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Handicapping the 2010 Election: The Five Biggest Mysteries
By Walter Shapiro - Politics DailyFifteen weeks until the election, political prophets are peddling the kind of glib certainty about the future normally found at an astrologer's convention. From Joe Biden ("I don't think the losses are going to be bad at all") to House Republican Rep. Pete Sessions ("We will be slightly over 40") forecasting a GOP majority on NBC's "Meet the Press," each predictable partisan prediction is treated with the gravity of a pronouncement from the Oracle at Delphi. Respected non-partisan political analysts like Charlie Cook are declaring, "Democrats could lose the House if the election were held ...
Obama's Poll Numbers Are on the Rise
By David Knowles - AOL News(Feb. 1) – After months of declining poll numbers, President Barack Obama's approval rating has begun rising again. Two new polls, one by Rasmussen Reports and the other by Gallup, show a recent uptick of support for the president as he begins his second year in office. In its daily tracking poll, Gallup finds that 50 percent of Americans approve of the way Obama is handling his job, while 44 percent say they disapprove. According to the polling organization, the rise in the approval number "follows 11 straight days of Gallup reporting in which Obama's approval rating was below the ...
Contrary to Prior Report, Three Different Polls Give Obama High Marks
By Dylan and Ethan Ris - Politics DailyRegular readers of Political Machine may have perused our site's earlier report, Obama's Disapproval Rating Reaches New High, and come to the conclusion that the wheels are coming off the presidential wagon. We'd like to offer a different perspective, with the help of four national polls.First, the poll referenced in the "Disapproval" article. That was from Rasmussen Reports, which on the one hand is well-respected for its accuracy in the 2008 election. On the other hand, the poll is featured on a web page with banner quotes from Larry Kudlow, Michael Barone and Bill Frist and with ads ...
Rasmussen: Just 53% of Americans Think Capitalism Better than Socialism
By David Knowles - Politics DailySomething of a surprising result from a new Rasmussen poll that asked Americans:Which is a better system - capitalism or socialism?The results? 53% said capitalism is better. 20% said socialism. And 27% said they weren't sure. Now, this is something of a tricky question given that American capitalism is diluted with all sorts of socialist practices--from our tax code, to our education system, to the common defense. Even trickier is agreeing upon what constitutes socialism. Are we using Western Europe's model? Singapore's? China's? They vary pretty wildly, after all. What struck me about these ...
Polls Continue to Show Obama Job Approval Decline
By Dave - Politics DailyRasmussen Reports: The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that 36% of the nation's voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-two percent (32%) now Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of +4, his lowest rating to date (see trends).At this rate we're only a few weeks away from when the lines cross, something I never expected to happen so soon. Yes, it's Rasmussen, and other polls show considerably higher numbers, so scratch that and just look at the trend. At Pollster, you ...
Economic Uncertainty Drives Obama's Poll Numbers Lower Than George W. Bush's
By Mark Impomeni - Politics DailyIn an article in Friday's Wall Street Journal, Democratic pollster Douglas E. Schoen and independent pollster Scott Rasmussen analyze President Barack Obama's recent polling numbers and conclude that the new Administration is quickly polarizing America. The surprising results show that President Obama's net approval rating is actually lower than President George W. Bush's at the same point in his presidency.Polling data show that Mr. Obama's approval rating is dropping and is below where George W. Bush was in an analogous period in 2001. Rasmussen Reports data shows that Mr. Obama's net ...
Obama's Lead: Growing, Growing. . .
By David Knowles - Politics DailyThis race is a long way from over, but even arch-conservative Charles Krauthammer seems to see the writing on the wall:You can't blame McCain. In an election in which all the fudamentals are working for the opposition, he feels he has to keep throwing long in order to keep hope alive. Nonetheless, his frenetic improvisation has perversely (for him) framed the rookie challenger favorably as calm, stead and cool......he's [Obama has] got both a first-class intellect and a first-class temperament. That will likely be enough to make him president.Snap polls show independent voters prefered Obama ...
Palin Favorability Fading?
By Dave - Politics DailyFiveThirtyEight.com:The Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos now has Palin's favorability-unfavorability scores at 45-44 -- just a +1. Six days ago, when the poll, launched, she was at a 52-35, a +17.And I know that some of you don't like or don't trust this poll -- for reasons that I think are a little silly -- but there is a similar decline in her numbers in the Diageo/Hotline poll. Her favorability numbers in yesterday's Hotline poll -- today's isn't out yet -- were a 48-36, or a +12. But a week ago, on September 8, she had been at a 48-24, a +24.Interesting and something that I could easily ...
Poll Update: Bounce for McCain
By Dave - Politics DailyWith the results I've seen so far I'm confidently declaring McCain the winner of the VP and convention bounce events. On August 24th, on the eve of the Lieberman selection, Obama was holding a narrow but steady 2 point lead in the race according to RealClearPolitics. First came Obama's underwhelming choice of Joe Biden as his VP, and then we had the DNC convention which was clearly a success and resulted in a 5 point bounce for Obama by late last week. Obama's time in the news was extremely short lived as on Friday morning John McCain upended the contest as we thought we knew it and it hasn't ...
Palin Polls
By Dave - Politics DailyWe have some early polls now from Rasmussen and others. Rasmussen gives us some good detail: ...a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 53% now have a favorable opinion of Palin while just 26% offer a less flattering assessment. ...By way of comparison, on the day he was selected as Barack Obama's running mate, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden was viewed favorably by 43% of voters. Sounds like she's getting off to a right start. As for voters not affiliated with either major party, 37% are more likely to vote for McCain and 28% less likely to do so. Those numbers are a bit more ...
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