Greater GOP Enthusiasm
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyRepublican Pat Toomey is running ahead of Democrat Joe Sestak in the race to fill the seat of Pennsylvanian Sen. Arlen Specter by 40 percent to 31 percent among likely voters, with 26 percent undecided, according to a Franklin & Marshall College poll conducted Aug. 16-23. The margin of error is 5.4 points. When the poll is expanded to all registered voters, Toomey's lead is a lesser 31 percent to 28 percent with 38 percent undecided. The margin of error for that sample is 4.4 points. We frequently lean on polling analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com to help readers compare these two ...
'Enthusiasm' Factor Helping Republicans in Ohio Senate, Governor Races
By Bruce Drake - Politics DailyRepublicans have a big edge when it comes to the "enthusiasm" factor among Ohio voters, and their candidates have the edge in the races for governor and senator, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Aug. 6-8. Former Republican Rep. John Kasich is leading Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland in the governor's race by 48 percent to 39 percent. Rob Portman, another former GOP congressman as well as a cabinet member in George W. Bush's administration, leads Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher by 43 percent to 36 percent. The margin of error is 4.3 points. Seventy-five percent of registered ...
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